Forestluv

GA is a tossup. Prognosticators now saying PA is lean Biden. Most of the votes left are in Philly and going overwhelmingly to Biden. This was Trump's game plan - to suppress counting VBM and claim victory on election day. If PA was allowed to count VBM starting Nov. 1st, Biden would have started with a huge lead and Trump would be saying "we can come back! It's not over yet!". It's all optics for Trump.

There remaining votes being counted are in an inner city area of Detroit, mostly poor black voters. 90%+ of those votes are for Biden. And they may think that some fraudulent counting is going on. A lot of Americans are extremely emotional about this election.

It's not quite time to break out the champagne. This morning AZ announced they had more absentee ballots than expected and the NV goose isn't cooked quite yet.

There were more absentee ballots in AZ than originally estimated. Analysts seem to think it's not enough for Trump, yet that AZ is not a done deal yet. AZ will be releasing a batch of data at 7pm est. Biden also has a good chance of winning GA and PA. And a decent chance at NC. Biden is in a strong position, yet this aint over yet. We should know at around 7pm EST is Trump still has a chance. Biden said he will claim victory when his team is confident they have insurmountable leads. Perhaps tonight or tomorrow.

I'm not sure if Trump can take a case straight to the supreme court. He may need to do it at the state level first. The states have mostly rejected his cases. Trump is 0 for 6 in Pennsylvania. Biden is currently up with 270 EVs which is enough to win. It would be unprecedented to stop vote counting during the initial count. Yet if they did, Biden would win. Trump needs to win court cases in which they reject Biden ballots and reverse the state to Trump. That is a much more difficult case to win. The key is that Biden now leads in enough states for 270 EVs. There may be recounts and all sorts of GOP shenanigans. The good news is that it looks like the leads will be 0.5% and higher. Those are hard to reverse. As well, there are Democratic governors and AGs in WI and MI. Part of it will depend on how much public support Trump gets. If Trump looks to lose, Republicans are not going to want to stick with him. They have their own self interest and would likely position themself for a Biden presidency. Or, they would at least stay neutral and say things like "I'm concerned" or "Let's let the process work out". I'm not seeing any Republicans going full-on behind Trump. Biden supporters have said he has an army of lawyers. I hope they are right.

Biden just pulled ahead in Michigan. The remaining votes in un-called states are mail-in and provisional ballots from urban areas that will heavily favor Biden. NV, AZ, WI and MI will not turn flip back blue. The question is how large the lead will be and if Trump can retake it in a recount fairly or steal it in courts. Leads over 0.5% rarely flip in a recount. Right now, Biden is ahead with 270 EVs and a win (270-268). GA, PA are toss-ups. NC will likely go Trump. It helps Biden that WI and MI turned blue early Wednesday morning. If it took until Friday, Trump would have been able to strengthen his "voter fraud" narrative. As of now, it looks pretty weak and mainstream media isn't buying it. If Biden pulls out GA and PA, it would help cushion the lead since Trump would need to over-turn 3 states. It will also help that Biden will have about 53% of the popular vote. This is a straight-up majority and one of the highest vote totals in U.S. election history (higher than both of Obama's election). Although Biden may only win the E.C. by 2 EVs, he has a massive popular vote margin which would give him legitimacy and highlight the problem with the E.C. Yet no changes will be made since Republicans will still control the Senate. I also think its significant that the FoxNews decision desk had independence. They were the first one to call AZ for Biden last night and that was key to undercut Trump's message that he won and his chances to win. The FoxNews decision desk was very accurate on their predictions and presented the odds for Biden accurately. There is going to be immense pressure on the FoxNews desk to hold back on calling another state, yet I'm very grateful they were the first to call AZ for Biden. FoxNews hosts even pressured their analyst to reverse his call and he refused to. That is what independence looks like. Many people in power (like Trump) hate that type of independence and objectivity. They want loyalty. This is part of the degradation of U.S. systems of government. Agencies like the EPA, Justice Department, Federal Reserve and scotus used to have a lot more independence to be objective. Yet that has degraded.

5 states left: WI, MI, PA, GA, NC. Biden needs 2 of them.

5 states left: WI, MI, PA, GA, NC. Biden needs 2 of them. I would have phrased it differently. That's literally what every candidate on the losing side of a close election says. Perhaps something like "We are in a strong position and I'm confident that we will win the remaining ballots to be counted the next few days".

Biden speaking now, yet is framing it all wrong. He actually said "It's not over until every vote is counted". Arggghh. That is what the candidate who refuses to concede a close election. At least he got ahead of Trump and ended by saying "We are going to win this!" Trump about to take the stage after tweeting "A Big Win!". Let's see if he declares victory.

Only Atlanta left to be counted, baby! C'mon Atlanta you - can do it.

