AI job loss starting hard this year

[LordFall]

I think people are underestimating the impact of the job loss and how it'll fundamentally impact capitalism as a whole. This is a great video on it

TL;DW guy is a graphic designer and the marketing agency that he worked at fed all his past work into an AI that now makes templates for all their new clients and makes them websites and emails. That puts the creatives out of work soon, a lot of marketers as well and video editors are not far behind. Just went to a pitch today where this company now automatically generates short-form content for you. 

The global economy isn't in a phenomenal spot where employers can generally afford to be generous or even wait to increase their efficiency themselves by using AI systems wherever possible in their business. 

Hopefully somewhere in like 30-50 years we'll end up in an abundant AGI utopia with infinite fusion power but until then the next 5 years will be rough for the general populace. 

Thoughts? 

[OmniNaut]

I still cannot decide if the timing is perfect for AI to be introduced to the world or the worst thing.

Companies in this late Orange era have proven to do anything to cut expenses and to maximise growth without any empathy or remorse for employees. The push from stakeholders is that high that we will see crazy things happening to even cut more costs and grow even more. Deploying AI now is like giving a nuclear weapon to a monkey.

Now is the time for the 1st world (Green) countries to show why they're called Green. Acknowledging the impact of AI. There's no stopping it, so banning is stupid. Maybe there should be a quota between Human and AI staff, like we have with men and women or racial diversity in the developed countries. Or maybe put extra taxes on AI work. But how easy will it be for companies to find loop holes, misuse it or lie about it? Because they're Orange, of course they will do that.

I think globally the 3rd world countries will be hit the hardest (again). There's a lot of invisible work done by low income countries, these are quite simple jobs and will be the easiest for AI to take over. These people will have no external government support and usually have big families to support.

So on one hand the companies who will deploy AI cannot be trusted with the responsibility. So the worst time for deploying AI. On the other hand maybe AI and how it's deployed will give the final push to developed nations to really show the world why they're are called Green countries. Reigning in AI deployment, punishing bad Orange corporate behaviour, supporting people who are negatively affected by AI. So maybe the best time for AI to be deployed.

I think in the long term it's the best timing to push Orange to Green.
Maybe with a bit of luck it will push the Green countries into Yellow.

Edited May 25 by OmniNaut

[LordFall]

8 minutes ago, OmniNaut said:

I think globally the 3rd world countries will be hit the hardest (again). There's a lot of invisible work done by low income countries, these are quite simple jobs and will be the easiest for AI to take over. These people will have no external government support and usually have big families to support.

Those countries at least have the advantage of relying mostly on manual work instead of anything using IT which is a chat gpt application away from being automated. 

Are you familiar with the concept of AGI? I think perhaps this will allow us to leapfrog from stage orange to stage yellow and above. Stage green is not powerful by itself to overcome Stage Orange's efficiency. An artificial general intelligence is basically a being that starts off straight at stage yellow due to being trained on all of humanity's data. The birth of such a being is due anytime from 2025-2030 according to current estimate. 

Exciting times; this gives me optimism above all else. If we're just relying on AI as a mega computer that humans exploit then that sounds like a century of atrocity to me with nation-states and mega corps waging economic and physical warfare against each other with it. 

[OmniNaut]

48 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Those countries at least have the advantage of relying mostly on manual work instead of anything using IT which is a chat gpt application away from being automated. 

Are you familiar with the concept of AGI? I think perhaps this will allow us to leapfrog from stage orange to stage yellow and above. Stage green is not powerful by itself to overcome Stage Orange's efficiency. An artificial general intelligence is basically a being that starts off straight at stage yellow due to being trained on all of humanity's data. The birth of such a being is due anytime from 2025-2030 according to current estimate. 

Exciting times; this gives me optimism above all else. If we're just relying on AI as a mega computer that humans exploit then that sounds like a century of atrocity to me with nation-states and mega corps waging economic and physical warfare against each other with it. 

I live in a 3rd world (South Asian) country, yes they're good in surviving, probably better then the 1st world countries. But the development will stagnate severely. Making the gap between 1st and 3rd world even bigger. The real 3rd world countries don't have major (export) industries. It's not like China or India where they manufacture stuff. There is almost nothing to fall back on, and also the governments are not developed enough to handle this kind of challenges. Especially when there's a lot of corruption still in these kind of countries. Corrupt people in high places are not giving up their power that easily.

Within the model of Spiral Dynamics there is no skipping stages. Yellow without Green is just Orange. Yellow incorporates Green, feeling and empathy global ecological thinking. Yellow without Green is just Global systematic thinking how to enrich yourself even more.

I think AI can be a great opportunity on the long term. It all depends on the monkeys who are deploying the AI.

AGI is too far away for now, maybe not for AI, but for societies to be ready for AGI it will take a decade maybe multiple. Think how much governments and societies need to change to incorporate it. Change takes time.

