Center Right and Far Right Swing in EU 2024 Vote

[BlueOak]

The EU Right Shift
https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/european-results/2024-2029/

Nationalist Right are taking power in France:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22p9dl415o
Macrone is calling an election, bad timing and bad news.

German EU Elections take a similar turn, Far-Right take second place
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/germany-afd-eu-election.html

At 16%. So we’ve 16% of the population of Germany declaring for fascists and nazi’s.

Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union
Takes 30% for the center right.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-german-coalition-olaf-scholz-social-democrats/

Overall:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/9/germany-and-frances-far-right-make-gains-in-eu-elections

Apparently Austria didn’t fair much better.

The Conditions for WW3 continue to form. Only bright spot there comes from the:

Leftwing swing back toward the center from Eastern EU States:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-tusks-civic-coalition-seen-ahead-eu-vote-exit-poll-2024-06-09/

I'd say the nationalist swing overall increases the likelihood of the EU breaking up if its put under further pressure by BRICS. I wouldn't say its high but its higher than before this. All Putin needs to do is keep playing on the immigration fears and adding to the EU with Syrian and other refugees, its so effective for him.

Edited June 10 by BlueOak

[LSD-Rumi]

That's what happen when you don't teach people proper epistemology, they are easily mislead by radical leaders who use their fears against them. One thought such countries passed such things a long time ago, but nah, they are still stupid mfs.

[Nivsch]

@LSD-Rumi This is true to the far or even the classic right-wing, but the trend of getting closer to the center seems to me as healthy and a good thing.

Edited June 11 by Nivsch

[zazen]

It’s a human tendency to swing from one extreme to another, fleeing the wounds inflicted by one set of ideas to replace them with another set of ideas that promise to free you but end up harming in other ways.

Both the left and the right have enough truth in their points to resonate with a sizeable proportion of their populations. The issue is that most of the time the truthful parts get diluted into half truths.

Instead of brewing a full bodied blend of coffee they each serve a half and half concoction - half filled with genuine truths that resonate, the other half filled with the bitter after taste of soured milk that makes up their bias’s, prejudice’s and hidden agendas.

The issue isn’t lack of truth, but kernels of truth served with additional junk.

Edited June 11 by zazen

[BlueOak]

@LSD-Rumi

True. Something that caused people to question and justify their own beliefs would be helpful to ground them in a collective understanding. Or more simply put cause them to focus on others too.

The four core areas of Epistemology

The philosophical analysis of the nature of knowledge and the conditions required for a belief to constitute knowledge, such as truth and justification;

Potential sources of knowledge and justified belief, such as perception, reason, memory, and testimony

The structure of a body of knowledge or justified belief, including whether all justified beliefs must be derived from justified foundational beliefs or whether justification requires only a coherent set of beliefs; and,

Philosophical scepticism, which questions the possibility of knowledge, and related problems, such as whether scepticism poses a threat to our ordinary knowledge claims and whether it is possible to refute sceptical arguments.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology

@Nivsch
Often yes. It depends on what the center is doing at the moment; the global center, yes, is usually more harmonious. This sort of analysis or inquiry typically draws people to the center because the only way to justify your beliefs is to look at the results of your belief reflected in, with, or involving others. When on the fringe, this reflection shows more harm than good unless it's for a brief moment of action. If someone is too selfish or narcissistic, they will never have this moment of self-reflection because all they see (or want to see) is their own ego. 

At best, I can hope this far-right swing is to strengthen European immigration policy and dies out as that is done, but the pattern and external forces pushing people that way won't let the momentum stop. The countries won't suddenly become white Christian stage blue nations, for example, and the suppression required to achieve that, if it's pushed, is just constant internal strife.


@zazen
I used to say swings were the norm, but it only becomes true when something is out of balance or being pushed. Governance is constantly being pushed and unbalanced by others, as well as internal pressures. BRICS are working overtime to unbalance Europe, and they are succeeding; the trouble is for them, if it goes too far to the right, then it's WW3. That's the natural conclusion of this long pattern we've been in. People always create what they say they don't want, but deep down far-right individuals need an enemy so *shrug*.

As an example of the opposite, pick something or somewhere in your life that never changes. My home village never changes. There is no big swing; it's the opposite of what's happening globally.