NE-02 looks in the bag for Biden. He just needs MI and WI to hit 270. He can pull this out. I'd rather be Biden than Trump at this point. Trump's chance of winning has dramatically increased, yet Biden still has more paths to victory Things could be close. I hope Biden has an army of lawyers like people said.

The polls were way off in a lot of states. AZ for Biden keeps him in the race. My guess is that Trump's lead in WI won't hold. A good chance Trump loses his lead in MI. Then is comes down to NE-02, ME-02, PA and court battles.

Where are you getting that live forecast?

I'm not sure about EVs. If it turns out to be a close election, AZ getting called this early is a big deal since it won't be contested in the future. AZ is a key battleground state. If Biden wins WI and MI convincingly, he just needs one more state or NE-2 + ME-2. It's not the clear victory Dems were hoping for. Biden and Trump are both in decent positions.

Of course not. Those are mostly election day votes reported. Mail in ballots take much longer to count. In PA, none of the five big counties in the Philadelphia area have reported more than 33 percent of their expected vote, and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has reported just 17 percent. It won't be a landslide for either Trump or Biden. The polls were off, yet Biden still has a decent chance.

Looks like Biden has AZ. He just needs one more. Things could stretch out for a while. This is exactly what Trump's team wanted - suppress counting of mail-in votes so Trump would have a lead on election night. It won't be the landslide Dems were hoping for, yet there are a ton of mail-in votes to be counted and Biden just needs one more state (assuming NV, WI and MI stay true to form). The only swing state called for Trump so far is Florida.

It depends on which counties have voted and whether early or in person votes are reported. For example, if mostly deep red R+20 counties have reported and Trump is only up 5% - they will likely call it for Biden.

Florida looks to be for Trump. Miami was a train wreck for Biden. Ohio, North Carolina and Texas look very interesting.

Repubs are lagging behind most states in terms of party ID of mail in and early votes, yet no actual votes have been counted or released yet. We don't know which votes individual states will release first. The mainstream story is that more Rs will vote election day. So if a state releases mostly EV votes first, it could appear Dems are winning more than they are. If a state released mostly ED votes, it could appear Repubs are winning more than they are. Also watch benchmarks. If Trump is only up 4% in a R+ 8% precinct, that is bad news for Trump. (And vice-versa) It depends on the margin and how the narrative plays out. There isn't an official "announcement". It's not like someone announces who the winner is. Results will gradually be released starting about 8pm EST and people will start analyzing the results as who is winning. Media networks will start calling states for Trump or Biden tonight around 9pm. The obvious states like NY and Alabama will get called fast. The swing states like PA will take longer, depending on margin. The range for swing states would be anywhere from about 2am Nov. 4th to another week or so. The first major indicators will be North Carolina and Florida. They usually get results out quick, perhaps around 9pm or so will be a fair sample size to start making some predictions. They are biased relative to the other polling agencies. Yet we don't know who is the most accurate yet. Trafalgar did pretty well in the 2016 election. If they do well in 2020, it would greatly elevate their credibility and methodology.

This is based on Republican-funded polls, such as Trafalgar (who recently got busted for not disclosing that they are republican-funded). The A / A+ rated polls the last week all have Biden up between 5-7pts. It could be that republican-funded polls, like Trafalgar, are right and it's an even race in PA - yet it's not quite fair to call it a "trend". 538 has Biden up 4.7% in PA with very slight tightening.

Tomorrow night about 8pm est.

The recent 538 PA polls have been consistent at 4-7pt. The last three A+ polls have Biden +6, right where he has been. The 538 model went from an 87% Biden chance 10 days ago to an 85% chance today. Essentially the same. There may be other factors about PA to be concerned about, yet not polling.

For interested in prediction models like 538, keep in mind that a "90% chance for a Biden win" does not necessary mean a conniving win. Some of the data points within the 90% are narrow Biden wins of just a few EVs. Some of the data points are a solid win and some data points are a landslide win. Yet all the data points within Trump's 10% chance are narrow wins. It would be like having a random male basketball player behind door #1 and a random male from the general population behind door #2. There is a 90% chance the basketball player will be taller - anywhere from a little bit taller to much taller. In the 10% chance the regular dude is taller, he would probably just be a little bit taller than the basketball player.

You can observe neurotransmitters like watching a thunderstorm or the feeling of the sun. For example, right now you are feeling the effect of neurotransmitters, similar to feeling the heat of the sun. And you can observe. I found it helpful to loosen up on my ideas of what it "should be like" and allow observation, imagery and experience to go to deeper levels. Neurotransmitters aren't like tiny ping pong balls bounding around in the brain. That is just a representation of imagery. There are all sorts of representations we can create. There are quantum representations of material / immaterial / particle / wavelength / energetics / probabilities. And you can create your own representations of imagery that you can observe / feel.

Please don’t alter my comments to fit your narrative. I’m not saying you are incorrect. I’m saying these are your creations, projections and explorations. I wish you the best with it.