Forestluv

No they aren’t. There is a reason why politicians follow polls so closely and invest so much money into them.

It doesn’t surprise me at all. It’s been described as a misogynistic culture for years. Ed Henry was recently fired for sexual harassment/assault issues. It’s not easy to get fired at FoxNews for sexual harassment/assault, so it must have been bad.

I’ve read a pulmonary embolism. In his 30s. So young.

So sudden and sad. This was his last live stream. It was on Integral Theory ?

Biden is no Hilary. He is not a boogeyman. Biden is a centrist that has worked with Republicans his whole life. Biden has invited the recent Republican Governor of Ohio, John Kasich, to be a keynote speaker at the Democratic Convention. Biden hasn’t even asked Bernie to speak at the convention. This has infuriated many progressive and democratic unions. Yet that’s who Joe is. He is friends with, and works with, Republicans. He is closer to being a republican than a progressive. Notice how Republican leaders demonized Hilary, yet not a single Republican will speak ill of Biden. They respect and like Biden, as explained by conservative Republican Lyndsey Graham. An ad created by Republicans, for Republicans. “If you can’t admire Joe Biden as a person, you need to do some self evaluation. He is as good a man as God has ever created. He is the nicest person I’ve ever met in politics”. — Conservative Republican Lyndsey Graham.

There is no way Biden would chose Bernie as a running mate. Biden is a centrist and Bernie is a progressive. In Europe, they would be in two different political parties. Biden is in favor of private insurance, supports fracking, opposes decriminalized immigration and wants to increase police funding. These are all centrist positions and Biden has worked his entire career with republicans to pass their legislation. The left has no excitement for Biden. He is much closer to being a moderate republican than a progressive. This is why Trump and FoxNews cannot label him as an extremist. Their efforts to portray Biden as a progressive puppet is laughable. It would be like saying Biden is a closet vegan under the control of PETA.

Wow, I learned some new forum terms. This situation may qualify as a ‘flounce’ ?

That Navy veteran, group of Moms, Portland civilian and woman walking down the street in Miami did nothing to provoke. These are the early stages of fascism.

Settle down. You never asked me. I would have addressed your question if you asked me to. I’m not vegan. You are projecting all sorts of stuff.

There are actual videos of Moms that were there. . . https://twitter.com/hashtag/wallofmoms?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw A peaceful Navy veteran gets beaten and tear gassed. His fingers are broken and he needs surgery. Portland civilians being kidnapped by unmarked federal militia, thrown into unmarked vans and taken to secret locations: Miami police arrest a completely peaceful protestor that was simply walking peacefully down the street. I know it’s hard to acknowledge that our country has devolved so far. Yet we can’t put our heads in the sand. That allows fascism to take root and grow.

Based on my experience of being in a relationship with a solid narcissist. . . She would not say “thank you” because in her mentality, saying “thank you” means that she would owe the person something. I often did kind things for her and she never showed any appreciation. It was as if I owed it to her and she doesn’t want to owe me anything. As well, narcissists will not accept any personal responsibility. Saying “I’m sorry” is a form of taking personal responsibility. The narcissist I dated absolutely refused to take any responsibility. One time, I tested how far she would go. We had an issue that we both were contributing to and she wanted to place 100% of the blame on me. I said I was willing to take 90% responsibility for our problem and I spent several minutes explaining how I contributed to the problem and how I need to improve. I then asked if she would take 10% and look at herself. She refused. I then said I would take 99.9% responsibility as being at fault for all the problems we’ve ever had in the relationship. I asked if there was even ONE thing she had ever done that may have contributed to any problem we had and she gave a firm “No”. She was 100% absolute that she would not take any responsibility under any circumstance. Therefore, she never needs to say “I’m sorry”. This narcissistic dynamic is clearly prevalent with Trump. He deflects 100% responsibility onto to others. Yet he will take 100% credit away from others.

No. There is a difference between protecting a federal building from graffiti and unmarked militia invading the streets of Portland, tear gassing groups of peaceful Mothers and Navy vets, kidnapping regular citizens throughout the city, throwing them into unmarked vans and driving away to undisclosed locations. That is an example of fascism. Every American, regardless of party, should be concerned about this. This is the type of thing that happens in 3rd world countries with dictators. When this has occurred in other countries, the U.S. has stood up, spoken against it and has threatened the country with sanctions or military force. Trump has completely polluted the Republican Party. No previous republican president would have tolerated this type of fascism on American soil. Yet now the republicans sit idly by and say things like “oh, they are just protecting a federal building”. Sounds suspect? Go check out the wallofmoms twitter feed and see what actual Moms are saying. . .

Classic victim blaming. The mentality of “She had it coming”. . . However, it wasn’t a violent protest. It was a peaceful protest of a group of Mothers. Trump’s fascist storm troopers tear gassed a group of peaceful Mothers. Trying to rationalize unmarked federal militia tear gassing peaceful Mothers is waaay outside the social norm. If republicans want to go with the “It’s OK to tear gas peaceful Mothers” strategy, they will lose big time. Tear gassing peaceful Moms does not go over well with female voters and regular Americans. It is red meat for rabid Trumpers. As well, Trump’s militia are kidnapping regular community members, forcing them into unmarked vans and taking them to undisclosed locations in secret. This is not a winning election strategy. It’s not even an election strategy. It is anti-democratic. It is a form of fascism.

