Hardkill
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Posts posted by Hardkill
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I really wish there was a way to mobilize many millions of people to do a civil rights movement against the Supreme Court and the Republicans in Congress like MLK and Malcolm X did in the 50s and 60s.
How can political activists ever fight back against MAGA if Trump gains "absolute power"? I am very terrified of our rights and our money being taken away from us by the right-wing. I am already imagining 90+% of the whole country being enslaved in MAGA concentration camps like the way Nazis imprisoned and murdered the Jews, the Polish, and anyone else who stood against their evil regime.
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15 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:The Devil is actually quite charming there.
He gave a really bad speech at the RNC. It's wasn't just racist, xenophobic, and divisive as part of his M.O. His speech was not even captivating at all. He sounded he was slurring, had low energy, and sounded more psychotic than he was either in 2016 or 2020.
In fact, all of his most recent speeches have shown that he's not as charismatic as he used to be. He now comes off as an mentally unstable old man who's still trying to grab absolute power, and needs to be seriously sent to either a mental institution or a maximum security prison.
He's become like that old Mad King in GoT.
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On 7/19/2024 at 9:38 AM, ryandesreu said:Will a second Trump term really improve the economy?
Why would the US economy be better under when he totally fucked it up under his watch during his first term as president?
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15 minutes ago, Raze said:The closest poll listed for Truman to this date says 40 approval 44 disproval, your link shows Biden at 38 approval 56 disapproval. More importantly Truman’s approval increased significantly before the election, no indication that’ll happen for Biden.
The link I sent you showed the average of polls pre 2020 election had Biden winning +7, the actual result was he won +4, so they overestimated Biden in 2020, not Trump.
Elections that happened 40 years ago and in completely different scenarios are not relevant. What matters is recent polling and long term trends, both do not favor Biden.
Sorry, I meant the Polls have now been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really underestimated Trump and his party in 2020.
Truman still had about the same level of approval rating before he won another term. ask any political scientist or historian about this. THey tell you what I've been telling you.
Each election has different scenarios and yet the polls has always been prone to errors even still to this day. The polls and the mainstream thought in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and they were wrong. The polls for the 2022 midterms, the mainstream media, right-wing media, TYT, and Secular Talk for the 2022 all predicted a red wave. Yet, the Dems 2022 won overall even though the party that controls the White House generally loses the midterms.
Btw, Biden has been much more successful political in building his party's coalition during his presidency than either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were during each of their presidencies. Obama was partly responsible for the historic 2010, 2014 midterms, and for not playing hardball enough to really try to warn the American people about a possible Trump presidency.
Hillary Clinton also didn't do enough to help build and unite the Democratic coalition. Although, it didn't really matter if someone else besides Hillary was the Democratic nominee instead back then. The main overarching reason the Dems lost to Trump back then was because too many people in the country felt like Obama and his whole party let the country down along with the fact that Hillary Clinton was not an exceptionally inspirational candidate. The 13 keys, which predicted a Trump win, explains all of this in a sensible and easy to understand manner.
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2 hours ago, Raze said:No, his approval was 70% prior to the 1948 election.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/harry-s-truman-public-approval
Polls actually overestimated how well Biden would do in 2020.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020
The polling average slightly underestimated Republicans in 2022
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
I don’t understand what polls were off in 2023 and 2024 as the election hasn’t happened yet
No, his approval rating was about the same as Biden's was before he won the 1948 presidential. You read that gallup poll wrong. It was after Truman began his second term as president that his approval rating averages went back up to around 70%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Polls have no been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really overestimated Trump and his party in 2020.
