Forestluv

Yea. About 22,000 in Dem stronghold and about 4k military. And a bunch of provisional. It looks like Biden will take a very small lead - perhaps 1-2k. I don't see GA being called for Biden. Yet it's still significant for Biden to be the "presumptive winner" in GA during the extended process of military, provisional counting and a recount. Trump's strategy is largely dependent upon narrative control and optics. If Biden has the lead in GA, it undercuts Trump's ability to control narrative and optics. It's another point in which he appears as a loser and needs to play defense. Trump was clearly the defensive posture of a candidate on the losing side of a close election. Trump looks awful playing defense - he much prefers controlling the narrative with offense. Trump would MUCH rather be in Biden's position right now. He would be full-throated offense demanding Biden concede. If Biden is narrowly ahead in NV, AZ, PA and GA there will be a lot of calls for him to concede. He will be like a cornered rat.

GA update: newly counted votes in Chatham Co., GA (Savannah) just cut Trump's statewide lead to 3,635 votes (0.1%). There aren't many votes left, yet they are all in Dem strongholds. I predict Biden to narrowly pull ahead and a recount (and lots of lawsuits).

Based on the Pennsylvania SOS website, Biden needs to win 80% of the remaining Philly votes and 55% of statewide votes outside Philly. That is very doable and I think Biden will pull ahead - yet I'm not seeing a 100k-200k range lead. I predict Biden by 50-90k

PA update: Pennsylvania’s top election official says it may take longer than expected to complete the count there. Her office says about 326,000 mail ballots still need to be counted. Biden has been steadily winning 70%+ of VBM. Based on 326k uncounted ballots and a current Trump lead of 78k: (326k * 0.7) - (97.8k + 78k) = a 52k Biden lead. If there are 326k clean votes, there would be a 52k Biden lead. Assuming Biden and Trump split provisional votes, it means an 0.8% Biden lead. That is close, yet enough to call Biden the presumptive winner. There could be a recount and likely lots of lawsuits. Yet if 100k of those 326k are provisional and problematic votes they put aside - that would mean it's essentially tied and there would be a monster fight over technical details of provisional ballots.

All predictive models are based on underlying assumptions. Based on their assumptions, they were 99%+ confident in their prediction - yet as new information arises, those assumptions could be slightly off - leading to a 90% confidence level. For example: based on previous elections, exit polls and early returns - we might assume that Biden would get between 65-75% of VBM for a county. Yet as returns roll in, there is a difference between VBM that was received early and VBM received on election day. Perhaps nationwide Republicans discouraged VBM, yet Republicans in Arizona promoted early VBM such that Biden only wins 55%-65% vote by mail. When we update the predictive model, Biden's chance drops from 99% to 90%. This is below the threshold for calling a race, yet we wouldn't want to retract our call - because it would look awful. FoxNews and the AP have been using the most aggressive models and the first to call states. When they get it, they look great. Yet in this case, the call was premature. Biden is likely still the favorite, yet not enough to call the race. Rather than retract their call, FoxNews and the AP are being extra cautious on NV - they are waiting for the next AZ data release to confirm their call.

The question in PA is whether there are enough uncounted votes to put Biden over without provisional votes, cured votes and late arriving votes. These votes will greatly favor Biden, yet will take much longer to process - giving Trump time to create lawsuits and chaos. My hope is that there are enough votes today to put Biden up today, yet it may be close.

That assumes Biden gets AZ. It's not yet 100% certain Biden as AZ. Imagine being FoxNews or the AP: they were the first to aggressively call AZ for Biden and now there might be a 10% chance Trump wins AZ. . . NV looks like an easy call for Biden, yet if FoxNews does so - that means they call the election for Biden. Albeit unlikely, if Trump gets 60% of the remaining vote in AZ, FoxNews would have to reverse their AZ decision AND say "Oops! Biden didn't actually win yet". That would be a nightmare scenario for FoxNews and would be terrible for social unrest. FoxNews and the AP are waiting to confirm AZ before they call NV for Biden. It's actually more clear that Biden will win NV than AZ

Update: Biden campaign spokesperson just made a press statement that based on their data analytics, Biden will win. Of course, this doesn't change vote counts, yet Biden's team is very cautious about making statements like this. That they did means they are confident they have the numbers. NV looks callable at this point, yet I think FoxNews and the AP are holding back. Since they called AZ for Biden, calling NV for Biden declares him the victor. Rather than undo their AZ call, I think FoxNews / AP is sitting on NV until they can confirm AZ.

In PA, Trump was able to temporarily halt vote counting - yet he lost the case in the PA supreme court and counting continues. It's a really big deal if Biden gets the lead in PA - the only uncounted votes are in Blue counties. There would be no way for Trump to come back. This would completely change the narrative - not just for PA, for the entire election.