Biden is currently up about 9% on the aggregate of polls. Hilary never got close to that. Trump is in a worse position In this stage of the election than any U.S. president in modern history. I think Trump is even lower than Jimmy Carter was. I’m cool with Trumpers thinking Trump is winning and should continue his current strategy. Trump’s storm troopers tear gassing groups of Mothers is not a winning strategy. And some of those Mothers were pregnant. . . Let that sink in: Trump’s fascist militia is tear gassing pregnant women. Last night the Mothers came ‘armed’ with flowers. Tonight the Mothers plan to come ‘armed’ with cupcakes. Tear gassing these Mothers is not going to win over women voters and regular Americans. It only serves as red meat to Trump’s rabid base that wants to “own the libs”. To them, these Mothers were “asking for it”. It’s the mentality of an abusive husband saying “she had it coming”.

Do you realize what it’s like for a woman to get an abortion? You talk about abortion as if it’s like going to the dentist for a tooth cleaning. For most women, this is a mentally, emotionally and physically stressful process. Quite often women need therapy to work through it. As well, many women do not have easy access to clinics that perform abortions or have the financial means to pay for it. This is a straw man. Liberals to not want to pull out babies three days before the due date and kill it. The vast majority of liberals want restrictions on abortions, for example it can only be done in the first two trimesters, unless the woman’s life is in danger. As well, the early developmental stage is an embryo and a later developmental stage is a fetus. An embryo is not a “baby” or “unborn child”. A baby or child is the developmental stage after birth. . . . It would be like calling an infant an “un-aged senior citizen”.

Of course Biden and Trump conduct their own internal polls. Yet that information is not of a higher quality than professional public polls. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. People with this mentality lose tons of money in the stock market. And, it is not that impressive that one in thousands of models has that past performance. Even if we had thousands of shitty models, one of those thousands will get 25 out of 27. Plus, most of those elections were super easy to predict. Any bozo could have predicted Obama would defeat McCain. if we look at the elections that were actually difficult to predict, I would imagine it’s more like 6 out of 8, which isn’t that impressive. And again, it’s about the methodology. Is the methodology updated for current dynamics, or is it relying simply on old metrics? If Trump and republicans believe their own push polls and polls that define Biden, they are at a huge disadvantage. If they believe every single public poll is Fake News, they are at a major disadvantage. They will continue a strategy that isn’t working. This is one of the hardest things for Trump and many republicans - to look objectively at something they don’t want to look at.

No, not the same with Hillary. First, the polls were very close in the 2016. They predicted a 3% Hillary advantage and she won the popular vote by 2%. The main problem with the polls is that they treated each state independently and did not factor in a cluster effect. The polls have been updated. As well, Biden’s lead is much larger than Hilary’s. Even Hilary’s largest lead in 2016 is nowhere near Biden’s lead. Calling the polls “Fake News” would be very advantageous to Biden. If Trump’s campaign believes the polls are fake and the same thing as with Hilary, they have a false sense of security which would be to their disadvantage. For example, if Trump thinks the polls are Fake News and thinks he is actually winning, he will do the same thing he is now (which isn’t working). If the election was today, it would be a landslide for Biden and democrats. One isolated poll or model is very limited. A site like 538 that includes many polls and models has much more statistical power. 91% probability is meaningless if the underlying methodology isn’t sound. Garbage in, garbage out.

I’m curious what you are basing your imaginations on. To me stating that prostitutes have no fear walking the streets and that they feel no shame, fear of judgement sounds naive. Do you have any prostitute friends? Have you volunteered in shelters for prostitutes or done research on the psychology of prostitution? I would predict that social workers and psychologists that work with prostitutes may have very different impressions.

Do you have any idea what it’s like for a prostitute to actually walk the streets? It is very high risk for a lot of prostitutes.

Locked: This is an old thread that is attracting spambots.

In the U.S.A., I would say Tulsi Gabbard.

Thanks. She looks to have an interesting life story. I wish I could have met her in her prime. I may look into her book.

These students are not hypothetical. There are actual students living off their parents, student loans and/or work study that don’t pay income tax. I would disagree in denying them the right to vote. I can see the value of having a minimal understanding of how politics work for someone to vote. However, that can come at a cost of disenfranchising people, taking away their voice and dissolving their concerns. For example, imagine a person that is homeless and has been treated harshly by police. A social worker educates this person about how important there is a grassroots movement trying to shift police funds toward social workers to better help people that are homeless and have mental illness. This resonates with the person and they want to vote for a candidate that supports this social program. That is the major issue in their life. . . How is this different than a single issue conservative that will only vote on pro-life? Why should the single issue pro-life voter be given a voice, while the single issue homeless person gets silenced?

@Nak Khid Should we deny University students that are living on student loans or work study that pay no income tax their right to vote? . . . Should we deny tens of millions of Americans that have lost their jobs due to the mishandling of the Coronavirus that are no longer paying income tax? That is a huge portion of the American workforce and they may want to vote against a president who is mishandling the situation. And they may not be able to pass a civics test about congressional oversight of the executive branch on emolument issues? Yet does this really matter?. . . And how about all they people that are tirelessly working for slave wages and are so underpaid from their full-time job (or three part time jobs) that they don’t qualify to pay taxes? . . . And there are wealthy people that avoid paying taxes through legal loopholes. . . Denying people their vote is often used as a method of disenfranchisement and oppression. It takes away someone’s voice and silences them. Education and tax restrictions to deny voting were used during the reconstruction, Jim Crow and Civil rights eras as means of oppression. I think a much better strategy would be to increase education access, create more employment opportunities, raise corporate and wealth taxes and increase worker salaries. This would increase the average education level and lower class income and more people would be paying income tax, because they now actually have income to be taxed on. As well, uneducated voters are Trump’s base. If they were denied their vote all hell would break lose. So from a practical standpoint, it just isn’t feasible right now.