Forestluv

A quote from CNN caught my eye: ”Pence did his best to recast the reality of Donald Trump's presidency” ‘Recasting the reality’ seems to be a non-inflammatory euphemism for ‘gaslighting’

Apparently a lot of women were turned off by Pence’s mansplaining. I didn’t see him like that. I saw him as gaslighting and evasive.

Having ballots discarded for some reason like they are fraudelent

Rather than address left wing issues, I think she should have prosecuted Pence. It’s like shooting fish is a can. And she is literally a prosecuting attorney. That’s her thing. She sounded like she was coached to be soft, just smile and get talking points across. She was prosecuted Biden harder in the primary debates. Yet this want stay long in the news cycle. By tomorrow afternoon there will be a new topic. Some early polls showing Kamala won. So she may have connected to viewers by talking about their struggles.

To those that value truth, honesty and sincerity - that was super frustrating to watch because some people will fall prey to it. I would have unloaded on Pence. And he was able to get Kamala to attack the left at times to appeal to the center-right. Usually these VP debates don’t move the needle. And Kamala didn’t cause any damage. She just let Pence gaslight. launder and evade. Kamala and the moderator allowed Pence to non-answer wether they will allow a peaceful transfer of power if Biden is declared the winner. And a dozen other instances. Pence spoke calmly about how normal and prosperous America is right now.

Early polling of undecided voters is that Kamala was abrasive and condescending - and Pence looked composed and vice presidential. ? Many Americans have an aversion to truth and are persuaded by con men. Pence was full on gaslighting. It’s hard to see how undeceived voters can fall for it.

Pence looked like a sociopath gaslighting with a soft demeanor and fake empathy. I think Kamala held back on offense. She is a prosecuting attorney. I was disappointed she didn’t prosecute harder. She missed a lot of opportunities and let Pence get away with non-answers on pre-existing conditions, human impact on climate change, Roe v Wade, racism, denouncing white supremacy, worst covid response in the world, accepting the results of the election and more. I wonder if her advisors told her not to look too aggressive and angry. I think Pence lost in the sense of non-stop lying and gaslighting. Yet the perception of viewers is a different ballgame. I hope viewers are aware of Pence’s bullshit. He was full-on alternative reality.

Just one idea. . . For all previous elections, the winner was declared on election night or early morning and the loser concedes that night or next day (except for Bush v Gore). Yet with a big shift to mail -in voting the winner may not be known for several days or a week. That is a big shift in expectations - including media. Having a big one night extravaganza has been great for ratings, yet they may need to prepare the country that it may still be too close to call on election night, if only half the ballots have been tallied. I think one of Trump’s hopes is that he will be slightly ahead on election night and declare victory. The mail in ballots will be overwhelmingly for Biden. As Trump starts falling farther and farther behind, he can claim he was the victor and now Dems are stealing it with fraudulent mail in ballots. . . If the expectation is that we may need to allow a few days after election to count ballots, it favors Biden. If Biden was the victor on election night, his lead would continue to grow over the next few days of mail in counting. I also find it VERY encouraging is Michigan Governer Whitmer signed and executive order to allow counting of mail in ballots a day before Election Day. This will favor Biden and accelerate when Michigan is called for Biden.

I’m curious where Resource Based Economies is on the spiral. It’s gotta be Tier 2.

I imagine “Don’t fawn and look needy” is the first thing guys hear in pick-up. Is it super hard for most guys to control themselves? Are they unaware of their needy behavior? Are women subconsciously aware of subtle forms of needy vibes?

No, I was pretending to be Trump. ? If Trump loses he may say “The Dems stole the election, yet I’m going to do something even bigger than a presidency with my own media network”.

I see this as significant since Zuckerberg is standing up to Trump and MAGA. It’s like the alpha wolf is weakening and the other wolves are getting bolder. From a corporate view, Zuck may be setting himself up for a Biden presidency. It will be interesting to see if corporations start to re-position themselves for a post-Trump world. Keep an eye out for media outlets like FoxNews and if they start aligning with other GOP candidates and shift toward saving the senate with frames like “Don’t give Biden a blank check. Checks and balances are important”.

I think Kyle has a solid frame in the above video. If Biden stays healthy, Trump is toast. I do find it interesting that since Trump got corona-virus - he has backed away from inflaming “Law and Order” conflict and de-legitimizing the election as fraudulent and rigged. I think this is a good sign in that it increases the chances of a peaceful transfer of power. I have a hard time seeing Trump conceding, so it’s hard to imagine how he would step aside. Perhaps something like “The Dems stole the election with fraudelent ballots. Now I’m going to give MAGA something even better, like you’ve never seen. My own media network that will get better ratings than the failing CNN and MSDNC”.

