Hardkill

Harry Truman did in 1948. Every pollster back then mistakenly thought he would lose to his GOP opponent Dewey. Truman was also about as unpopular as Biden has been. The polls have very likely underestimated Biden’s true strength. Do you understand that the polls have greatly underestimated the strength of virtually every Democratic candidate since 2022? The polls were off in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Even pollsters and pundits have conceded that polling has been a crisis!

But it’s not his accomplishments. Most people don’t know who is and don’t trust him outside of California to run the presidency.

Poll more than 1 month out from an election are prone to many errors and have no predictive value.

That's absolutely not true at all. Biden's Incumbency still is a major electoral advantage for him even in this day and age because: Biden really is the only one (or Harris if Biden resigns the presidency to her) who run on all of the historic accomplishments he has achieved for the whole country. Someone like Newsom can't claim any credit for any of those accomplishments: He has presided over very high real GDP growth during his presidency: Economic well-being: Real GDP growth indicates an increase in the production of goods and services, which leads to: + Job creation and lower unemployment + Higher incomes and purchasing power + Improved standard of living Economic stability: A growing economy is often associated with: + Low inflation or stable prices + Increased investment and innovation + Reduced risk of economic downturns or recessions Government revenue: A growing economy generates more tax revenue, enabling the government to: + Invest in public services and infrastructure + Reduce debt and deficits + Implement policies and programs that benefit citizens International competitiveness: A country with strong real GDP growth may: + Attract foreign investment and trade + Increase its global influence and competitiveness + Enhance its reputation as a stable and prosperous nation the most amount of jobs created compared to any other president in US History and real incomes have grown a lot for most americans. Plus, don't forget that he has become the most pro union president since FDR or Truman in the 40s. The Federal Reserve, most economist, and business leaders have said that this has been a really good economy. Btw, we are headed for a soft landing! Hardly any economist out there thought that was going to be impossible to achieve! Our economy has been in the best shape in the world! According to WSJ article: According to Paul Krugman in one of his latest articles, "Americans are much more positive about their state or local economy than they are about the national economy. You see this in the Federal Reserve’s survey of household well-being and also in a Wall Street Journal poll of swing states: Plus, Biden has been the only one who has proven to the public that he defeated Trump. He even has mentioned a number of times how much of a loser Trump is. That projects to the public Biden's aura of being the reigning champion of the country.

If Biden drops out of the race without resigning the presidency to let Harris be president, then the Democrats will lose the invaluable incumbency advantage and cause a really bad shitshow. All of that will influence many voters to not for whoever becomes the new Democratic nominee on the ticket, because the people will perceive the Dems, who hold the White House, as being a party that is in such disarray that they can't even governing the country well. That's a big reason why Nixon won the 1968 presidential election and why Reagan won the 1980 presidential and why Trump won in 2016.

No, I get that. but as long as the moderate/conservative leaning Dems and the more liberal/progressive Dems can't ever put aside their differences to unite together as one truly strong party that would have a real shot to end the MAGA madness, then how can they ever defeat them for good? I am really ashamed of the Democratic party and the level of incompetence they are displaying right now. Lichtman really was right about how Democrats play whiffle ball, while Republicans know how to play hardball.

No, I get that, but the Democratic party often times can't get it together because the party has too many different interests and a large bloc of moderate/conservative leaning Dems who a lot of times can't along well with the more liberal/progressive Dems. They are already royally screwing it up for themselves for the 2024 elections with the fighting and major conflicts they have going on with each other right now. They are recreating the same situation that lead them to lose in 2016! This is exactly what Trump and MAGA wants! In fact, this has always been one of the main reasons the Republican party wins more elections than it should. The GOP, especially Trump, has always know how to exploit this weakness to their advantage.

How can you count on that when we seen a number of times in US History when it has always been extremely difficult for the Democratic party hold together their entire diverse coalition since approx. the late 1970s? We saw how the party got divided and weakened in 2016 after Bernie Sanders lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, which contributed to her losing that election. Even right now, the moderates and the liberals/progressives in the Democratic party are really ruined their chances in 2024 by fighting amongst each other like never before.

How worried are you about the possibility of stopping massive corporations such as Amazon and Tesla taking over the entire country in a way that is as bad as it was in Gilded Ages, if not much worse, before it becomes too late?

I don't know, man. We may have no choice. Look at the history of rebellions and revolutions and protests.

Oh yeah true. I wish there was a way or technology available to build the infrastructure needed to effectively withstand powerful hurricanes. However, they also say that many greedy rich people and corporations have greatly deteriorated the economic stability of the country via the horrible insidious neoliberal policies.

