Don't Get Fooled by RFK Jr

[Leo Gura]

And Cenk should keep his big mouth shut. He couldn't even get 20% of his own primary. That's how big of a loser he is.

It's easy to talk big on YT. It's another thing entirely to win elections.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

15 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Because there was no serious challenger.

If a primary were held all that would happen is Biden would win but now there would video footage of progressives attacking Biden which Trump would use against Biden in the general to drive a wedge between liberals and leftists.

The only progressive popular enough to bear Biden is Bernie, but even he can't win a primary and he didn't even try to run.

1. Should that not be for the voters to decide?

2. So we should just accept that they will run Biden despite polls consistently show him losing and if he does lose it’s everyone else’s fault for pointing it out?

Edited April 13 by Raze

[Leo Gura]

10 minutes ago, Raze said:

1. Should that not be for the voters to decide?

Primaries are never run on incumbant Presidents. This is nothing new. The party rallies behind the incumbant because a party must be united to win the general.

Quote

2. So we should just accept that they will run Biden despite polls consistently show him losing and if he does lose it’s everyone else’s fault?

There was no serious challenger!

Who was gonna beat both Biden and Trump? No one rose to the occassion except RFK Jr, and he will not beat either of them in the general. Maybe he gets 10-20% tops. What good does this do? Why even waste time thinking about it?

The Repubs ran a primary even though it was obviously a giant waste of time and money because Trump was the clear top guy on the right. Why should the Dems do the same dog and pony show?

A lively primary can happen in 2028.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

9 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Primaries are never run on incumbant Presidents. This is nothing new. The party rallies behind the incumbant because a party must be united to win the general.

There was no serious challenger!

Who was gonna beat both Biden and Trump? No one rose to the occassion except RFK Jr, and he will not beat either of them in the general. Maybe he gets 10-20% tops. What good does this do? Why even waste time thinking about it?

The Repubs ran a primary even though it was obviously a giant waste of time and money because Trump was the clear top guy on the right. Why should the Dems do the same dog and pony show?

A lively primary can happen in 2028.

1. Times have changed, Trump had a primary for example. Given that he’s still leading in polls, it didn’t hurt him and may have even helped him. If democrats don’t want to have a primary they can’t then complain about third party candidates, why should they be allowed to shut out so much of the election? Not only is no primary allowed on their side but you shouldn’t vote third party either? So just force everyone to choose between Biden and whoever Republicans pick? That is anti-Democratic  

2. Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips were serious challengers, no they didn’t gain momentum but we don’t know if that would have been the case had the media not ignored them and the primaries been cancelled. You can’t cancel the primary and not cover it then say you didn’t have a serious challenger, that’s blocking a serious challenger from emerging.

3. That’s assuming we have a 2028

Edited April 13 by Raze

[Leo Gura]

5 minutes ago, Raze said:

Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips were serious challengers,

[Raze]

21 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

 

Like I said, you can’t blame them for not getting off the ground when the media wouldn’t cover them and the primary was basically cancelled. If that happened in the republican primary in 2016 Trump would have gone nowhere.

The main point is about who can win. Biden is way too old and is losing. If they nominated Dean I doubt they’d lose a single democratic voter but they’d probably gain enough with independents who otherwise think Bidens age is non negotiable to secure a victory.

Edited April 13 by Raze

[Leo Gura]

15 minutes ago, Raze said:

when the media wouldn’t cover them

And you can't blame the media for not covering them when they have such low recognition and appeal.

It's like, why doesn't CNN cover me? Because no one knows or cares who I am. The news covers those who get them views and clicks.

Don't forget that these are essentially popularity contests. It's not a battle of intellects nor moral superiority.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

And you can't blame the media for not covering them when they have such low recognition and appeal.

It's like, why doesn't CNN cover me? Because no one knows or cares who I am. The news covers those who get them views and clicks.

Yet CNN did town halls for all the republican primary candidates. Outlets held debates with them even though trump boycotted. This is not the first time mainstream media has tried to help establishment democrat candidates, so it would match a pattern of behavior.

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Raze said:

Yet CNN did town halls for all the republican primary candidates. Outlets held debates with them even though trump boycotted. This is not the first time mainstream media has tried to help establishment democrat candidates, so it would match a pattern of behavior.

Because Biden is an incumbant President.

Trump is not.

There was no primary in 2020 for Repubs for the same reason. Parties of course unify behind their President.

Progressives are so delusional they can't even understand this.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Because Biden is an incumbant President.

Trump is not.

There was no primary in 2020 for Repubs for the same reason. Parties of course unify behind their President.

Progressives are so delusional they can't even understand this.

Because it’s objectively a poor strategy in the current situation. What happens if he has a even more major age issue on the campaign trail? What happens if Israel escalates and even more Muslims and Arabs boycott him? Why should we accept democrats making the only thing standing in the way of another Trump term be such a flimsy proposition. It’s insane. 

[Leo Gura]

15 minutes ago, Raze said:

Why should we accept democrats making the only thing standing in the way of another Trump term be such a flimsy proposition.