Edited May 25 by OmniNaut

[LordFall]

10 hours ago, OmniNaut said:

Within the model of Spiral Dynamics there is no skipping stages. Yellow without Green is just Orange. Yellow incorporates Green, feeling and empathy global ecological thinking. Yellow without Green is just Global systematic thinking how to enrich yourself even more.

I think AI can be a great opportunity on the long term. It all depends on the monkeys who are deploying the AI.

AGI is too far away for now, maybe not for AI, but for societies to be ready for AGI it will take a decade maybe multiple. Think how much governments and societies need to change to incorporate it. Change takes time.

Well, the interesting question is which part of society needs to be at Stage Yellow for it's values to be reflected to the overall benefit of the public. If we get stage yellow politicians and they use this AGI then perhaps we can solve most of our problems without needing the general populace to evolve as quickly; especially because stage yellow understands the perspective of the stages below it. 

[Basman]

13 hours ago, OmniNaut said:

I still cannot decide if the timing is perfect for AI to be introduced to the world or the worst thing.

Companies in this late Orange era have proven to do anything to cut expenses and to maximise growth without any empathy or remorse for employees. The push from stakeholders is that high that we will see crazy things happening to even cut more costs and grow even more. Deploying AI now is like giving a nuclear weapon to a monkey.

Now is the time for the 1st world (Green) countries to show why they're called Green. Acknowledging the impact of AI. There's no stopping it, so banning is stupid. Maybe there should be a quota between Human and AI staff, like we have with men and women or racial diversity in the developed countries. Or maybe put extra taxes on AI work. But how easy will it be for companies to find loop holes, misuse it or lie about it? Because they're Orange, of course they will do that.

I think globally the 3rd world countries will be hit the hardest (again). There's a lot of invisible work done by low income countries, these are quite simple jobs and will be the easiest for AI to take over. These people will have no external government support and usually have big families to support.

So on one hand the companies who will deploy AI cannot be trusted with the responsibility. So the worst time for deploying AI. On the other hand maybe AI and how it's deployed will give the final push to developed nations to really show the world why they're are called Green countries. Reigning in AI deployment, punishing bad Orange corporate behaviour, supporting people who are negatively affected by AI. So maybe the best time for AI to be deployed.

I think in the long term it's the best timing to push Orange to Green.
Maybe with a bit of luck it will push the Green countries into Yellow.

Things getting worse due to the excesses of a stage might be what is necessary for a society to finally transcend that stage.

It does suck though to lose your job to AI. I really feel for the people who suffer as a consequence. We might reach a point where people are completely changing careers multiple times throughout their life due to AI. The sense of redundancy and powerlessness must be disheartening.

[aurum]

18 hours ago, OmniNaut said:

I still cannot decide if the timing is perfect for AI to be introduced to the world or the worst thing.

There will certainly be a lot of devilry that goes down, that much is guaranteed.

It's just a question of whether it will be a net-positive or net-loss for humanity's development.

So far, I'm leaning towards net-positive. Humans have been developing revolutionary technologies for a long time, and they have mostly been net-positive in the long-term. I think it's a mistake to assume that our timing in history is so unique that this trend would stop. But it's a genuinely unclear situation that is near impossible to predict.

[OmniNaut]

8 hours ago, LordFall said:

Well, the interesting question is which part of society needs to be at Stage Yellow for it's values to be reflected to the overall benefit of the public. If we get stage yellow politicians and they use this AGI then perhaps we can solve most of our problems without needing the general populace to evolve as quickly; especially because stage yellow understands the perspective of the stages below it. 

Ok let's break it down from a logical perspective. 

The most developed countries are all democratic, so the governments are chosen. That means that to have a Yellow government you at least need people to acknowledge Yellow, that means you need a society of at least late Orange / early Green. I see you live in Canada, so Google tells me that the average age of the politicians is 51. That means the average was born in 1973 (Gen X), those people grew up in pre-computer revolution, they were basically teenagers when the first home computers came into society. They're not the boomer generation, but they're parents were boomers, so a big part of their upbringing was still influenced by that generation.

The 1970's was an completely different era. The whole notion we have now of "changing yourself", and "you never stop learning" are quite new maybe from the last 15 to 20 years. I was born in 1981 (start of Gen Y), in one of the most developed countries, my generation still was brought up with the classical way, go to school, choose an education, start a job, and work there until your pension. Constant adaption only started with the computer revolution. Before that life was much more stable.

The older you get the more difficult it is to have drastic changes in mind set. The brain takes longer to process new information, and it's more difficult to let go of old believes, especially if you grew up in an era where you are not brought up with constant change in your childhood. Heck I'm 42 and even I start to notice how difficult it is to process radical new perspectives. I need to work hard on it. And I see Gen Z now picking up things so fast, because they grow up in an era where constant change was more part of the childhood and because they're now in their 20's so the brain can still easily adapt.

