Hardkill

Sorry, I meant the Polls have now been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really underestimated Trump and his party in 2020. Truman still had about the same level of approval rating before he won another term. ask any political scientist or historian about this. THey tell you what I've been telling you. Each election has different scenarios and yet the polls has always been prone to errors even still to this day. The polls and the mainstream thought in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and they were wrong. The polls for the 2022 midterms, the mainstream media, right-wing media, TYT, and Secular Talk for the 2022 all predicted a red wave. Yet, the Dems 2022 won overall even though the party that controls the White House generally loses the midterms. Btw, Biden has been much more successful political in building his party's coalition during his presidency than either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were during each of their presidencies. Obama was partly responsible for the historic 2010, 2014 midterms, and for not playing hardball enough to really try to warn the American people about a possible Trump presidency. Hillary Clinton also didn't do enough to help build and unite the Democratic coalition. Although, it didn't really matter if someone else besides Hillary was the Democratic nominee instead back then. The main overarching reason the Dems lost to Trump back then was because too many people in the country felt like Obama and his whole party let the country down along with the fact that Hillary Clinton was not an exceptionally inspirational candidate. The 13 keys, which predicted a Trump win, explains all of this in a sensible and easy to understand manner.

No, his approval rating was about the same as Biden's was before he won the 1948 presidential. You read that gallup poll wrong. It was after Truman began his second term as president that his approval rating averages went back up to around 70%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Polls have no been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really overestimated Trump and his party in 2020. In the 1988 presidential election, Dukakis, the Democratic nominee was ahead of HW Bush by about 17 points on average until late August when the polls began to gradually switch in favor of HW Bush. Ultimately, Bush won that election in a 400+ electoral vote landslide. According to the article on Michael Dukakis 1988 presidential campaign on wikipedia: "A poll conducted on July 21 and 22 of 1988 found that Dukakis had expanded the size of his lead over Bush to 17 points, with 55% of voters surveyed saying they would prefer Dukakis to win, compared to 38% for Bush.[30] His lead soon began to shrink, however. For example, on July 30, Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration's handling of ethical issues,[31] to which Ronald Reagan himself responded by describing Dukakis as an "invalid", after which his poll numbers dropped by 5 points overnight.[7] By August 11, Dukakis' lead over Bush had shrunk to 7 points,[32] and by August 24, Bush had gained a 4-point lead over Dukakis. Of the dramatic shift in Dukakis' poll numbers, Mervin Field said, "I have never seen anything like this, this kind of swing in favorability ratings, ever since I have seen polls, going back to 1936."[33] Later that year, after the second Bush-Dukakis debate occurred on October 13, Dukakis' numbers dropped by 7 points that night, largely due to his response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone if they raped and murdered his wife, Kitty Dukakis, being perceived as emotionless by voters (although others considered the question inherently unfair).[34][35]" Again, polls have always been off in many different ways for a very long time. Even top political scientists and historians have talked in length about this:

He proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights that 2000 was a stolen election because Gore really won Florida, but corrupt conservatives on SCOTUS didn't allow for a true recount of all of the votes in Florida. Lichtman and other experts besides hime proved that they were a lot more that weren't fairly account for.

They aren't subjective. They are based on empirical data, real US political history, and objective expertise. Read his book carefully and follow his Youtube channel. Do you have a 100% successful track record of understanding and predicting presidential elections like he does? Are you even a top expert on US History and US politics? Lichtman does say that Trump having been the very first former president and very first presidential nominee from a major party to be a convicted felon and many timed indicted criminal could "blow up the keys" and not foresee that Trump will lose, regardless of what the keys predict. Though we really have to see how that plays out. However, Cenk is dead wrong about BIden having no chance to win and he's mistaken that someone like Shapiro, Newsom, Whitmer, or Beshear can come in riding on a white horse to "save the Democratic party" and "save our country" from losing in 2024 like some kind of superhero. No governor, no Senator, no Cabinet member in the Biden administration, no Dem Congressperson, no popular liberal/progressive celebrity, no angel, and no god from the sky is going to come save us from Trump. Just like how no one in the law enforcement and no one in the military is going to save us from Trump either. The choice is either standing united behind Biden or standing united behind Harris to defeat Trump and MAGA Trump. That's it!

