Israel / Palestine News Thread

[royce]

### Preliminary Analysis of the Assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General

- Sameh Askar 

Let’s try to summarize the overall context and use straightforward language to explain the complexities involved.

**First:** It appears that Israel and the United States have been collaborating over the years to plant high-precision surveillance devices in the southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh). This would explain why all assassinations of Hezbollah leaders occur there; Israel seems to have limited intelligence beyond this area. Every prominent party leader who has been targeted was located in Dahieh.

This situation requires thorough sweeping and review of the area, which I believe Lebanon is not currently capable of conducting effectively on its own. Assistance from foreign powers, particularly Russia and China, may be needed—not Iran, as it is evident that the Iranians are also not as advanced in this field, for reasons not to be discussed here.

**Second:** It also seems that Israel and the United States have managed to infiltrate an important faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This doesn't necessarily mean they have recruited agents within, but they might have planted surveillance devices among them or in their usual locations. A major piece of evidence supporting this is that whenever there is an assassination in Dahieh, an Iranian advisor from the IRGC is also involved. This suggests prior knowledge of the movements of these leaders.

The Iranians urgently need to initiate a scientific and political revolution to salvage what they can, as any escalation could result in the assassination of high-ranking Iranian state leaders, or even the Supreme Leader himself. The dimensions of this revolution should include cooperation with the Russians to uncover and analyze these developments, as Russia is highly advanced in this field and possesses the technical expertise to detect Western spying methods. The Russians have a history of dealing with such techniques, from the Chechen and Georgian conflicts to the current situation in Ukraine.

**Third:** The Middle East is likely heading towards a significant regional war in the near future. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah would eliminate any prospects of "Lebanese political harmony," paving the way for more extreme and aggressive leadership within Hezbollah. The Secretary-General was not just a political party leader; he was an inspiration, an ideology, and a charismatic figure who wielded wide influence in Lebanon and managed to foster communication with different Lebanese factions. Over 20 years, he established a political consensus that effectively shaped the Lebanese scene.

With the assassination of Nasrallah, a new leader will emerge who may not possess the patience and self-restraint Nasrallah demonstrated over the past year. Nasrallah’s approach was characterized by measured responses, which led to criticism and accusations of failing Gaza, as he insisted on referring to Lebanon as the "supporting front." Although this stance had adverse security consequences, leading to these breaches, he maintained this position until the last moment.

As of now, we do not know who the new leader will be or what their character and policies will be like, but it is likely they will come with a dual motivation of revenge and self-affirmation. These emotions are enough to trigger an escalation and a demonstration of power that Nasrallah deliberately refrained from showing in the recent period.

**Fourth:** The new leader of Hezbollah will likely be pressured to intensify attacks and use weapons that have not previously been deployed.

**Fifth:** Hezbollah’s allies within the "Axis of Resistance" will also likely escalate their attacks in a show of solidarity and unity of stance. We might see widespread acts of retaliation, given Nasrallah’s central role as an inspiring leader within this axis. His support for other factions, especially in Yemen, has been significant, and we may see more assertive actions from the Yemenis as a result.

**Sixth and finally:** Those who predict or promote the collapse of Hezbollah or the resistance clearly do not understand the ideological and psychological makeup of the "Muslim fighter," who views such incidents as part of God's decrees. Such events do not provoke overwhelming anger, weakness, or exaggerated mourning. Instead, Nasrallah would transform into a popular icon and legend in both Lebanese and Arab contexts. His assassination at the hands of Israel would grant him power and standing not just in the Shia community but also within the Sunni community, as he gave his life in their defense.

In conclusion, the assassination of Nasrallah is a crucial chapter in fostering Sunni-Shia solidarity against occupation. As the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining; this event has completely discredited the notion of "Shia collaboration with Israel," which has been widely promoted in the Sunni community. This narrative was spread by Wahhabi propaganda over the past two decades to justify sectarian massacres and to solidify the power and influence of jihadist factions that emerged from Wahhabi ideology specifically and Western intelligence agencies more generally.

 

In the same context...

Arab intelligence agencies and Arab security are required in the coming period to understand and interpret this breach and study the idea of planting eavesdropping devices over a large geographic area or in places where leaders and influencers are present...