In the 1988 presidential election, Dukakis, the Democratic nominee was ahead of HW Bush by about 17 points on average until late August when the polls began to gradually switch in favor of HW Bush. Ultimately, Bush won that election in a 400+ electoral vote landslide. According to the article on Michael Dukakis 1988 presidential campaign on wikipedia:
"A poll conducted on July 21 and 22 of 1988 found that Dukakis had expanded the size of his lead over Bush to 17 points, with 55% of voters surveyed saying they would prefer Dukakis to win, compared to 38% for Bush.[30] His lead soon began to shrink, however. For example, on July 30, Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration's handling of ethical issues,[31] to which Ronald Reagan himself responded by describing Dukakis as an "invalid", after which his poll numbers dropped by 5 points overnight.[7] By August 11, Dukakis' lead over Bush had shrunk to 7 points,[32] and by August 24, Bush had gained a 4-point lead over Dukakis. Of the dramatic shift in Dukakis' poll numbers, Mervin Field said, "I have never seen anything like this, this kind of swing in favorability ratings, ever since I have seen polls, going back to 1936."[33] Later that year, after the second Bush-Dukakis debate occurred on October 13, Dukakis' numbers dropped by 7 points that night, largely due to his response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone if they raped and murdered his wife, Kitty Dukakis, being perceived as emotionless by voters (although others considered the question inherently unfair).[34][35]"
Again, polls have always been off in many different ways for a very long time. Even top political scientists and historians have talked in length about this:
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2 minutes ago, Raze said:He proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights that 2000 was a stolen election because Gore really won Florida, but corrupt conservatives on SCOTUS didn't allow for a true recount of all of the votes in Florida. Lichtman and other experts besides hime proved that they were a lot more that weren't fairly account for.
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17 minutes ago, Raze said:The Keys are too subjective, you can just contort the argument to say they fulfill whoever wins or loses.
They aren't subjective. They are based on empirical data, real US political history, and objective expertise. Read his book carefully and follow his Youtube channel.
Do you have a 100% successful track record of understanding and predicting presidential elections like he does? Are you even a top expert on US History and US politics?
Lichtman does say that Trump having been the very first former president and very first presidential nominee from a major party to be a convicted felon and many timed indicted criminal could "blow up the keys" and not foresee that Trump will lose, regardless of what the keys predict. Though we really have to see how that plays out.
However, Cenk is dead wrong about BIden having no chance to win and he's mistaken that someone like Shapiro, Newsom, Whitmer, or Beshear can come in riding on a white horse to "save the Democratic party" and "save our country" from losing in 2024 like some kind of superhero.
No governor, no Senator, no Cabinet member in the Biden administration, no Dem Congressperson, no popular liberal/progressive celebrity, no angel, and no god from the sky is going to come save us from Trump. Just like how no one in the law enforcement and no one in the military is going to save us from Trump either.
The choice is either standing united behind Biden or standing united behind Harris to defeat Trump and MAGA Trump. That's it!
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6 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:Don't care.
2024 is unique.
The Key factors or the fundamental factors for every presidential election in US history since Republicans vs. Democrats first competed against each other for political power in 1860 have always been the same.
Let's see what happens when he makes his final prediction in mid to late August for 2024. I bet that he will be right again.
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8 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:Cenk is right. Blindly following these "keys" is foolish. 2024 is a unique situation.
You know, they've said about every presidential election. Lichtman has always been told during every presidential election cycle that "you gotta change your keys because we have for the first time ever a black presidential nominee..." or "we have a woman presidential nominee for the first time ever" or "we've never had someone as crazy as Trump in 2016..." or "this is the first presidential election where we've had massive amount of social media being involved in this election..."
His 13 keys system have worked for every presidential election since 1860 and he has predicted every presidential since 1984 which was before many of us were born. Read his book.
Also, Biden's age related issue is the same as Reagan's was in 1980 and 1984. Plus, Trump's conviction arguably cancels out Biden's age related issue if not more.
Polls months or even a few weeks out from an election are in accurate.
At the end of the day, US History has always shown how Americans have always voted in presidential elections. That may really change if the whole election system changes one day.
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It looks like a majority of the people in the comments section thought Lichtman won.
