Chinese Ships Surround Taiwan - Japan Reacts

[BlueOak]

China recently updated its maps to claim more territory from India and many other nations; I posted a thread with a video about it. They got it age restricted so i'll reupload the new one below. A warning in the UK was issued recently about stockpiling food, radios, and water.

Is this WW3? Maybe, or maybe its more posturing, to keep throwing people off guard and see how they react.
 

 

Edited May 24 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

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Japanese News (can't embed)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXuwjo-4_wk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuQfaCb2jBk

[jimwell]

Why sensationalize all this? 

It's just a military drill. China already did the same drill in 2022. No, WW3 won't happen soon. 

[BlueOak]

34 minutes ago, jimwell said:

Why sensationalize all this? 

It's just a military drill. China already did the same drill in 2022. No, WW3 won't happen soon. 

 

• Because a longstanding possibility has been that China will invade Taiwan in June of this year.
• Russia did exactly this before invading Ukraine.
• The island is effectively under blockade
• If this is a wargame, it's to simulate an invasion.
• Other countries are reacting with rhetoric that indicates they are ready for a war if China pushes it. Such as Japan
• My government has told us to stock up on food, water, and handheld radios
• China has recently released maps claiming more territory.
• The world is in a heightened state of tension, and a precedent has been set for invading others for land.
• China has a long-standing policy of expanding its borders and has repeatedly claimed Taiwan as its own land.

Weighing those against your hope of this being nothing, (and mine) that this is likely more posturing to expose how the allies will react when China invades, there is a possibility.

Edited May 24 by BlueOak

[jimwell]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:00 PM, BlueOak said:

Because a longstanding possibility has been that China will invade Taiwan in June of this year.

 Where did you obtain this information? 

 

On 5/24/2024 at 8:00 PM, BlueOak said:

Weighing those against your hope of this being nothing, (and mine) that this is likely more posturing to expose how the allies will react when China invades, there is a possibility.

The video below was recommended to me by YouTube just minutes ago, and I’ve just finished watching it. I feel compelled to share it because it clearly illustrates why China hasn’t invaded Taiwan.

 

But I disagree with the video creator who said China would never invade Taiwan. It’s true that China has too much to lose in invading Taiwan. It’s also true that the USA’s military power deters China, but only as of now.

China is very passionate about reuniting Taiwan; it will eventually invade Taiwan to materialize its national and political vision, despite the heavy cost. China is simply buying time to prepare for the invasion. If Russia engages in war with NATO and Russia surprisingly hold its ground for a few years, China's invasion of Taiwan will be expedited.  

[hyruga]

China is too busy building infrastructure.

No time for warfare. And not stupid like the Russians.

Personally I don't think China will attack. The people there are concerned mostly with money making. The Chinese don't hate the Taiwanese and vice versa. 

 

Edited May 26 by hyruga

[BlueOak]

5 hours ago, jimwell said:

 Where did you obtain this information? 

 

The video below was recommended to me by YouTube just minutes ago, and I’ve just finished watching it. I feel compelled to share it because it clearly illustrates why China hasn’t invaded Taiwan.

 

But I disagree with the video creator who said China would never invade Taiwan. It’s true that China has too much to lose in invading Taiwan. It’s also true that the USA’s military power deters China, but only as of now.

China is very passionate about reuniting Taiwan; it will eventually invade Taiwan to materialize its national and political vision, despite the heavy cost. China is simply buying time to prepare for the invasion. If Russia engages in war with NATO and Russia surprisingly hold its ground for a few years, China's invasion of Taiwan will be expedited.  

I'm going to struggle to find old texts on this now, with all the new news stories about it dominating.

To be fair, though, there have been so many predictions that you'd be better off asking when it isn't predicted they will invade. Because they keep doing military drills to simulate invasions, one day, it will not be a drill.

The main point was. This one was more aggressive than usual, heightened to the point that other governments spoke out or made preparations to warn people. It was harder to tell if this was the real thing or not, which I suppose is the point.

Let's put 2024 or thereabouts instead.
https://www.ft.com/content/1740a320-5dcb-4424-bfea-c1f22ecb87f7
That's a US admiral.

Here's a future prediction for likelihood from global security consultants:
2024 - 2028
https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/will-china-invade-taiwan

Taiwan Intelligence, and a former national security advisor.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/beijings-taiwan-invasion-timeline-two-predictions/

Honestly, though, we can pull these links all day. If you don't like these three, I can get another three. I'm sure you can find the opposite, like the video or a comment by other intelligence experts. Thanks for the video; it's one channel I look at sometimes.

I do not know if it's definite that China will invade, but I tend to agree it's likely. A further reason that doing it now makes sense is because Ukraine and Israel are both taking the US's attention up.

Edited May 26 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

36 minutes ago, hyruga said:

China is too busy building infrastructure.

No time for warfare. And not stupid like the Russians.

Personally I don't think China will attack. The people there are concerned mostly with money making. The Chinese don't hate the Taiwanese and vice versa. 

 

From what I understand, and I am happy to be corrected because I am no expert, there are two main wings in the Chinese government. The trade wing, and the more military wing of the party. Both want Taiwan; they are just pursuing different ends to get it.

TBH, if they wanted Taiwan, they should help the US build its semiconductor industry out. Win by default that way and no bloodshed at all.

[jimwell]

4 hours ago, hyruga said:

China is too busy building infrastructure.

Very impressive. That boy in the video was having a blast.

I have seen futuristic building and IT infrastructures across China. One of those is a solar-powered, driverless bus. That was also impressive. China has surpassed both the USA and Japan in these domains.

The boy in the video implied that Wuhan airport is the best airport he has ever been in. It simply means he has never been to New Chitose Airport in Hokkaido, Japan. But I have my own standards. What I consider beautiful might not be beautiful to others. I simply had a romantic time sitting in front of a big glass window while drinking hot coffee and eating cookies, observing the falling snow and the airplanes accumulating snow. Such moments are unforgettable.

 

4 hours ago, hyruga said:

Personally I don't think China will attack. The people there are concerned mostly with money making. The Chinese don't hate the Taiwanese and vice versa. 

It's not about the people. It's about the governments. The CCP wants Taiwan badly.

[jimwell]

4 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Because they keep doing military drills to simulate invasions, one day, it will not be a drill.

Yes

 

4 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Here's a future prediction for likelihood from global security consultants:
2024 - 2028
https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/will-china-invade-taiwan

I don't have much time to read articles, but I was able to read this. It has valid points but fails to consider the amount of effort and resources China needs to use and lose for a Taiwan invasion. 

 

4 hours ago, BlueOak said:

I do not know if it's definite that China will invade, but I tend to agree it's likely. A further reason that doing it now makes sense is because Ukraine and Israel are both taking the US's attention up.

No, because the 2 conflicts haven't drained and will probably not drain the USA's economic and military powers. But a direct war with Russia can.