Update 1: Trump was able to temporarily suspend PA vote counting with a lawsuit. Yet the PA supreme court over-ruled a lower court and counting has continued. As I've said - Trump is frantically trying to stop the PA vote count before Biden claims the vote lead. Once Biden has the vote lead, the narrative changes and PA starts looking like MI. At that point, it's silly for Trumpers to demand PA stop vote counting because Biden would win! Trump currently has a 116,000 lead in PA - this is 3-4 hrs worth of vote counting full blast. If PA is allowed to count at full speed, Biden would have the lead this afternoon around 4pm est. Update 2: GA courts just dismissed a Trump lawsuit to stop the vote counting. Biden has about a 60% chance of taking a slight lead in GA this afternoon and narrowly winning it. The lead is projected to be so small that there would be a recount. Keep in mind that Trump's strategy has a lot to do with narrative control and optics. That's his game. If states are called for Biden, that damages Trump's narrative and optics. The narrative of "over-turn" the result after Biden is called the victor is MUCH weaker than "stop fraudelent vote counting" before Biden is called the victor.

There is record VBM due to covid. And mail-in ballots have two envelopes to be opened and then there is extra processing of the ballot (such as signature verification). In densely populated urban areas, there are millions of VBM ballots to open and process. This is why the GOP pushed so hard to prevent early counting of VBM. . . VBM greatly favors Biden, so the GOP slowed voting down by preventing early counting of votes and preventing the use of high-speed VBM counters. This has slowed the voting down and has allowed the GOP to sow seeds of doubt. The slow counting is 100% due to efforts by Trump and the GOP for the last few months. This is their gameplan. They didn't even hide it. The let everyone know this was their gameplan months ago.

Please be mindful of going into conspiracy speculation territory. There is a lot of "he said and then what if and then what if and then I suspect. . . " in there.

I think PA is the key. Based on the data - PA will look like WI and MI (a close, yet clear Biden win). This is why Trump and the GOP have been fighting so hard to delay PA vote counting for months. If PA was allowed to start vote counting Nov. 2nd, it would already be called for Biden (similar to WI and MI). Of the remaining states, I have the most confidence in PA holding strong for election integrity. Trump is 0 for 6 in PA lawsuits. The state of PA are giving a press conference this afternoon. Biden's team is looking more confident and Trump's team is looking more panicky and filing lawsuits. Based on the data available, it looks like Biden will win PA by about 1%, a little more than WI. The margin is significant. A 1% margin would make calls for a recount absurd. A recount will not overturn a 100,000 vote margin. Trump would be reduced to trying to overturn it through "fraud". That is very unlikely to get traction through PA courts (that have already rejected all six of Trump lawsuits). I'm not sure if Trump could go straight to scotus. If the state of PA declares PA for Biden, outside the margin of recount - it would be a really bad look for scotus to throw out 100,000 votes. Trump is claiming that all votes received after Nov. 3rd not be counted. I don't think that would be enough though. And PA election law clearly states that any VBM ballot postmarked by Nov. 3rd is legit. I can't see scotus over-ruling that law. Trump is also claiming that PA officials stamped late votes as Nov. 3rd, yet that is in the whacko category and I can't see any court taking that seriously.

AZ is not a done deal yet. Elections officials have revealed where the outstanding ballots are from, yet not what type of ballots they are. In AZ, early VBM, late VBM and day of election VBM have had different dynamics whether they favor Biden or Trump. Trump needs about 60% of the uncounted ballots, which is still doable if they are the type of VBM that favors him. Generally, VBM favors Biden - yet Arizona is unique in that they had a republican drive for GOTV - VBM. In an average of all VBM groups, Trump would not hit 60% - yet if the uncounted votes are a specific VBM subgroup - Trump could hit 60% and catch up. Since AZ is not revealing the type of uncounted groups, AZ cannot yet be called for Biden with confidence. The FoxNews analysts are sticking by their call of AZ for Biden - so they may have information that is publicly unavailable. With the information publicly available, Biden is favored in AZ - yet it is not a lock. At this point: NV. PA, and AZ are lean Biden. There is a chance for a recount. There will and likely be lawsuits. (Some lawsuits may already be submitted) GA is a tossup. Most predictors are giving a very small edge to Biden. There will likely be a recount and lawsuits have already been submitted. NC is lean Trump. It doesn't look like standard votes would be enough for Biden. He would most likely need provisional and cured ballots, which would greatly favor Biden. NC may not be known for a while, yet Biden isn't completely out of it yet. A good scenario for Biden would be to win three of AZ, NV, GA, PA. That would put him well above 270 EVs. Biden would be declared the presumptive winner and could declare victory. Trump would need to flip multiple states through recounts or lawsuits. A less good scenario for Biden is if he narrowly only wins two of AZ, NV, GA, PA and is exactly 270 votes. Trump would only need to flip one state and would be pushing recounts and lawsuits in multiple states. Biden could declare victory, yet if there is a pending recount - I could see Dems playing soft and claiming a "presumptive victory, pending the recount". Depending on the margin, there is chance of scotus entering. I also think timing matters. The sooner states are called for Biden, the better. The uncertainty is allowing MAGA energy to grow and Trump more time to create his fraud narrative. A situation is which Trump "could" win a state is very different than a situation in which a state has been called for Biden and Trump needs to overturn that via a recount or lawsuits. One thing to watch out for in PA. The remaining votes favor Biden by about 3:1. If and win Biden has the vote count lead, he will not lose it. It will only grow larger. Trump has filed lawsuits trying to stop the PA vote counting, trying to stop PA from counting ballots postmarked by Nov. 3rd, yet received after Nov. 3rd. If Biden gets the count lead - Trump will only be able to win PA through a recount or lawsuits. Attaining the vote lead in PA would be a big shift in the narrative favoring Biden. The good news for Biden is that PA aint FLA. PA is serious about counting all the votes. The next two closest states WI and MI have large enough Biden leads that Trump has given up trying to flip them.