[ArcticGong]

3 hours ago, BlueOak said:

@LSD-Rumi

True. Something that caused people to question and justify their own beliefs would be helpful to ground them in a collective understanding. Or more simply put cause them to focus on others too.

The four core areas of Epistemology
 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology

@Nivsch

@zazen
I used to say swings were the norm, but it only becomes true when something is out of balance or being pushed. Governance is constantly being pushed and unbalanced by others, as well as internal pressures. BRICS are working overtime to unbalance Europe, and they are succeeding; the trouble is for them, if it goes too far to the right, then it's WW3.

 

How are BRICS countries working overtime to unbalance Europe? Russia, China maybe, but Brazil, India and South Africa?

[BlueOak]

3 hours ago, ArcticGong said:

How are BRICS countries working overtime to unbalance Europe? Russia, China maybe, but Brazil, India and South Africa?

Sure let's tackle that. I sympathize because, for years, I hated being called 'the West' or NATO. I'd never considered my part of this nebulous 'the west' until it was shouted in my ear every week. Firstly, economic support for Russia's war against democracy in Europe is obvious in Russia's case. India's purchase of oil/weapons and countries like Brazil for fertilizer/oil is a huge reason why the war has been able to continue from Russia's side.

BRICS is directly trying to topple the Dollar as the world currency, and they support China, Iran and Russia's aggressive expansionist policy.

Here are a few references to get started on that front, I didn't comb these for details thoroughly but I can pull 15 more if needed.

For Russia:

India:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-shaves-indias-import-costs-by-about-27-bln-2023-11-08/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-64899489

Brazil:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/22/russia-ukraine-war-whats-behind-brazils-neutral-position
https://www.ft.com/content/7ebb679e-099e-49ac-a750-73ca46538dee

South Africa:
https://theconversation.com/south-africas-pact-with-russia-and-its-actions-cast-doubt-on-its-claims-of-non-alignment-206020

For Iran:
India:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/the-challenges-and-limitations-in-india-iran-relations/

Brazil:
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/05/30/3095400/iran-brazil-joint-economic-cooperation-commission-meeting-to-be-held-soon

South Africa:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/shedding-light-iran-south-africa-relationship

If you are going to come back with, well, it's the same as X country helping Y country. Yes. That's the point. Or if you say, Brazil, India, or South Africa are not involved in what this or that country does with the support they offer. Welcome to my world before all of this started, yet NATO has been blamed for the actions of one or two members for decades. So it's going to happen to BRICS, too. If these countries trade with the aggressors and fund and support their efforts, they will be associated with them. It's not unreasonable either; their money has allowed Russia, Iran, and China to finance their wars and expansion of their influence.

There are two competing powers in the world, with BRICS trying to overthrow one of them and take their place. If you split the world in two you conflict. This is shown in BRICS colonial ambitions, the expansion of their territory, stealing claims of trade routes, the attempts to replace the dollar, putting countries into debt traps so they can buy up ports, their cyber attacks on Europe, their funding of extremists in Europe, flooding Europe with immigrants and general chaos their members want to cause.

You can't deny the political support they've given other BRICS members as well; although they try to cloak it under the pretense of non-involvement, they are involved, they are not neutral. Neutral would having no interest in the result of something; they clearly favor a Russian, Iranian, and Chinese victory in the current geopolitical struggles.

'European Liberalism' is a threat to BRICS, according to Putin, which is part of his want to drive further into Europe, politically, financially, and militarily. Its not uncommon now for Chinese and Russia spies to be arrested to uncovered in Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66609633

Brazil's push for a common currency is being taken seriously.

I want you to consider this carefully. If a common BRICS currency is agreed upon, sanctions no longer work hardly at all (they barely work now with so many countries feeding the aggressor's war effort). So, the political tool for pressure is either words or violence instead.

*If we want this to continue in-depth, we should probably switch topics, so I'll see how you reply. However, if I do another long one, I'll spin it off into its own topic.

Edited June 11 by BlueOak

[Leo Gura]

The pendulum keeps on swinging.

[Sincerity]

At least Poland is going strong. 🇵🇱 So glad our society got too sick of these nutcase rightoids for the moment. A slight breath of fresh air.

Not saying it’ll stay like this forever but still.

Though a polish far-right party (Confederacy) also made big advances which is really concerning. They’re even dumber than the buffoons from Law and Justice.