Cenk keeps making too many highly exaggerated negative takes on Biden and the Democrats. I used to think he was more reasonable, but now I see that he has become another toxic political commentator, whose contributing to the divisions in our country.
Moreover, he always comes up with many of these long-shot ideas he has for fixing the whole system and winning elections. His ideas haven't ever worked and won't ever work for the foreseeable.
He wasted so much time and money by doing his own presidential run which accomplished nothing at all.
He is smart and has made a lot of good political analyses, but at the end of the day, Cenk is just another obnoxious pundit.
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Cenk really gets put in his place by Professor Lichtman:
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1 hour ago, Raze said:No President with a job approval as low as Biden has ever won an election
Harry Truman did in 1948. Every pollster back then mistakenly thought he would lose to his GOP opponent Dewey. Truman was also about as unpopular as Biden has been.
The polls have very likely underestimated Biden’s true strength. Do you understand that the polls have greatly underestimated the strength of virtually every Democratic candidate since 2022? The polls were off in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Even pollsters and pundits have conceded that polling has been a crisis!
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35 minutes ago, Hatfort said:Yes he can, Newsom has been a man of the team. All he has been doing, and would have to continue if taken the torch, is praising Biden's term and his accomplishments, which there are. He in fact speaks in behalf of Biden better than Biden himself, I watched his debate with DeSantis. He is not perceived as a rival of Biden, because he really is not.
Biden is too old, he has declined more than expected, that's the reality. I was with Bernie back when they had their primaries, but Biden won, so got in his boat against a greater evil. I was still going to support him now, I thought Cenk Uygur was wrong when he was asking for a replacement, I thought Biden could give the race. But that illusion fell in the debate, it was really a before-and-after moment, we've seen the king without clothes, or whatever that phrase is. Ideally, he would have retired with grace and let the primaries happen, but that train is gone. It's in moments of crisis when the Democratic party, or anyone, have to prove they can come up with solutions.
But it’s not his accomplishments. Most people don’t know who is and don’t trust him outside of California to run the presidency.
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2 hours ago, Raze said:Why is Biden losing in most polls then?
Poll more than 1 month out from an election are prone to many errors and have no predictive value.
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4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:There is no incumbency advantage now. Dems are best off with a clean slate to wash out the bad taste of inflation and Gaza.
That's absolutely not true at all.
Biden's Incumbency still is a major electoral advantage for him even in this day and age because:
On 6/29/2024 at 0:28 PM, Hardkill said:- Bully pulpit: has a unique platform to shape the narrative, set the agenda, and dominate the media cycle like an incumbent president can.
- Executive experience: Able to claim exceptional executive experience and credibility by already having been the POTUS.
- Natural constituency: Incumbent presidents have a natural constituency within their own party, which can provide a base of support
- Top name recognition: The incumbent POTUS automatically has such exceptional name recognition throughout ALL of the country that is impossible for any non-incumbent presidential candidate to match.
- Momentum and aura of inevitability: Incumbent presidents get to claim credit for all of their accomplishments and momentum, which can be very, very difficult for a non-incumbent to match.
- Ownership of the incumbent's legacy: While Trump has at times successfully leveraged his outsider status and has had a certain kind of anti-establishment appeal, voters even still in this day and age prefer the familiarity and stability of an incumbent over the uncertainty of an outsider.
- Unrivaled fundraising ability: Incumbents can tap into established PACs, which provide significant funding and support. The incumbent's party provides established financial support, infrastructure, and donor networks. Incumbents have established relationships with high-dollar donors and bundlers, who can collect and bundle contributions from multiple sources. Incumbents receive contributions from companies and individuals with government contracts or seeking favorable treatment.