Because no one better exists right now. That's the reality of our situation.

Gavin Newsom is the only other serious major Democrat. And of course progressives hate him.

Progressives will whine about any canditate who isn't progressive. Because progressives are naive children.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

11 hours ago, Raze said:

Because it’s objectively a poor strategy in the current situation. What happens if he has a even more major age issue on the campaign trail? What happens if Israel escalates and even more Muslims and Arabs boycott him? Why should we accept democrats making the only thing standing in the way of another Trump term be such a flimsy proposition. It’s insane. 

12 hours ago, Raze said:

Like I said, you can’t blame them for not getting off the ground when the media wouldn’t cover them and the primary was basically cancelled. If that happened in the republican primary in 2016 Trump would have gone nowhere.

The main point is about who can win. Biden is way too old and is losing. If they nominated Dean I doubt they’d lose a single democratic voter but they’d probably gain enough with independents who otherwise think Bidens age is non negotiable to secure a victory.

I thought a lot about that too, just like many Americans have of course. However, Harry Truman in 1948 was predicted by every pollster to lose the presidential election to then Republican nominee, Thomas Dewey, because of his lack of charisma or appeal and age. Yet to the surprise everyone, he won and brought coattails for his party by having his party win back control of both chambers of Congress. Biden is actually lot like Truman in personality type and competence.

 

Actual Results of the 1948 presidential election:

 

Nominee                         Harry S. Truman            Thomas E. Dewey             Strom Thurmond

Party                                   Democratic                      Republican                           Dixiecrat

Running mate                 Alben W. Barkley            Earl Warren                    Fielding L. Wright

Electoral vote                            303                                 189                                        39

States carried                             28                                   16                                          4

Popular vote                        24,178,347                    21,991,292                          1,176,023

Percentage                              49.6%                              45.1%                                    2.4%

 

Why Truman won according to Professor Lichtman's 13 keys system

Key 1: Party Mandate - After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

                 False

 

Key 2: No Primary Contest - This key is true if the incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention.

                 True

 

Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-election - The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

                  True
 

Key 4: No Third Party - A third party is a political party other than the Democratic or Republican Party. This key is false if a third party candidate is likely to win 5% or more of the popular vote.

                  False                 

 

Key 5: Strong Short-Term Economy - The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

                  True

Key 6: Strong Long-Term Economy - Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

                   False

 

Key 7: Major Policy Change - The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. This key is true if the incumbent president redirects the course of government or enacts a major policy change that has broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare, or outlook. It does not matter whether the change is popular with the public, nor does it matter what ideological mold it was cast from.

 

                    True

 

Key 8: No Social Unrest - There is no sustained social unrest during the term. This key is false if there is widespread violent unrest that is either sustained or leaves critical issues unresolved by the time of the election campaign, which makes the voters worry that the fabric of the nation is coming apart.

 

                     True
 

Key 9: No Scandal - The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

 

                      True

 

Key 10: No Foreign/Military Failure - The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

 

                      False                      
 

Key 11: Major Foreign/Military Success - The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
 

                     True    

 

Key 12: Charismatic Incumbent - The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

                

                    False

 

Key 13: Uncharismatic Challenger - The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

 

                    True

 

When the party in power loses 6 or more keys, then the incumbent party loses the White House to the opposite party. Truman and the Democrats lost 5 keys. Therefore, he and his party got to keep the presidency.

 

According to wikipedia: 

Journalist Samuel Lubell found in his post-1948 survey of voters that Truman, not Dewey, seemed the safer, more conservative candidate to the "new middle class" that had developed over the previous 20 years. He wrote that "to an appreciable part of the electorate, the Democrats had replaced the Republicans as the party of prosperity" during and after the war. Lubell quoted a man who, when asked why he did not vote Republican after moving to the suburbs, answered "I own a nice home, have a new car and am much better off than my parents were. I've been a Democrat all my life. Why should I change?" Dewey's promise of a "great house cleaning" in Washington worried an Iowa minister who wanted to retain farm subsidies for parishioners; worried about the consequences of another depression, he voted Democratic for the first time in his church's history. Truman received a record number of Catholic votes, exceeding even the Catholic support of Al Smith in 1928, in part because Wallace drew leftists away from the Democrats.[82]

Another reason for Dewey's surprise defeat was his complacent, distant approach to the campaign, and his failure to respond to Truman's attacks. Journalist Jules Abels wrote that "the election was not thrown away by indifference or lack of effort. Preparation and more preparation had always been the distinguishing characteristic of Dewey and his team throughout his career...The truth is that Dewey's campaign was the result not of careless, but too careful and painstaking, calculation. The Dewey campaign was frozen into inertia not because it had been underthought, but because it had been overthought."[83]

Other possible factors for Truman's victory included his aggressive, populist campaign style; broad public approval of Truman's foreign policy, notably the Berlin Airlift of that year; and widespread dissatisfaction with the institution Truman labeled as the "do-nothing, good-for-nothing 80th Republican Congress." In addition, after suffering a relatively severe recession in 1946 and 1947 (in which real GDP dropped by 12% and inflation went over 15%), the economy began recovering throughout 1948. The year 1948 was a banner year for the Democrats, as they not only retained the presidency but also recaptured both houses of Congress. It was also an unprecedented fifth consecutive presidential victory for the party, thus continuing what remains the only winning streak of more than two presidential elections by the Democratic Party since the Civil War. Since 1948, there has been only one streak of three consecutive presidential victories by any party (in that case, by the Republicans).