We will go through what we gotta go through to learn.

[Sincerity]

Here’s a simple overview of the EU parties for those interested. The channel is great overall I think.

I voted for Renew Europe because I aligned with their programme the most. It’s a shame they didn’t do well in the election.

[Schizophonia]

12 hours ago, LSD-Rumi said:

That's what happen when you don't teach people proper epistemology, they are easily mislead by radical leaders who use their fears against them. One thought such countries passed such things a long time ago, but nah, they are still stupid mfs.

No, people vote far right because they are bored to see each week a News like that : https://www.fdesouche.com/2024/06/11/bordeaux-lagresseur-dun-etudiant-en-pleine-rue-se-revele-etre-un-migrant-algerien-en-situation-irreguliere-egalement-auteur-dun-recent-cambriolage-houari-nekref-ecope-de-8-mois-de-prison-ferm/

 

Edited June 11 by Schizophonia

[LSD-Rumi]

Macron seems resonable, being realistic and embracing some right wing ideas.

 

[Schizophonia]

3 minutes ago, LSD-Rumi said:

Macron seems resonable, being realistic and embracing some right wing ideas.

 

Lol

[Husseinisdoingfine]

As much as I don't support right-wing populist parties, the center-left and Conservatives parties did this to themselves, this is almost entirely their faults. They did not properly restrict mass migration, creating a culture shock of migrants for whom refused to assimilate to European cultures, and were contributing to a rise in crime.

I recall last year I visited Germany, specifically Frankfurt am Main. I walked right of a train station down a street, and that's when I knew I wasn't in Germany. All the signs were in the Arabic alphabet (The Pashtun language, Farsi language, Urdu language, etc...), and there were Afghani, and Pakistani flags on almost every building. There was a barber shops and vape shop on every block, sometimes on the same block, as well as food and other goods being served outside like in some sort of bazaar. The streets were littered with young men, clearly not working, just standing around vaping, as well as homeless people. 

Edited June 11 by Husseinisdoingfine
typos

[Hardkill]

Well, let's hope that this strong conservative backlash is only a temporary phase in the grand scheme of things. Let's also hope that centrism (including the center-right) in the EU still dominates overall for as long as possible until things cool down sometime in the future when the center-left to more left-wing comes back to power.

Fortunately, virtually all of the EU countries are much more developed than they were in the 1900s and still firmly believe in democracy.

Edited June 11 by Hardkill

[Schizophonia]

Don't take people for idiots.

[Nivsch]

39 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

in the future when the center-left to more left-wing comes back to power

Why do you assume the left is wiser than the center-left?

Edited June 11 by Nivsch

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Nivsch said:

Why do you assume the left is wiser than the center-left?

I don't necessarily think. I mean, I believe that the more left-wing a policy is the better, as long as it isn't too far to the left or doesn't cause an extreme right-wing backlash. 

However, I actually find that the center-left has generally been the best ideology for making long-term progress for any country because center-left governance not only leads to significant or major improvements in our society, but also it is more pragmatic, bipartisan, and minimizes excessive right-wing backlash compared to firm left-wing governance. 

TR, WW, FDR, and LBJ are prime examples of very progressive center-left leaders in History.

Either way, I believe in center-left to left-wing ideology implemented in a successful manner without going too far to the left is the way to progress for our world. 

 

Edited June 11 by Hardkill

[ArcticGong]

6 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Sure let's tackle that. I sympathize because, for years, I hated being called 'the West' or NATO. I'd never considered my part of this nebulous 'the west' until it was shouted in my ear every week. Firstly, economic support for Russia's war against democracy in Europe is obvious in Russia's case. India's purchase of oil/weapons and countries like Brazil for fertilizer/oil is a huge reason why the war has been able to continue from Russia's side.

BRICS is directly trying to topple the Dollar as the world currency, and they support China, Iran and Russia's aggressive expansionist policy.

Here are a few references to get started on that front, I didn't comb these for details thoroughly but I can pull 15 more if needed.