Just like how America has already ruined Puerto Rico economically. It's very heartbreaking.

hmm...figures... Yeah, that's I kinda thought. Perhaps millions of people will cause a serious revolt against the Capitol, all of the courthouses, and the White House like never before.

Is another actual Civil War like the one we had in the 1860s now on the table in the future? Could nuclear warfare be a lot more in play?

How would more at least half of the people in the US be able to find a way to successfully overcome the combined unimaginable force of a dictator's use of the most powerful military in the history of the world, the corrupt Supreme Court, corruption of all law enforcement, and the rise in corporate tyranny in our country with a new Trump presidency? Are there any specific historical precedents for this?

Most people perceived Reagan to be too old and too senile to run for another term as president when he ran for re-election in 1984. He had serious signs of Alzheimer's by coming off as really forgetful, and stumbled a lot. He also did terrible in his first debate against his Dem opponent Mondale. Yet, Reagan won re-election in an historic landslide. When FDR was dying and looked very sickly during his re-election run for a 4th presidential term, all of his advisers, many other people close to him, and many other Democrats in his party said urged FDR not to run again. They called him a cripple who was finished. Yet, he too proved them wrong when he won 4th term in another historic landslide.

Oh I see. So, it's because over the past 3 and half years now Trump hasn't been in the political spotlight much and Biden and the Dems greatly reverse so much of the damage Trump caused to people during his term. Biden and his party made historic progressive changes for this country. So, a lot people have forgotten how horrible Trump was as president. Also, you're saying that most Americans either lean conservative or are staunch conservatives, they still aren't as reactionary or aren't as extreme to the right as Trump, MAGA, or racist hate groups are. Now, at the same time, why do most Americans like all of the center-left or left-wing policies that have been implemented throughout US History when most Americans are traditional, selfish, corrupt, and ignorant?

Okay, it's one thing to keep my integrity, but people can't just survive and thrive on morals alone. So, why is that kind of stuff unpopular to most Americans if all of those ideas or policies aligns with the fact that most Americans are tradition-oriented and are ignorant, selfish, and corrupt?

Wait, but why is that kind of stuff unpopular to most Americans if all of those ideas or policies aligns with the fact that most Americans are tradition-oriented and are ignorant, selfish, and corrupt? How can I be the light if I don't have the resources or the manpower or the charisma to fight back?

but why does it matter when about half of the entire country about forgotten about how horrific Trump was in office? Why do so many Americans no longer give a damn about his monstrosity anymore? Even after he's dead most people are going to forget about everything he did and go back to being the ignorant fools that they've always been and elect another radical right-wing authoritarian or disastrous right-wing president.

You know, I am not sure what to totally believe now with all of this countless misinformation and extremely deceptive information out there like never before.

But if Trump gets to effectively become a dictator starting on day one and he will have full command of the most powerful military in the world, the FBI and the law enforcement won't be able to stop him, the Supreme Court will never stop him, and the Dems in Congress who are too feckless and never fight back like hell? Even when Trump passes away and another radical right-wing authoritarian like possibly DeSantis or Vance take his place as the future king of America, who will be able to stop those monsters? Plus, the propaganda of the right-wing media ecosystem is still too strong! Too many Americans don't give a shit about what the hell is going on in our country. Right now, it's extremely difficult for me to see how any of these factors change fast enough to save our country before it's too late if Trump becomes a dictator. Even you said all of this recently yourself. So, what can be done from a practical standpoint in such a dark dystopian scenario?

Unfortunately, yes. Also, the Supreme Court really has let us down by letting a tyrant take charge of the country because all they care about is ruling the country through a theocratic Republican regime.

I thank you for your support. Though, it's very hard for me to see what I can do if not enough people are willing to listen to the right things because too many Americans have are too ignorant and too complacent. Not to mention, how can someone like me effectively cut through all of the noise of terrible misinformation out there in this day and age, particularly when I don't even have resources that a rich person or a successful business has to get out the message? Plus, what if Trump uses his newfound power as president to suppress all dissent?

But you said it before that the right-wing media ecosystem has brainwashed way too many ignorant Americans. That's why the 2020 election was much closer of an election than it should have been. Well, it doesn't matter because debates presidential general election have no predictive value. John Kerry won all of his debates against Bush in 2004, but he lost the election. Hillary won all of her debates against Trump in 2016, but she lost the election. Campaigns in presidential general election also don't really matter either unless it's a truly exceptional charismatic candidate or legendary war hero like Eisenhower. Trump ran a much more energetic campaign than Biden did in 2020, but lost to Biden. William Jennings Bryan in both the 1896 and 1900 presidential elections was exceptionally charismatic and ran an extremely energetic campaign while his GOP opponent McKinley in each of those elections had a lackluster personality and had a front-porch. Bryan still lost both of those elections.