Forestluv

PA update: According to PA law, an auto recount is triggered if a lead is less than 0.5%. The AP has stated that they will not call PA without clear evidence of a >0.5% lead, and other media networks are following suit. In this context, it seems reasonable not to call PA - since it is a state-mandated recount. There is no doubt Biden will end with the lead, yet there still is doubt whether it will be >0.5% and for all we know, the AP and others want to see 0.6% as a cushion. . . Recounts generally have changes of hundreds of votes an occassion a few thousand - yet not 10s of thousands. However, it the recount would take 1-2 weeks and empower Trumpers / FoxNews that this isn't over. The propaganda, conspiracies, fraud claims, protests would be full blast if it came down to a PA recount. GA has already stated there will be a state-mandated recount. AZ has a state-mandated recount for margins <.01%. The good news for Biden is that AZ does not allow a candidate to request a recount. So to have the election called soon, without 1-2 weeks of recounts and legal battles - Biden needs NV + AZ with a clear lead over 0.1% in AZ. Or a clear lead over 0.5% in PA. It looks like Biden will have a lead in AZ and is sure to have a lead in PA, yet the question is if the leads will be large enough to prevent state-mandated recounts. The Pennsylvania SOS site reports there are 112,796 uncounted mail in ballots. Biden has been winning about 75% VBM. However, PA has not stated if all uncounted mail in ballots are eligible to be counted. As well, MSNBC has reported their are about 100,00 provisional ballots. Those generally break for Dems, yet I don't know if that's an assumption we can make in this election. As well, there are military and overseas ballots. Based on the projected vote total, a 0.05% lead will be about 35k votes. Biden currently has a 14.3k lead, so he needs at least 21k more and an extra 1-2k would be nice as a cushion. Assuming all the uncounted mail in votes are eligible the math is (112,796 * 0.75) - (112,796 * 0.25) = 56.4k. Plus Biden's current 14.3k lead gives a total lead of 69.7k. That is a 1.0% lead and likely enough to call it on non-provisionals. Yet this assumes all the remaining mail-in ballots are eligible. Even so, Trump wouldn't be mathematically out of a recount if all provisionals were eligible and he won 70% of provisionals / military / overseas. That would bring him into the auto recount zone. I don't know how much of a cushion Biden needs on non-provisionals for the race to be called. As well, Trump had a lawsuit victory in which all mail-in ballots post-marked Nov.3rd or before, yet were received after election day are counted separately and not added to the total. The good news for Biden is that these will likely overwhelmingly favor him (about 3:1). This is why Trump is making such a strong effort to prevent these ballots from being added to the total. Biden could win outright without those ballots, yet as I described above, it's uncertain if Biden's lead will be large enough to ensure there isn't a state-mandated recount. If Trump is successful in blocking the post-marked ballots and it goes to recount - that gives Trumpers opportunity and time to create a chaotic, mess. The alternative is that Biden gets NV and AZ (>.01%). If AZ is over, yet close to, .01% I assume Trump will fight in courts to have a recount. This is exactly why Trump wanted his scotus justices. The AP and FoxNews already called AZ, which is not yet 100% certain to be outside of recount territory. NV looks like a lock for Biden, yet the AP and FoxNews won't call it due to the AZ uncertainty. And another trick is that NV doesn't have an auto recount rule, yet a candidate can request a recount, which Trump would certainly to try and block Biden from 270. So now the AP and FoxNews have to decide what is reasonably close for a recount. FoxNews likely pulled the plug on the dude who called AZ, so it looks like the AP is the main player here. Since 0.5% is the highest threshold for a state-mandated recount, that could be the APs standard. Currently, Trump's team wants to slow down the release of NV and AZ data as they sow seeds of fraud and doubt about the mail in process. Trump and FoxNews have changed their tone to "we want all legal votes counted. This election put a lot of demands on mail in voting and we just want to see if there were any problems". This has gotten some traction in that they were able to recruit constitutional lawyer Johnathon Turley to take this position. Turley isn't a RWNJ - he is seen as a mainstream moderate. I think Turley went on FoxNews on good faith and wasn't aware of the underlying strategy. Biden is clearly in the stronger position, yet timing and margins matter. If Trumpers can delay and block votes to stay within recount zones - it will empower their "this isn't over yet" narrative and I think the Dems are a bit too willing to play the "let's let the process work itself out". If we get into recounts, Trumpers / FoxNews will be greatly empowered, get some narrative control back and things could get messy. Right now, the iron is hot for Biden and he his seen by most as the presumptive winner - yet that can change if there is a state-mandated recount in PA, the AP doesn't call NV for Biden and Trump requests a NV recount (or gets a recount in AZ). Wisconsin Republicans encouraged Trumpers in PA to mail in ballots late - perhaps to cause a mess. Right now, Trump is playing defense and the winds are against him - yet that can change. Timing and Biden margins are important.