For Russia:

India:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-shaves-indias-import-costs-by-about-27-bln-2023-11-08/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-64899489

Brazil:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/22/russia-ukraine-war-whats-behind-brazils-neutral-position
https://www.ft.com/content/7ebb679e-099e-49ac-a750-73ca46538dee

South Africa:
https://theconversation.com/south-africas-pact-with-russia-and-its-actions-cast-doubt-on-its-claims-of-non-alignment-206020

For Iran:
India:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/the-challenges-and-limitations-in-india-iran-relations/

Brazil:
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/05/30/3095400/iran-brazil-joint-economic-cooperation-commission-meeting-to-be-held-soon

South Africa:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/shedding-light-iran-south-africa-relationship

If you are going to come back with, well, it's the same as X country helping Y country. Yes. That's the point. Or if you say, Brazil, India, or South Africa are not involved in what this or that country does with the support they offer. Welcome to my world before all of this started, yet NATO has been blamed for the actions of one or two members for decades. So it's going to happen to BRICS, too. If these countries trade with the aggressors and fund and support their efforts, they will be associated with them. It's not unreasonable either; their money has allowed Russia, Iran, and China to finance their wars and expansion of their influence.

There are two competing powers in the world, with BRICS trying to overthrow one of them and take their place. If you split the world in two you conflict. This is shown in BRICS colonial ambitions, the expansion of their territory, stealing claims of trade routes, the attempts to replace the dollar, putting countries into debt traps so they can buy up ports, their cyber attacks on Europe, their funding of extremists in Europe, flooding Europe with immigrants and general chaos their members want to cause.

You can't deny the political support they've given other BRICS members as well; although they try to cloak it under the pretense of non-involvement, they are involved, they are not neutral. Neutral would having no interest in the result of something; they clearly favor a Russian, Iranian, and Chinese victory in the current geopolitical struggles.

'European Liberalism' is a threat to BRICS, according to Putin, which is part of his want to drive further into Europe, politically, financially, and militarily. Its not uncommon now for Chinese and Russia spies to be arrested to uncovered in Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66609633

Brazil's push for a common currency is being taken seriously.

I want you to consider this carefully. If a common BRICS currency is agreed upon, sanctions no longer work hardly at all (they barely work now with so many countries feeding the aggressor's war effort). So, the political tool for pressure is either words or violence instead.

*If we want this to continue in-depth, we should probably switch topics, so I'll see how you reply. However, if I do another long one, I'll spin it off into its own topic.

I’ll grant your right in principle, but wrong in intent. Meaning that all this actions are working to undermine European hegemony. However, I see it as all those countries pursuing their own self interest like any other nation, which automatically undermines every other nation. 

China and India aren’t buddies, for instance, but they’ll work on a couple of things if it serves them. India and Russia go way back so India won’t dump them just because the west wants them to do that.

By that logic, the UK worked overtime to undermine the EU by leaving it, even though it sounds far fetched.
 

And the dollar, I maybe underestimate the significance of this shift, but I don’t see any problem. In just world, I would be more open for the US using its economic power in coercive measure against rouge states to make them conform to international norms. However, we live in a world order where leaders can invade countries based on lies- weapons of mass destruction- and nobody gets prosecuted. Interestingly, the lie of weapons of mass destruction was one of the catalyst for mass immigration -Iraqis and afghanis- which is fuelling the European right wingers, which few people see the connection with. 
I’ll chose American corruption over the alternative.  But, I might be naive and underestimating the dangers. 

Spies come with the territory of politics. All countries use spies. 
 

FYI I  haven’t red the links, I’ll check them out.

 

[Ajay0]

15 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Sure let's tackle that. I sympathize because, for years, I hated being called 'the West' or NATO. I'd never considered my part of this nebulous 'the west' until it was shouted in my ear every week. Firstly, economic support for Russia's war against democracy in Europe is obvious in Russia's case. India's purchase of oil/weapons and countries like Brazil for fertilizer/oil is a huge reason why the war has been able to continue from Russia's side.

BRICS is directly trying to topple the Dollar as the world currency, and they support China, Iran and Russia's aggressive expansionist policy.

Are Spain and Turkey part of BRICS !

Spain is the second largest importer of liquified natural gas from Russia, while Turkey is the third largest importer of Russian oil.

Austria, Hungary, Belgium in EU constitute other high importers of Russian gas. 

https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869#:~:text=According to the data provider,to the EU in 2021.

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has stated  that Europe has imported six times the fossil fuel energy from Russia than India has done since February 2022.

Edited June 12 by Ajay0