Time doesn't matter. I just don't know how late the vote counters work at night. I'm predicting Biden takes over PA for good after about 6 more hours of vote counting. The lead is down to 246K. That correlation is tight. Joe has steadily been winning 75% of VBM.

The FoxNews decision team has been the most aggressive network calling states, including states like AZ to Biden. They now have Biden at 264 EVs. One state away from victory. I'm amazed at how much independence their decision team has. FoxNews will likely be the first network to call the election for Biden. How bizarre is that? And Trump's narrative of "fraud" is undercut when FoxNews is the first to call Biden the winner. Ironically, CNN has been the most cautious in calling races for Biden. What a crazy thing.

Trump getting desperate. It will be interesting to see the stench of "loser" tarnishes Trump's appeal to MAGA. They've had quite the symbiotic relationship.

0.997 is a thing of beauty. Assuming the number of uncounted votes is accurate, Trump is gonna lose PA. At the current pace of counting, the chart predicts Biden will take over the lead after 6 more hours of counting. I'm not sure how late they will count. Around midnight tonight or tomorrow morning.

This is why Trump's team is panicking about PA and claiming fraud. There is a near perfect correlation between the number of uncounted votes and Trump's lead that predicts Biden will win PA comfortably. Trump's team is trying to get ahead to set a "fraud" narrative before their inevitable defeat.

That is the Republican game plan: count in-person rural / suburbs first and suppress VBM and urban counting. Get an early lead, claim victory then question the "flip". Imagine a town with 55% Biden voters and 45% Trump voters. If we count mostly Trump voters first, it will appear he has a big lead and he can claim victory. As the Biden votes are counted Trumpers can claim it's being "flipped" and there is fraud. It's all optics. The Trumpers were never "ahead". Nothing "flipped". It just appears that way since mostly Trump votes were counted first.

Part of the problem with Trump's story is lack of evidence. Trump has been claiming for months that "thousands of ballots with his name were found in a drainage ditch". Yet when the interviewer asks "What drainage ditch? Where?", Trump's response is something like "the drainage ditch being reported". When the interviewers asks "Reported by whom?", Trump's response is "By the people reporting the drainage ditch". That type of argument doesn't hold up well in court. In any election, there is likely 0.05% or so error / fraud that could go both ways. There are likely a few hundred or so bad ballots here and there for both candidates. And there have also been reports of a 200,000 vote anomaly in Trump's favor in Miami.

Yes. Trump has a 300,000 lead, yet most of the uncounted votes are inner city Philly. They are going 90%+ to Biden. Trump's team were able to prevent early voting counting in several states. I feel for the Philly voters marching tonight demanding their votes be counted. The good news is that their is a democrat governor committed to counting all votes. There is also the problem of expectations. In nearly all elections, Americans know the winner by the next morning. Yet VBM takes longer to process. States need to start counting VBM a couple days before election day or people need to adjust that the winner won't be called until a couple days after election day.

MI and WI have already been called for Biden. The lead will increase in NV. AZ reported more than expected absentee ballots, so we won't be 100% sure until tonight. PA looks lean Biden. Biden's team is confident and Trump's team is panicking. GA is predicted to be razor thin. I don't trust GA, and don't have too much hope. NC looks lean Trump. AZ is doing a data dump at 9pm est. We should know then if it's over.

This is the exact strategy people have been saying Trump would do for months: prevent VBM to be counted prior to election day. If Philly was allowed to count VBM on Nov. 3rd, Biden would have a huge lead now and PA would be like AZ. Trumper's would be saying their are still some uncounted votes and they can come from behind.

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