To be clear, being the incumbent presidential candidate does not guarantee re-election. If his performance and luck are lacking, then he will lose re-election, exactly like how Trump lost re-election to Biden in 2020. Biden's performance and luck this time around are still looking good now for his electoral prospects and incumbency in his case would help turn his supposed "bleak" prospects into victory for him and his party in power. Look at Truman in 1948, when almost everyone thought back then that he would lose to the non-incumbent GOP candidate, Dewey. Yet, Truman won another presidential term handily because he was the incumbent president and his performance and luck during his first term as president were good.
Biden really is the only one (or Harris if Biden resigns the presidency to her) who run on all of the historic accomplishments he has achieved for the whole country. Someone like Newsom can't claim any credit for any of those accomplishments:
He has presided over very high real GDP growth during his presidency:
Economic well-being: Real GDP growth indicates an increase in the production of goods and services, which leads to:
+ Job creation and lower unemployment
+ Higher incomes and purchasing power
+ Improved standard of living
Economic stability: A growing economy is often associated with:
+ Low inflation or stable prices
+ Increased investment and innovation
+ Reduced risk of economic downturns or recessions
Government revenue: A growing economy generates more tax revenue, enabling the government to:
+ Invest in public services and infrastructure
+ Reduce debt and deficits
+ Implement policies and programs that benefit citizens
International competitiveness: A country with strong real GDP growth may:
+ Attract foreign investment and trade
+ Increase its global influence and competitiveness
+ Enhance its reputation as a stable and prosperous nation the most amount of jobs created compared to any other president in US History and real incomes have grown a lot for most americans.Plus, don't forget that he has become the most pro union president since FDR or Truman in the 40s.
The Federal Reserve, most economist, and business leaders have said that this has been a really good economy. Btw, we are headed for a soft landing! Hardly any economist out there thought that was going to be impossible to achieve!
Our economy has been in the best shape in the world!
According to WSJ article:
According to Paul Krugman in one of his latest articles, "Americans are much more positive about their state or local economy than they are about the national economy. You see this in the Federal Reserve’s survey of household well-being and also in a Wall Street Journal poll of swing states:
Plus, Biden has been the only one who has proven to the public that he defeated Trump. He even has mentioned a number of times how much of a loser Trump is. That projects to the public Biden's aura of being the reigning champion of the country.
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2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:They will once they get a taste of MAGA madness.
I don't worry about Dem unity. They will unite once we get past the open question of Biden. Right now we have an open question with Biden and that's healthy and okay.
If Biden drops out of the race without resigning the presidency to let Harris be president, then the Democrats will lose the invaluable incumbency advantage and cause a really bad shitshow.
All of that will influence many voters to not for whoever becomes the new Democratic nominee on the ticket, because the people will perceive the Dems, who hold the White House, as being a party that is in such disarray that they can't even governing the country well.
That's a big reason why Nixon won the 1968 presidential election and why Reagan won the 1980 presidential and why Trump won in 2016.
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9 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:In the short term MAGA might win.
No, I get that.
but as long as the moderate/conservative leaning Dems and the more liberal/progressive Dems can't ever put aside their differences to unite together as one truly strong party that would have a real shot to end the MAGA madness, then how can they ever defeat them for good?
I am really ashamed of the Democratic party and the level of incompetence they are displaying right now.
Lichtman really was right about how Democrats play whiffle ball, while Republicans know how to play hardball.
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5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:Because Trumpism cannot work. It must fail on first principles. His devilry will fail in the end. It's only a question of how.
No, I get that, but the Democratic party often times can't get it together because the party has too many different interests and a large bloc of moderate/conservative leaning Dems who a lot of times can't along well with the more liberal/progressive Dems.
They are already royally screwing it up for themselves for the 2024 elections with the fighting and major conflicts they have going on with each other right now. They are recreating the same situation that lead them to lose in 2016!
This is exactly what Trump and MAGA wants! In fact, this has always been one of the main reasons the Republican party wins more elections than it should. The GOP, especially Trump, has always know how to exploit this weakness to their advantage.
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7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:Progressives and centrists will fight back and regain power.
