Armenia leaves CSTO

[BlueOak]

Armenia leaves CSTO
 

It's early for this news. but I've seen one pro-Russia source confirming it, but that's it so far. I imagine that much social unrest will suddenly happen in the country under pressure from Russia and BRICS, don't be surprised if that's the case.
 

Two different sides of the story.

Edited June 13 by BlueOak

[Hatfort]

As soon as Armenia left the Russian wing, Azerbaijan used the chance and took the disputed land of Nagorno Karavaj. It also helped them that Azerbaijan discovered good oil reserves and if I'm not wrong they are on good terms with Turkey. And didn't the Iranian president die visiting them? So them too. Armenia needed Russia more than Russia needed Armenia, that's how it looks to me.

Obviously, Russia has all its efforts on Ukraine now, but its economy is far from breaking, it got better after the Western sanctions. Only oligarchs had huge amounts of money out of Russia, the West took it, and now those oligarchs are even more dependent on Putin. Now Russians can't trust the $ or €, so they keep their money in instead of out, it's not them who have lost. They can't commerce with Europe? China and India filled that void too.

Georgia dodged a bullet by not electing a NATO and West puppet that got poured some money. It's crazy they are being criticized for passing laws to stop foreign interference like all Western countries have, that's a clear double standard. Their economy depends on Russia, no way Europe would or could take that role.

[BlueOak]

First off, apologies for the obvious spelling mistake; it was early.

@Hatfort

Some outreach was made to Armenia, but I don't know how it will go; it's a complicated region now.
Seeking EU Ties: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/armenia-to-quit-pro-russian-alliance-seeks-eu-ties/ar-BB1o9LH6

Its the same with Turkey and Georgia seeking EU ties.
 

I agree that China and India somewhat filled the void in Russia's economy. Is there oil in Nagorno Karavaj also? I know you were speaking more generally on the recent oil discoveries in the region, but I couldn't find information either way.

I'd be interested to get your take on why the EU couldn't take the role of trading with Georgia, or this region more broadly. Especially if the condition was Turkey entered the EU which would probably be necessary. I'd genuinely be interested because West Asia and Central Asia are regions of the world we don't see much information on here.

Obviously, proximity is huge, and I understand Russia owns a lot of the rail connections, but if Turkey joined, proximity would be the same either way.

[Hatfort]

@BlueOak

It's a very complicated region, indeed, and quite interesting. I'm not an expert by any means, but I've recently learned a bit about it. They are all ex-Soviet countries. Armenia is a Christian-majority country and Azerbaijan is a Muslim one. Nagorno Karabaj is the disputed land between the two and there have been many wars and a lot of deaths over it, but I think Russia had been mediating between them last decades, I'd say in favor of Armenia.

I don't think Nagorno Karabaj has oil, it's Azerbaijan itself. So that means money, trade with Turkey at least, and they got to build a better army in recent years, then they got the upper hand in the conflict, and Russia has problems on its own at the moment to get involved in this. Even more if Armenia willingly cuts its relations with Russia, then they are on their own.

About Georgia, Russia is the main buyer of the things that they produce, it is a fertile land. If they turn their back on them in favor of their enemies, Russia's logical response will be to buy those goods elsewhere. Europe is already well provided for those too, they are not interested in buying more, so I don't think they can take the place of Russia and maintain Georgia's economy.

[Hatfort]

Also, I've been reading some news about Turkey and Serbia considering joining BRICS. There's a cultural clash between Turkey and the EU, and it may get a better fit in there.

BRICS started with China, Russia, India, and Brazil in 2006, and was followed by South Africa a year later. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were invited to become members with effect from 1 January 2024.

I think Argentina was going to as well, but obviously Milei has other bosses, so that fell apart. Wrong move, if you ask me.

All this is a huge deal and can change the power correlations in the world.