John Legend singing a out a classic to Georgia.

Philadelphia is now dancing to the theme song of Trump's rallies: "YMCA". (Second video below). Trump got absolutely destroyed in Philly and the Philly suburbs.

Philly reactions Biden taking the lead in Pennsylvania this morning. The "Dancing In the Streets" comment refers to a classic Motown song that referenced Philadelphia, by Martha and the Vandellas. They were an African American girl group formed in Detroit in 1957. In 2016, urban voters were partially blamed for Trump's win. This year, urban voters turned out big time in predominately black cities like Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia - to tip those states to Biden. It's an invitation across the nation A chance for folks to meet There'll be laughing, singing, and music swinging Dancing in the street Philadelphia, PA (dancing in the street) Baltimore and D.C. now (dancing in the street) Can't forget the Motor City (dancing in the street) All we need is music, sweet music (sweet music) There'll be music everywhere (everywhere) There'll be swinging, swaying, and records playing Dancing in the street

The below map is based on states with current leads. And based on current data, this is the most likely map. (A recount has been ordered in GA). Biden would have 306 EVs, the exact number Trump had in 2016. Yet Biden would also win the popular vote by 4m, which Trump lost by 3m. In terms of states won, it is actually very close to 538s prediction (yet the margins were narrower). I'm curious: Did anyone predict in this thread predict this map?

This video has been debunked as manipulated. It has been blocked by facebook and twitter as misinformation. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/04/bogus-vote-fraud-claims-proliferate-social-media/ Biden was talking about an effort to combat voter fraud, not an actual organization to commit voter fraud. Later in his answer, he even referred specifically to the campaign organization: “We have over a thousand lawyers, over a thousand of them, they’ll answer the phone, if you think there’s any challenge to your voting.” This type of video editing — typical of the Trump operation — is an example of isolation under The Fact Checker’s Guide to Manipulated Video: “Sharing a brief clip from a longer video that creates a false narrative that does not reflect the event as it occurred.” Spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories on the forum is against forum guidelines and may warrant a warning.

Republicans are starting to take a stand against Trump. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and the Republican majority leader of the PA state Senate say all 20 of Pennsylvania’s EVs will go to the popular vote winner (Biden). These are the same guys that fought to delay VBM counting in Pennsylvania for Trump. Now they say Trump won’t get any of Pennsylvania’s 20 EVs. As Trump loses power, more Republicans will break from him.

Police are investigating a plot to attack the Philadelphia convention center where votes are being counted.

Apparently, Trumps’s spiritual advisor was unable to summon enough angles.

It should happen in about 2 hrs or so. Pennsylvania has been like a 36 hour N.Y.E. ball drop.

This is the type of intra-party fighting that happens when a party loses. There are only two parties in the U.S. so subgroups often form and fight. With Trump’s loss, the Trumper’s are a subgroup within the Republican Party. If Biden had lost, SettleForBiden progressives would have been outraged at neo-liberal Dems. It also looks like Jr. may be trying to position himself for a future political career. And the comment section in YT is batshit crazy.

He made those comments a couple days ago. I think FoxNews and the AP overestimated Biden's share of VBM. AZ is the only state where Trump is competitive in VBM. I've read that AZ republicans had a big push for VBM.

Yes, but I think it will be anti-climatic. I don't think GA will be called for a while since it is so close. PA is totally different. It should have been called by now. For some reason, media networks won't make the call yet.

The remaining ballots are in Dem strongholds. Biden is predicted to have a very narrow lead after non-provisional ballots are counted. Clayton county is releasing data by midnight EST that should give Biden a small lead. Yet I doubt GA will be called for Biden since it's so close.

200,000 ballots in Maricopa. Based on the last data release that would be +24k votes to Trump and knocks Biden's lead down to 22k. Trump will not concede and states will not be called for Biden on razor thin margins, due to military, provisional ballots and recount. Leads over 0.5% are likely for states to be called for Biden and for him to be the perceived winner. FoxNews and the AP made an aggressive, early call on AZ the night of the election. It looks like Biden is favored in AZ, yet it's not a lock yet.

PA update. Trump's lead is down to 42k. Biden will claim the lead in a few hours. The data released by the Pennsylvania SOS clearly show Trump has zero chance of coming back. At this point, narrative is important. Media networks need to grow a pair and call PA for Biden when he seizes the lead. PA is totally different than GA. The PA data predicts Biden 1%+. That is more than WI. . . . In 2016, networks were calling midwest states for Trump with razor thin leads. A mainstream media narrative of "Biden is the presumptive winner of PA, pending provisional ballots and litigation" is waaaay to pro-Trump.