OK now AI/AGI comes into play. Climate change was already mentioned by scientists in the early 1970's and look how long it took for the people and governments to be acknowledging and acting upon it. It took 50 years, and still within politics there are plenty of people who are debating if climate change is real. Even if the signs are there.

Adaptation of AI/AGI will not be any different. Especially when the first impacts of it will be major job losses. To tell an stage Blue or Orange person maybe even Green person that the solution in their problem is the same thing that created their problem that takes open mindedness. So AI will be seen as an evil thing in less developed minds, because it created their problems. And remember in a mature and non corrupt democracy the politicians are chosen and representative of the development of the people. Also keep in mind that elections (usually) only happen every four years, so that means governmental development only happens every election period. So to have new fresh views within governments takes at least four years. A lot of change can happen within those four years when the impact of AI really gets high.

AI/AGI is not a magical solution, it's a tool, be we humans are still the one holding the tool. It has potential but it's still unproven and untested and people already are walking away with it like it will be our saviour. Like Jesus with an CPU. That's stage Blue.
We have an option at some point to let AGI to be the tool who controls the tools, but do we really want to do that? Look how long it's already possible for airplane to fly on autopilot. But would you step in a airplane without any pilots on board?

In my IT studies I minored in Change Management, and since then I was involved in a lot of large projects (company and nation wide). I have seen first hand how difficult it is to change on an individual level and on a department/company/national level.

P.S. Just to clarify, I know I'm generalising here, and there are exceptions and it's not all so black and white.

So the message is, human change is slow.

Edited May 26 by OmniNaut

[OmniNaut]

26 minutes ago, aurum said:

There will certainly be a lot of devilry that goes down, that much is guaranteed.

It's just a question of whether it will be a net-positive or net-loss for humanity's development.

So far, I'm leaning towards net-positive. Humans have been developing revolutionary technologies for a long time, and they have mostly been net-positive in the long-term. I think it's a mistake to assume that our timing in history is so unique that this trend would stop. But it's a genuinely unclear situation that is near impossible to predict.

I'm not thinking in positive or negative, I'm just thinking that it's part of our future history. 
Even it's net-positive, we also need to keep in mind that many people will be affected by it in a negative way. And measures need to be in place to relieve that suffering.

[OmniNaut]

5 hours ago, Basman said:

Things getting worse due to the excesses of a stage might be what is necessary for a society to finally transcend that stage.

It does suck though to lose your job to AI. I really feel for the people who suffer as a consequence. We might reach a point where people are completely changing careers multiple times throughout their life due to AI. The sense of redundancy and powerlessness must be disheartening.

Yup, it sucks. I feel for the guy, the part basically where he says where his study is made redundant implies the scale. With a normal lay off, you apply to a different company, in a recess, at some point it will bounce back, but now you're telling people that the thing they went to school for will never come back anymore. That's tough.

One thing I learned people can be resilient, and I wish the guy best of luck, hopefully in the UK they have opportunities soon to switch careers.

[LordFall]

On 25/05/2024 at 8:53 PM, OmniNaut said:

The 1970's was an completely different era. The whole notion we have now of "changing yourself", and "you never stop learning" are quite new maybe from the last 15 to 20 years. I was born in 1981 (start of Gen Y), in one of the most developed countries, my generation still was brought up with the classical way, go to school, choose an education, start a job, and work there until your pension. Constant adaption only started with the computer revolution. Before that life was much more stable.

Can you elaborate on this? So the computer era brought about increase competition and lead to a sort of self-improvement crazy you would say?

Your point on brain plasticity is interesting; I hadn't considered that. The beautiful thing is I don't really think it will matter. You just need to give people what they want, they don't necessarily have to be on the same level of development. For example to convince a bunch of stage orange people to vote for you then making the economy abundant and giving them power and freedom should be enough even if it's bundled with the stage green humanitarian values they hate. 

I don't know how familiar you are with the concept of singularity but it just seems to solve the game of life. It will fundamentally change our experience of the physical universe from scarcity to abundance. I don't even think @Leo Gura understands it properly. The way I see it it's basically combining the spiritual world and the physical world into one. The spiritual being formless infinity and the singularity and metaverse bringing infinity through form. 

[Snader]

I think governments must move to some form of basic income sooner or later, unless they manage to properly restrict AI and technology development. That puts huge pressure to at least more developed welfare states, where population is aging fast and the working class pays the bill.

[Javfly33]

is good news, humans will do more humane complex jobs, and machines more mechanic jobs

[Keryo Koffa]

@Javfly33 Who needs jobs, we need to chill and explore art

[Nemra]

Make them work for you, and then fire them for not being productive enough. What a brilliant strategy! I'm saving money for this; I can't trust them from not replacing me with an AI. If they can somehow create jobs and transfer their employees to positions that are beyond AI's control, that would be great.