Israel has become more aggressive and will continue to become even more so, with endless support from the United States. It will raise its demands on Arab regimes and countries, especially after the official rejection of normalization with Saudi Arabia and the crisis of the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt.

Currently, Israel is experiencing a media victory, with a state of political and societal euphoria similar to what it experienced in 1967, with some differences. In 1967, Israel gained Arab land, but in 2024 it is practicing state terrorism by assassinating leaders of its opponents.

This euphoria and self-pride, along with the ongoing security threat posed by resistance rockets, means we are dealing with a war criminal project with no limits—no barriers preventing it from achieving its dreams and ambitions that were previously silenced during moments of weakness.

Betting on the United States is a losing gamble, not only because the U.S. is currently losing in the global power struggle, but also because Lebanon is paying the price for this gamble now. The CIA has infiltrated key aspects of the Lebanese state, planting eavesdropping devices and booby-trapping areas like the southern suburbs. What would prevent the agency from doing the same in other Arab countries?

Edited September 28 by royce

[Leo Gura]

20 minutes ago, royce said:

The right understands the right

It's insane that Dugin at the same time calls Israeli action a genocide and then uses that as his example of how Russia ought to be.

Dugin's argument: If you gonna genocide, do it quickly and decisively. Haha. But the reason that can't work is because the US is backing both Ukraine and Israel.

Dugin is such a clownish figure.

Edited September 28 by Leo Gura

[Nemra]

@Leo Gura, maybe that's how one thinks when one is in love with some kind of ideal of one's country.

Edited September 28 by Nemra

[Leo Gura]

8 minutes ago, Nemra said:

@Leo Gura, maybe that's how one thinks when one is in love with some kind of ideal of one's country.

Dugin is horny for a war with the West. He jerks off to it.

[integration journey]

2 hours ago, Minini said:

 

That's an inappropriate thing to say considering the hundreds of Lebanese civilians that got killed to achieve this goal. It's one thing to recognize the evil in both sides and it's another thing to actually cheer the devilry being committed by either side. 

The same UAE that is arming and fueling the genocide in Sudan?  

Is it appropriate to kill thousands of Syrians and destroy so many Syrian cities and make people displaced from their homeland? No, then it’s a good thing that he died. I just wish Syrians killed him and not the Israelis 

[hundreth]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Israel has now created that there will 50 years of endless terrorism across the world.

There is no victory here.

There is a side of this we aren't mentioning. 

Hezbollah hijacked Lebanon. They were considered a necessary evil because of their so called protection capabilities. Now, it is clear they have had their state enlisted in a war for a cause they did not choose. Even more, they have not been protected. 

This has been a wake up call for many Lebanese, who are already facing many challenges outside of Israel - that it may be time to take their nation back.

Edited September 28 by hundreth

[hundreth]

Also keep in mind that Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel on October 8th. One day after the massacre, and before any Israeli response. This is what they signed up for.

[royce]

4 minutes ago, hundreth said:

they signed up for

Yes,  this what they signed up for 

[Zega]

44 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It's insane that Dugin at the same time calls Israeli action a genocide and then uses that as his example of how Russia ought to be.

Dugin's argument: If you gonna genocide, do it quickly and decisively. Haha. But the reason that can't work is because the US is backing both Ukraine and Israel.

Dugin is such a clownish figure.

So Blitzkrieg basically 

[Minini]

33 minutes ago, integration journey said:

Is it appropriate to kill thousands of Syrians and destroy so many Syrian cities and make people displaced from their homeland? No, then it’s a good thing that he died. I just wish Syrians killed him and not the Israelis 

I am not saying hezbullah are good guys. I am saying it doesn't feel right to celebrate this while turning a blind eye to the hundreds or thousands of Lebanese civilians that were also killed to achieve this ~ just like the Syrians. Two wrongs don't make a right. 