GA update: just announced that Clayton, county GA will report its remaining 5.7K ballots by midnight EST. That should be enough to give Biden the lead. I don't think GA will be called for a while since it's so close. Yet the optics of Biden leading during provisional, military and potential recount puts Trump deeper into defense and undercuts his narrative.

The data just released shows AZ is still in play. It looks like Biden will narrowly lead in GA on non-provisional ballots. Yet a lead of 1-2k votes is not enough of a cushion for military and provisional ballots. I don't see NC or GA being officially called for another week. GA is potentially a recount. And NV doesn't have enough EVs. This makes it even more important that PA has a solid lead of 1%+.

Since the vote counting resumed in PA, Biden has been steadily gaining about 10k votes / hour. Trump's lead is 63k, so at the current pace Biden will claim the lead in about 6hrs. Biden will overtake Trump tomorrow (unless PA picks up the pace, there is a massive Philly data release or they count through the night). Once Biden takes the vote lead, there is no turning back. Biden has been steadily winning 65%+ of VBM. Biden is winning VBM in red counties. The only question is how big Biden's lead will be before provisional and military ballots. Based on the Pennsylvania SOS numbers, I'm predicting around a 60k Biden lead on non-provisional clean ballots. This would be enough of a cushion to declare Biden the winner prior to counting provisional and military ballots and it's outside the normal recount range. My hunch is that PA is going to lead the way. NC and GA are too close and will stretch out for another week,. NV isn't enough EVs since AZ has been M.I.A. It's possible AZ releases enough data to declare a winner - yet I'm going with PA. . . Prior to the election, everyone was calling PA the "tipping" state and that's how I see it playing out.

Perhaps good genetics and mentality. I think he lacks character, yet I acknowledge the guy is a fighter and has some dark skills.

PA update: earlier today Trump won a couple lawsuits to give Republican poll watchers greater access. By law, a political party can have representatives observing the vote counting process. The court ruled that PA election officials were not giving Trump's team enough access for meaningful observation to take place. They ruled that Republican poll watchers be allowed withing 6 ft of vote counting, yet could not interfere. I actually like this ruling. This is an important aspect of democracy. As well, it is important for framing. The PA courts look mature and reasonable. And, ruling in Trump's favor and allowing greater observation access greatly undercuts Trump's claim of shady vote counting behind closed doors. The room now has plenty of Republican vote watchers. (I also read PA was livestreaming the vote counting, which would be awesome for transparency. I hope livestreaming of vote counting becomes the norm for all elections. PA update 2: A federal judge just denied Trump's attempt to stop the vote counting in PA - but ordered officials to expand the number of people each side could have in the room. To me, this is the ideal ruling. It allows vote counting to continue and undercuts Trump's claims that there is fraudulent vote counting. So far, the courts are making good rulings - imo. One of the biggest factors is allowing PA vote counting. Assuming estimates of uncounted votes, Biden is now a heavy favorite to claim the lead in PA and when he does, it shifts the narrative. I'm impressed by how PA is conducting their election.

@Frylock Part of the process is narrative control and public perception. If Biden is viewed as the presumptive winner (pending a couple recounts) - Trump becomes the presumptive loser playing defense. It would be much harder for him to get support from the GOP, DOJ, courts etc. At the end of the day, politicians are still politicians. Republicans that won elections are positioning themselves for the future. They would stay neutral, rather than tie themselves to Trump. It's similar to an alpha wolf on the decline. To me, Trump's tone is shifting toward blaming others for his loss, rather than fighting for a win. He still has some fight left in him, yet much less than previously, imo.

Yea. About 22,000 in Dem stronghold and about 4k military. And a bunch of provisional. It looks like Biden will take a very small lead - perhaps 1-2k. I don't see GA being called for Biden. Yet it's still significant for Biden to be the "presumptive winner" in GA during the extended process of military, provisional counting and a recount. Trump's strategy is largely dependent upon narrative control and optics. If Biden has the lead in GA, it undercuts Trump's ability to control narrative and optics. It's another point in which he appears as a loser and needs to play defense. Trump was clearly the defensive posture of a candidate on the losing side of a close election. Trump looks awful playing defense - he much prefers controlling the narrative with offense. Trump would MUCH rather be in Biden's position right now. He would be full-throated offense demanding Biden concede. If Biden is narrowly ahead in NV, AZ, PA and GA there will be a lot of calls for him to concede. He will be like a cornered rat.

GA update: newly counted votes in Chatham Co., GA (Savannah) just cut Trump's statewide lead to 3,635 votes (0.1%). There aren't many votes left, yet they are all in Dem strongholds. I predict Biden to narrowly pull ahead and a recount (and lots of lawsuits).

Based on the Pennsylvania SOS website, Biden needs to win 80% of the remaining Philly votes and 55% of statewide votes outside Philly. That is very doable and I think Biden will pull ahead - yet I'm not seeing a 100k-200k range lead. I predict Biden by 50-90k