The Key factors or the fundamental factors for every presidential election in US history since Republicans vs. Democrats first competed against each other for political power in 1860 have always been the same. Let's see what happens when he makes his final prediction in mid to late August for 2024. I bet that he will be right again.

You know, they've said about every presidential election. Lichtman has always been told during every presidential election cycle that "you gotta change your keys because we have for the first time ever a black presidential nominee..." or "we have a woman presidential nominee for the first time ever" or "we've never had someone as crazy as Trump in 2016..." or "this is the first presidential election where we've had massive amount of social media being involved in this election..." His 13 keys system have worked for every presidential election since 1860 and he has predicted every presidential since 1984 which was before many of us were born. Read his book. Also, Biden's age related issue is the same as Reagan's was in 1980 and 1984. Plus, Trump's conviction arguably cancels out Biden's age related issue if not more. Polls months or even a few weeks out from an election are in accurate. At the end of the day, US History has always shown how Americans have always voted in presidential elections. That may really change if the whole election system changes one day.

It looks like a majority of the people in the comments section thought Lichtman won. Cenk keeps making too many highly exaggerated negative takes on Biden and the Democrats. I used to think he was more reasonable, but now I see that he has become another toxic political commentator, whose contributing to the divisions in our country. Moreover, he always comes up with many of these long-shot ideas he has for fixing the whole system and winning elections. His ideas haven't ever worked and won't ever work for the foreseeable. He wasted so much time and money by doing his own presidential run which accomplished nothing at all. He is smart and has made a lot of good political analyses, but at the end of the day, Cenk is just another obnoxious pundit.

Harry Truman did in 1948. Every pollster back then mistakenly thought he would lose to his GOP opponent Dewey. Truman was also about as unpopular as Biden has been. The polls have very likely underestimated Biden’s true strength. Do you understand that the polls have greatly underestimated the strength of virtually every Democratic candidate since 2022? The polls were off in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Even pollsters and pundits have conceded that polling has been a crisis!

But it’s not his accomplishments. Most people don’t know who is and don’t trust him outside of California to run the presidency.

Poll more than 1 month out from an election are prone to many errors and have no predictive value.

That's absolutely not true at all. Biden's Incumbency still is a major electoral advantage for him even in this day and age because: Biden really is the only one (or Harris if Biden resigns the presidency to her) who run on all of the historic accomplishments he has achieved for the whole country. Someone like Newsom can't claim any credit for any of those accomplishments: He has presided over very high real GDP growth during his presidency: Economic well-being: Real GDP growth indicates an increase in the production of goods and services, which leads to: + Job creation and lower unemployment + Higher incomes and purchasing power + Improved standard of living Economic stability: A growing economy is often associated with: + Low inflation or stable prices + Increased investment and innovation + Reduced risk of economic downturns or recessions Government revenue: A growing economy generates more tax revenue, enabling the government to: + Invest in public services and infrastructure + Reduce debt and deficits + Implement policies and programs that benefit citizens International competitiveness: A country with strong real GDP growth may: + Attract foreign investment and trade + Increase its global influence and competitiveness + Enhance its reputation as a stable and prosperous nation the most amount of jobs created compared to any other president in US History and real incomes have grown a lot for most americans. Plus, don't forget that he has become the most pro union president since FDR or Truman in the 40s. The Federal Reserve, most economist, and business leaders have said that this has been a really good economy. Btw, we are headed for a soft landing! Hardly any economist out there thought that was going to be impossible to achieve! Our economy has been in the best shape in the world! According to WSJ article: According to Paul Krugman in one of his latest articles, "Americans are much more positive about their state or local economy than they are about the national economy. You see this in the Federal Reserve’s survey of household well-being and also in a Wall Street Journal poll of swing states: Plus, Biden has been the only one who has proven to the public that he defeated Trump. He even has mentioned a number of times how much of a loser Trump is. That projects to the public Biden's aura of being the reigning champion of the country.