How can you count on that when we seen a number of times in US History when it has always been extremely difficult for the Democratic party hold together their entire diverse coalition since approx. the late 1970s?
We saw how the party got divided and weakened in 2016 after Bernie Sanders lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, which contributed to her losing that election.
Even right now, the moderates and the liberals/progressives in the Democratic party are really ruined their chances in 2024 by fighting amongst each other like never before.
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1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:But they comes as a package. You can't just have the capitalism without the wolves.
Tell that to the millions of Africans who die from malaria and live in squalor.
How worried are you about the possibility of stopping massive corporations such as Amazon and Tesla taking over the entire country in a way that is as bad as it was in Gilded Ages, if not much worse, before it becomes too late?
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2 minutes ago, Yimpa said:That’s what the Devil wants you to believe. Beware!
I don't know, man.
We may have no choice.
Look at the history of rebellions and revolutions and protests.
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5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:Puerto Rico is ruined by its bad geography, like many carribean islands.
Huricaines are a bitch for development.
Oh yeah true.
I wish there was a way or technology available to build the infrastructure needed to effectively withstand powerful hurricanes.
However, they also say that many greedy rich people and corporations have greatly deteriorated the economic stability of the country via the horrible insidious neoliberal policies.
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6 minutes ago, Rafael Thundercat said:Yeah, go Colonize there too like was done to Hawaii
Sorry bust is not true that everywhere America touch its paws it bring with it all its sickeness and desacralisation with it?
and please, watch the video and dont gasligthme on this topic. There is a lot of evidence of this trend everywhere.
Just like how America has already ruined Puerto Rico economically. It's very heartbreaking.
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11 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:It just cannot work like that today because there is no geographic boundary between Red and Blue. All major cities are Blue, even in Red states.
Civil War analogies are wrong.
Whatever happens it will be something new and unexpected.
hmm...figures...
Yeah, that's I kinda thought.
Perhaps millions of people will cause a serious revolt against the Capitol, all of the courthouses, and the White House like never before.
in Society, Politics, Government, Environment, Current Events
Posted · Edited by Hardkill
He predicted Reagan's victory in 1984, back when most people thought that Reagan was too old and showed serious signs of Alzheimer's.
Besides, Harris as the VP has always been Biden's backup in case he doesn't make it for another 1, 2, 3, or 4 years. Everyone knows that. Most people in this country would at least rather have Harris be president than some convicted felon psycho egomaniac monster that Trump
I am sorry Leo, but I have to disagree with you on this one. With all due respect you're not a top US historian and you haven't lived nearly as long as he has. Moreover, your track record of prediction elections hasn't been as great as the professor's has been. He also has predicted as many Republicans wins as he has predicted Democratic wins for presidential elections since 1984. Plus, his system and expertise has worked in retrospectively for every presidential election since 1860.
You thought that Ron DeSantis would be a threat to Biden in 2024, and yet he turned out to be such a weak candidate in the 2024 GOP primaries. Lichtman actually could tell a couple months out from the end of his campaign that Desantis had no appeal and that none of the candidates could beat Trump for the GOP nomination.
He predicted that Trump would be impeached during his first term as president and also foresaw Trump getting convicted in the NY election interference case.
Optics and vibes only matter the most in every non-presidential election because most people don't pay attention to any of those races and most people who their state level, local level, or congressional level leaders are. However, everyone in the country knows who the POTUS is and everyone know who the presidential candidates are in the presidential general are by Labor day.
If you think that optics and vibes alone will save Trump this time, then you are sorely mistaken. If presidential elections were solely based on optics and vibes alone, then Trump who ran a much more energetic campaign than Biden in 2020 would've won re-election back then.
Teddy Roosevelt, who was one of the most charismatic presidents in US History lost to Woodrow Wilson, who had much less appealing vibe as a candidate, lost in the 1912 presidential election.
I respectfully ask you have an open-mind about this.