 

Biden and the Democrats are only down 2 keys, including keys 1 and 12. So much would have to go wrong for him to lose to Trump. Plus, we'll what happens with the Trump trials, including one starting next week, and see how that will affect Trump and his party's chances of winning in 2024.

As for the polls, Biden has been surging lately in the polls. Plus:

 

Moreover, Biden has been campaigning a lot more than Trump has been over the past month and a half. Also, like Truman, Biden is campaigning aggressively as an economic populist and calling out the Republican lead US House as the "do-nothing, good-for-nothing" Republican controlled House, which is absolutely true! As a matter of fact, because of Mike Johnson and the MAGA Republican representatives, the 118th Congress (the current Congress), has become literally the most dysfunctional and most unproductive Congress ever in US History!

Edited April 13 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Because there was no serious challenger.

If a primary were held all that would happen is Biden would win but now there would video footage of progressives attacking Biden which Trump would use against Biden in the general to drive a wedge between liberals and leftists.

The only progressive popular enough to bear Biden is Bernie, but even he can't win a primary and he didn't even try to run.

4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Primaries are never run on incumbant Presidents. This is nothing new. The party rallies behind the incumbant because a party must be united to win the general.

There was no serious challenger!

Who was gonna beat both Biden and Trump? No one rose to the occassion except RFK Jr, and he will not beat either of them in the general. Maybe he gets 10-20% tops. What good does this do? Why even waste time thinking about it?

The Repubs ran a primary even though it was obviously a giant waste of time and money because Trump was the clear top guy on the right. Why should the Dems do the same dog and pony show?

A lively primary can happen in 2028.

 

Exactly!

 

 

Edited April 13 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

3 hours ago, Raze said:

Like I said, you can’t blame them for not getting off the ground when the media wouldn’t cover them and the primary was basically cancelled. If that happened in the republican primary in 2016 Trump would have gone nowhere.

The main point is about who can win. Biden is way too old and is losing. If they nominated Dean I doubt they’d lose a single democratic voter but they’d probably gain enough with independents who otherwise think Bidens age is non negotiable to secure a victory.

Actually, I think that a lot of the mainstream, a lot of the progressive media, and of course the entire right-wing media have all been unfair with the way they've been criticizing Biden for over 3 years. He's been criticized either for being too far to the left or not being left-wing or a lot of times gets falsely portrayed as being just as bad as Trump. That's a big reason why Biden has been down in the polls and in approval ratings.

This fractured media environment we've been living in will be the death of us all.

Edited April 13 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

One of the reasons dictators like to appear strong and virile is because when a leader appears feeble, like Biden, he is torn apart, like a wounded gazelle by a pack of hyenas.

Edited April 13 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

56 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

One of the reasons dictators like to appear strong and virile is because when a leader appears feeble, like Biden, he is torn apart, like a wounded gazelle by a pack of hyenas.

Dictators usually mask the great amount of insecurity they have about themselves and how long they can hold on to power and influence.

Besides, Trump would be the most incompetent dictator ever if actually got to rule as a true authoritarian. He'd be like a fat old version of Joffrey.

Trump has the blond hair, blue eyes, and wealth of a Lannister. He also is insane, stupid, cowardly, and was raised incredibly spoiled like Joffrey. He has never had the great temperance, impressive intellect, bravery, and solid work ethic of either Tyrion or Tywin Lannister.

Edited April 13 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Hardkill said:

fat old version of Joffrey.

That is the perfect analogy, although Trump is more of a scammer than a psychopath.

[Merkabah Star]

I can’t get past his voice. Its so bad. Only a Kennedy would have the confidence to even attempt to run with his vocal issues. 

🤡

[Husseinisdoingfine]

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

One of the reasons dictators like to appear strong and virile is because when a leader appears feeble, like Biden, he is torn apart, like a wounded gazelle by a pack of hyenas.

Which is really sad because such a leader could be really competent and smart. But the primitive monkey brained mouth breathing audience only understands strength and power, that's what they respect.

[BlueOak]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Nobody gave any Biden challenger airtime, barely mentioning them. This is why there was no challenge to Biden.

I am struggling to see why you are defending an anti-democratic process: Not having debates and a primary. I get you want a certain result, so you frame the argument that way, I do that too.

Here, I can step back and look at America still slowly sliding off the cliff into fascism, without an attempt to appear democratic. The appearance was worth something to governance because that's all most of us see, and undermining that undermines trust. Practically, choosing from multiple voices/minds is better than two.