If Biden drops out of the race without resigning the presidency to let Harris be president, then the Democrats will lose the invaluable incumbency advantage and cause a really bad shitshow. All of that will influence many voters to not for whoever becomes the new Democratic nominee on the ticket, because the people will perceive the Dems, who hold the White House, as being a party that is in such disarray that they can't even governing the country well. That's a big reason why Nixon won the 1968 presidential election and why Reagan won the 1980 presidential and why Trump won in 2016.

No, I get that. but as long as the moderate/conservative leaning Dems and the more liberal/progressive Dems can't ever put aside their differences to unite together as one truly strong party that would have a real shot to end the MAGA madness, then how can they ever defeat them for good? I am really ashamed of the Democratic party and the level of incompetence they are displaying right now. Lichtman really was right about how Democrats play whiffle ball, while Republicans know how to play hardball.

No, I get that, but the Democratic party often times can't get it together because the party has too many different interests and a large bloc of moderate/conservative leaning Dems who a lot of times can't along well with the more liberal/progressive Dems. They are already royally screwing it up for themselves for the 2024 elections with the fighting and major conflicts they have going on with each other right now. They are recreating the same situation that lead them to lose in 2016! This is exactly what Trump and MAGA wants! In fact, this has always been one of the main reasons the Republican party wins more elections than it should. The GOP, especially Trump, has always know how to exploit this weakness to their advantage.

How can you count on that when we seen a number of times in US History when it has always been extremely difficult for the Democratic party hold together their entire diverse coalition since approx. the late 1970s? We saw how the party got divided and weakened in 2016 after Bernie Sanders lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, which contributed to her losing that election. Even right now, the moderates and the liberals/progressives in the Democratic party are really ruined their chances in 2024 by fighting amongst each other like never before.

How worried are you about the possibility of stopping massive corporations such as Amazon and Tesla taking over the entire country in a way that is as bad as it was in Gilded Ages, if not much worse, before it becomes too late?

I don't know, man. We may have no choice. Look at the history of rebellions and revolutions and protests.

Oh yeah true. I wish there was a way or technology available to build the infrastructure needed to effectively withstand powerful hurricanes. However, they also say that many greedy rich people and corporations have greatly deteriorated the economic stability of the country via the horrible insidious neoliberal policies.

Just like how America has already ruined Puerto Rico economically. It's very heartbreaking.

hmm...figures... Yeah, that's I kinda thought. Perhaps millions of people will cause a serious revolt against the Capitol, all of the courthouses, and the White House like never before.

Is another actual Civil War like the one we had in the 1860s now on the table in the future? Could nuclear warfare be a lot more in play?

How would more at least half of the people in the US be able to find a way to successfully overcome the combined unimaginable force of a dictator's use of the most powerful military in the history of the world, the corrupt Supreme Court, corruption of all law enforcement, and the rise in corporate tyranny in our country with a new Trump presidency? Are there any specific historical precedents for this?

Most people perceived Reagan to be too old and too senile to run for another term as president when he ran for re-election in 1984. He had serious signs of Alzheimer's by coming off as really forgetful, and stumbled a lot. He also did terrible in his first debate against his Dem opponent Mondale. Yet, Reagan won re-election in an historic landslide. When FDR was dying and looked very sickly during his re-election run for a 4th presidential term, all of his advisers, many other people close to him, and many other Democrats in his party said urged FDR not to run again. They called him a cripple who was finished. Yet, he too proved them wrong when he won 4th term in another historic landslide.

Oh I see. So, it's because over the past 3 and half years now Trump hasn't been in the political spotlight much and Biden and the Dems greatly reverse so much of the damage Trump caused to people during his term. Biden and his party made historic progressive changes for this country. So, a lot people have forgotten how horrible Trump was as president. Also, you're saying that most Americans either lean conservative or are staunch conservatives, they still aren't as reactionary or aren't as extreme to the right as Trump, MAGA, or racist hate groups are. Now, at the same time, why do most Americans like all of the center-left or left-wing policies that have been implemented throughout US History when most Americans are traditional, selfish, corrupt, and ignorant?

Okay, it's one thing to keep my integrity, but people can't just survive and thrive on morals alone. So, why is that kind of stuff unpopular to most Americans if all of those ideas or policies aligns with the fact that most Americans are tradition-oriented and are ignorant, selfish, and corrupt?