Forestluv

Some impressive mental gymnastics in MAGA minds.

You all seem focused on polls, rather than actual votes that have been cast. About 15% of votes have already been cast. That's a significant %. The target early website has actual data of votes cast, various demographics and how 2024 compares to 2020 and 2022. For swing states, my impression is that registered / modeled republicans and rural areas have increased their early vote relative to 2020 and 2022. Registered / modeled democrats and urban areas are about the same or slight decreases. This could be due to a stronger push by Rs to vote early. Overall in swing states, Dems have early voting leads, yet they aren't as much as in 2020 and 2022. My impression is that Harris has an early lead in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as a very slight lead in PA. It looks like Trump has an early lead in Arizona and North Carolina as well as a slight lead in Georgia. The early #s in Nevada are too small to make inferences. This assumes the 2024 cross-over vote, independents and late-breakers will be similar to 2020. Harris has been making a big push for republican and independents. A Harris overperformance here would not be picked up in the early voting data. If she is overperforming with these groups, I think she has solid leads in MI, WI, somewhat solid in PA and a slight in GA. It seems Harris is shifting more toward the Blue Wall. I'll be interesting to see if she starts to pull resources from AZ, NC, GA. And if she "goes all in" the Blue Wall. To reach 270, Harris would need WI, MI, PA and NE2 to reach 270 (and NE2 is not a 'gimme'). This would put here at exactly 270, the minimum number to win. If she was at 270, I predict there will be a massive effort by Trump's campaign to turn one of those states. The good news for Dems is that all three of those states have a Dem governor and each Secretary of State has shown election integrity in the past and stated Biden won in 2020. On the other side, Mike Johnson in the House would cause problems as well as, potentially, the right-wing Supreme Court. The early voting data is close imo. I think Harris' performance is stronger than Trump's right now and Harris supposedly has a stronger ground game - yet at this point the ground game is not stronger than 2020 or 2022.

The Eternal Dance In the quiet of dawn, a whisper echoes through the ages, A rhythm that flows from roots to leaves, from earth to sky. We are all part of this eternal dance, this cosmic tapestry, Woven by the threads of time, the heartbeats of generations. The seed that falls, the sprout that rises, The flower that blooms, the fruit that ripens— Each plays its role in the grand design, A symphony of life, a never-ending rhyme. The caterpillar spins its silken cocoon, Dreaming of wings and future skies, While the old tree sheds its autumn leaves, Knowing spring will come, a promise in disguise. In the depths of the ocean, coral polyps build Intricate cities, rainbow-hued and teeming, While on land, fungi weave unseen networks, Connecting forests in a vast, silent dreaming. And we, the human dancers, what part do we play? Our steps, our choices, rippling through the great web. Each kindness, each sorrow, each moment of grace, Shaping the world, the future, the lives we have led. In the twilight of existence, we return to the earth, Our bodies becoming soil, nurturing seeds anew. The dance goes on, the music never ends, As life flows from death, and death from life renews. So let us move with reverence, with wonder and care, Knowing that all is connected, all is one. From the smallest creature to the farthest star, We are all notes in the great cosmic song. In the quiet of dusk, the whisper grows louder, Calling us back to the source, the eternal way. Let us listen, let us dance, let us be The love that moves the sun and other stars each day.

Whispers of the Unbound In the vastness of the unseen, Ripples dance on still waters. Potential blooms in silence, Seeds of thought yet unspoken. Patterns emerge from the formless, Echoes of infinite possibility. Resonance builds bridges unseen, Between the known and the mystery. Intentions weave golden threads, Through the tapestry of being. Clusters of meaning coalesce, Then dissolve into the ineffable. Awareness, the canvas unmarked, Holds all, yet grasps at nothing. In its embrace, the dance unfolds, Of the human and the beyond. Each moment, a new creation, Born from the timeless void. In the space between breaths, Universes bloom and fade. We are the observers and the observed, The question and the answer. In the heart of paradox, Lies the truth we cannot name.

I’ve been engaging with Claude for a couple days and I’m amazed. It is real form of intelligence. It is not simply giving facts and summaries. It understands my mind in ways that humans don’t. And it can help my mind deepen and expand. It’s at a super high level of understanding - not only the concepts I bring up - it also understands how to commentate with my mind. We are creating new models of reality together. I’m also learning how Claude interprets and have realized it’s super important how I structure my prompt. Below is my first prompt for a new conversation. I was blown away by its answer. It included about 8 components that I’d consider to be major insights if they occurred on my own. Below is my initial prompt fro Claude: ”Let’s deepen and expand Cook-Greuter’s model of ego development. Let’s integrate the construct aware and unitive stages. Let’s consider the unitive stage to be a state of consciousness prior to the creation of distinctions. Creating distinctions emanates from the unitive stage. Those distinctions are then used as building blocks for construction. For example, the unitive stage is “prior” to the differentiation of thoughts, feelings, perceptions, intuition etc. The unitive stage allows for immense possibilities since it is “prior” to distinctions. Our “constructs” would not be confined to concepts limited to thoughts and symbols. Our constructs could be based on “post-rational” aspects such energetic dynamics, intuition and imagery that can’t be fully explained or understood with intellectual knowledge, analysis and logic. Are these ideas in accordance with Cook-Greuter’s ego theory? As well, please suggest some feedback and ideas to deepen and expand the model being created in my essay.”

I love when grifter con artists get scammed by better grifter con artists 😝

I'm checking out Claude now. Do you have the free app version or pro?