From the perspective of statistical modeling, 2016 is very different than 2020. Clinton had a smaller lead and it went back and forth. Trump would close in to a tie - and then he would do something stupid and go 5 points down. Then he would close in on a tie. . . The cycle repeated itself over and over. This year, Biden has had a remarkably consistent 7-9% national lead. Trump hasn't even gotten close. A couple problems with 2016 was with uneducated white voters and states voting as a cluster - rather than behaving as individual midwest states - the midwest voted as a region. Both of these issues have been corrected in current modeling. At the national level, the polls were very accurate. The final poll aggregate predicted about a 1.8% Clinton win and she won by 2.1%. The current poll aggregate is about 8% for Biden. Also, much of the electorate in 2016 were "double haters" - of both Trump and Hilary. The vast majority of double haters voted for Trump - likely because he was the anti-establishment candidate. This year, the double haters are polling for Biden. Trump's team is trying to portray Biden as a scary socialist - yet it's not sticking. It was much easy to get people to hate Hilary than Joe.

Do you think some local autonomy should be allowed for redneck communities? If the U.S. was governed at the federal level by the majority, I wonder if it's wise to throw redneck communities some scraps of red meat at the local level.

That is reflective of a hyper-polarized electorate that has normalized their ideology. In terms of empirical data and formative modeling, Biden has about an 83% chance of winning. And most of Trump's 17% chance is time uncertainty. If the election were held today formative modeling would put him much lower than 17%. The current betting markets give Trump a 36% chance of winning. So from a statistical perspective, betting against Trump is the smart money. If I could get an even-odds bet with a Trumper I knew would pay up, I'd jump on it. A critical part of a politician's strategy is to portray a winning imagine to their base to keep their morale up. Nobody likes to be a loser and will not participate if they think they will lose. To get people to participate, they need to convince their people their guy can win. This is true in politics, boxing, UFC fighting, sports. . . Imagine Fulham has had an awful year and will be playing a strong Arsenal team. Not many Fulham fans will show up because they don't want to be associated with a loser. To get Fulham fans to show, the team would need to convince their fans that Fulham has a good shot at winning.

Observation, contemplation and nuanced thinking takes effort. Most minds don't want to put the effort in - especially if it isn't in their self interest - that can take things personally and get defensive. At a self-centered personal level, a person needs to have some willingness and desire to look at itself. Usually the motivation is some type of personal gain or relief from suffering. For example, someone may have had lots of conflict in relationships and has always been blaming others - and never taking personal responsibility. If we bring this to the attention to an unwilling mind it will get defensive like "How dare you take their side!!". Yet if the person sees their situation as a problem and is getting tired of suffering, they may open up and start asking "Why do I keep getting into toxic relationships?". Yet a helper would still need to be gentle with this because the mind could easily snap into personal defense mode. We could take about what it would be like to be free of these toxic relationships and have a healthy relationship - that would be a stick. As well, if someone has a baseline level of curiosity - it is far less threatening to point out dynamics of other people's minds (rather than their own). For example, we could say "Isn't it interesting how the mind is oriented toward blaming others - this prevents the mind from introspecting itself". This could seem far less threatening - yet it is still a step away. If the goal is to induce a realization, this would be much weaker medicine. The person could say "Yea, it's too bad those people blame others a lot. I'm glad I don't do that".

Orange Libertarians may support LGBTQ from a personal-rights, small government ideological position, yet they are not going to *fight* for LGBTQ rights and inclusion. It would simply be on principle. Neither Blue nor Orange would value and fight for the inclusion of a marginalized out-group. A good example is Jordan Peterson. He may 'talk' about LGBTQ personal rights in principal, yet he resists the actual inclusion actions to manifest that as reality. They would see the actuality of inclusion and equality as encroaching upon their own personal freedoms to exclude the out-group.

It could be a nuanced mixture and expression of stages. Not every phenomena is cleanly categorized into a stage. At Tier2 it's ok to have categorical ambiguity and uncertainty. That's part of the curiosity, creativity and exploration. I think there is some interesting Green in there, yet it doesn't seem like a clean, traditional pure Green to me. Perhaps because the environment is red/blue centered.

Nice. I hope to visit someday.

What parts of China have you visited?

Border Wall

Yea, that was my point about psyches being a poor tool for personal develop. If there is no person, there is no person to develop. Sure, I can see that happening. It’s the present moment relative to what? A banana?

I’m not sure how to type this one. The Middle East is a different environment than developed countries.

Let’s not forget his heavy metal classic: Nuclear Hurricane ☢️