Edited September 28 by Minini

[Raze]

https://x.com/_ZachFoster/status/1840011456680427990
 

Quote

For decades, Israel has preferred tactical wins over strategy or vision. The short term victories have come at the cost of more dead Israelis over time. Israel is a frog boiling itself. That’s why the country has gotten increasingly unsafe over the past 3-4 decades. It’s not a straight line but the trend is unmistakable. More Israelis were killed during the First Intifada (1987-1993) in maintaining Israel’s domination over the Palestinians than in the preceding 20 years of military occupation. More Israelis were killed in the 90s than during the First Intifada. More Israelis were killed in Second Intifada (2000-2005) than during the 90s. More Israelis were killed on Oct 7th than during the entire second intifada. More Israelis have been killed or wounded since Oct. 7th than on Oct. 7th, with estimates of tens of thousands of maimed and traumatized Israelis returning from genocide operations in Gaza and the North. As Israelis celebrate the mass murder of hundreds of Lebanese civilians, as well as Nasrallah, how many more Israelis will be sent off to die in the name of Zionism? Will the next phase of the war to preserve Jewish domination in Palestine and Israel result in hundreds of thousands of casualties? Peace will come to Israel once Israeli Jews choose equality with Palestinians over Jewish supremacy.

https://x.com/martyrmade/status/1716188598381490222
 

Quote

Something has changed. Israel’s assault on Gaza in 2014 was the most destructive in the history of the conflict, but the IDF was able to operate w/near impunity. At one point, Israeli missiles took out a bunch of kids playing on a beach, right in front of a hotel housing many foreign journalists. Starting in 2018, Israeli snipers started shooting non-violent protesters approaching the Gaza border. They shot nearly 10,000 people without taking a single casualty themselves. There is a video of Israeli soldiers laughing and cheering as they shoot unarmed people. They shot and killed a disabled man in a wheelchair. This isn’t underground news; it was all known at the time. Despite all this, Israel and their overseas boosters never lost control the narrative for even a moment. Most people don’t even know the things I mentioned even happened. But this time around, things have clearly changed. Despite Hamas carrying out their largest and most gruesome terrorist attack ever, Israel has been unable to control the narrative almost from day one. They started taking criticism before they even began to retaliate, while the bodies of Israeli civilians were still warm, and pressure on Israel has only increased since. What has changed?

 

Edited September 28 by Raze

[Leo Gura]

31 minutes ago, Zega said:

So Blitzkrieg basically 

Putin tried it and it didn't work.

The Russian military is too corrupt and incompetent.

[Raze]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Putin tried it and it didn't work.

The Russian military is too corrupt and incompetent.

That was mostly because his invading forces was small and Ukraine’s military had a lot of build up. Now his plan is to just slowly wear them down. 

[Leo Gura]

1 minute ago, Raze said:

That was mostly because his invading forces was small and Ukraine’s military had a lot of build up. Now his plan is to just slowly wear them down. 

It is an interesting question, why didn't Putin use 5x more troops? Did he expect it would be so easy?

[Raze]

5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It is an interesting question, why didn't Putin use 5x more troops? Did he expect it would be so easy?

Maybe he just wanted to intimidate them into diplomacy but it blew up in his face 

[Leo Gura]

4 minutes ago, Raze said:

Maybe he just wanted to intimidate them into diplomacy but it blew up in his face 

No. His plan was to execute Zelensky and capture Kiev.

[Raze]

A analysis from some US critics with experience in the US military and CIA

 

Edited September 28 by Raze

[Lyubov]

25 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It is an interesting question, why didn't Putin use 5x more troops? Did he expect it would be so easy?

Bro was listening to his advisors, corruption is such that where truth is not valued so everyone up and down the chain of command lies. He basically fell for his own propaganda how Russia could steamroll Ukraine in a day. Ukraine intelligence was so confused before the invasion, it’s on record. The initial invasion confused Ukraine cause the country is so big and Russia didn’t build up sufficient amount of troops. 

Edited September 28 by Lyubov

[Ayham]

@Leo Gura

After careful reflection, I was able to conclude that you were right, organizations such as Hezboallah don't work in the way where you can just attack the leader and scatter the rest, but rather, they have very strong motivations that are at the core of their identity, killing Nasarallah will only create 50 more Nasrallahs.

Fuck how did I miss this.

[royce]

2 minutes ago, Ayham said:

killing Nasarallah will only create 50 more Nasrallahs

and keep in mind this is not a bad thing