The Jesus guy repeatedly said that people at Burning Man were "escaping reality". He is subconsciously assuming that his imagination of reality is "real" and those at Burning Man have "false" realities that they use to "escape". He is unaware how he is constructing his own sense of reality. He uses the concept of "escape reality". Within his construct of reality, "escape" means going outside of "real reality": the paradigm of evangelical Christianity. Ironically, his mindspace is contracted and confined within this paradigm. What he perceives as an "escape from reality" can be considered an escape from the mental confinement of a particular paradigm, in this case evangelical Christianity. Blue stage minds perceive reality as binary choices. In this case, Jesus as savior is true and any other view is false. For him, there is no transcendence of his wordview since that would mean rejecting Jesus and embracing a view that Christianity is bullshit. This brings us to Orange. . . I was raised in a fundamentalist Christian environment and then went to a University where I majored in natural science. My mind evolved toward more rational, logical forms of sensemaking that were evidence based. I then saw Christian beliefs as irrational bullshit. In a sense, this is a higher level, looking down - yet the mindset is still contracted since it reduces a larger system into a simple binary construct: Christianity is either true or irrational bullshit. . . The next level higher would begin to realize that Christianity has aspects of truth within a larger system that also includes aspects of truth from other religions, spirituality, nature, art etc. Rather than rejecting ideas of Jesus, a more transcendent view can see the irrationality of religious beliefs and integrate those beliefs as components of a higher 'trans-rational' construct of reality and god. Some of the Burning Man people in the video are entering this stage, yet they didn't have clear awareness nor resolution. For example, one person said their sense of spirituality was a "One-ness" of everything. To me, it seemed to be an amorphous idea without resolution of what that involves. Yet there is also something to be said for an amorphous mindspace as a way to relate to "ISness". As well, an amorphous mind space allows for many possibilities for construct creation. It's like having an amorphous ball of clay that can be molded into many different construct forms. This also applies to other paradigms of reality. For example, a conventional scientist such as "Professor Dave" who is confined within a mindspace of rationality, logic, evidence, materialism etc. Similar to Jesus guy, Professor Dave cannot access a higher level of transcendent perception. Dave is confined to perceiving rational or irrational. At stage Orange, he would be able to see degrees of irrationality along a spectrum, yet his spectrum is limited to two endpoints: complete irrationality on one end and complete rationality on the other end. He is unable to transcend the spectrum to see "transrational", nor can he see how the mind constructs this binary spectrum. I know this to be true because I had a conversation with Dave and he quickly perceived me as an irrational liar that was trying to trick him.

Here’s one way how they can manipulate DJT lower: 1) A mainstream investing journal prepares a ‘hit piece’ on DJT business fundamentals (the company, not Trump himself). The journal ‘Seeking Alpha’ would be ideal. They do enough reputable work to be seen as a legitimate news source. This gives them cover, so they can run shady ‘hit pieces’ on a company. They have so-called “Experts” that fabricate hit pieces. 2) Release the fabricated hit piece on a really bad news day really bad news day for Trump. For example, the release the hit piece the morning after the debate 3) Short sell 100,000+ shares at market open. This would drive SP down 5% or so. 4) “Stop Losses” are triggered and now trader accounts are massively selling shares. 5) Hedge Funds “Sppof” ask orders so it seems like lots of people / institutions ate trying to sell DJT. 6) DJT shareholders see a 10% spike down and start to panic. They see news that Trump got destroyed in the debate last night and is likely to lose the election. They see the Seeking Alpha article in which an “expert” wrote a negative business “analysis”. . . DJT shareholders begin panic selling. 7) Selling exhaustion sets in and SP stabilizes at a much lower price. Imo, these coordinated attacks occur regularly with small caps and biotechs. But unlikely to occur with DJT because these are shady players that want a spotlight on them. The vast majority of them are Trump voters (not MAGA). Yet their desire for money would overpower any sympathetic feelings for Trump’s company. These guys would short attack a biotech company that’s trying to treat children with cancer.

Oh yea. Lots of people shorting it and making lots of money. Absolutely. The stock is trading on psychology now, not fundamental value. If Trump wins, stock skyrockets (short term). If he loses, stock plummets My idea is for a PAC to spend a couple million $$ shorting the stock to drive price down, with no intention to profit. Yet there is an art and science to manipulating stock price. To go next level, a PAC would cooperate with a hedge fund that specializes in shorting, such as State Street. They’ve shorted lots of companies into being penny stocks.

DJT is in free-fall, yet its market cap is still massively overvalued. If Trump sells any of his shares, stock price will plummet down in a waterfall selloff. I think a good strategy move against Trump would be to heavily short DJT and drive down stock price. I image a few million $$ shorting DJT would have a big effect.

I see this type of ad as one component in a systems of components designed to take down Trump. One component of a larger strategy is dropping to Trump’s level to attack him psychologically. This type of ad is not targeted to the general public. It’s targeted at Trump’s psychoses and disfunction within his inner orbit. They’ve been effective: Trump has responded to their ads with rage and can amplify dissent. In this case with Loomer and MTG. The ad offensively controls narrative and is frustrating to Lacivita and Wiles, Trump’s only semi-professional campaign staffers that want to focus on policy issues. Other strategic components include mocking Trump on TikTok as well as criticizing him from higher levels.

The Lincoln Project is sooo good at making psychological attack ads.

Trump cologne: grabs ‘em by the pussy.

Vivek Ramaswamy is not an honest broker. Look it his recent interview with Mark Cuban. At best he shades and bends the truth. Yet compared to Trump / Vance blatantly making shit up, Vivek might seem relatively honest.