Hardkill

Yeah, I do believe that Cenk's political stances aren't far left. Marxism is indeed too far to the left. But does Cenk have to come off as a blowhard who sounds so extreme a lot of times?

Btw, he claimed in that video that he considers himself to be center-left. He also said in an interview he did with PBD that he’s a mainstream progressive and doesn’t agree with radical leftists who are for open borders, defunding the police, obsession with woke terms, toxic left-wing culture war messages, etc. Do you buy that?

what do you believe TYT has accomplished? Do you think that they have been winning in the messaging war against MAGA, the corrupt conservatives, and corrupt neoliberal Democrats?

Age and wrinkles: The 13 keys system worked in 1980 when Reagan won that election at the age of 69 years, which back then became the record for the oldest elected US president ever. It worked again in 1984 when broke the record for the oldest elected president again after winning re-election in a truly historic landslide at the age of 73 years, despite serious concerns about his memory and the fact that most people back then thought he was too old to be president again. The 13 keys system worked again in 2016, when Trump broke the record for being back then the oldest elected president at age 70. It worked again in 2020, when Biden broke the record for the oldest elected US president ever at the age of 77 and got inaugurated into office at the age of 78 years. Before he won the election, numerous people around the country were of coures very worried about Biden's age and mental faculties. When Biden turns 82 year old in a couple of months, he will undoubtedly be the very first octogenarian sitting president in US History. Skin Color: The keys worked for 2008 when Obama became the very first African-American ever in US History to be elected president. They worked again in 2012 when he became the very first African-American ever to be re-elected president. Body Shape: The keys worked in 1908 when Taft became the most obese and the most rotund man to be elected president ever in US History. He was 5 feet 11 inches (1.80 m) tall and his weight was between 325 pounds (147 kg) and 280 pounds (130 kg) toward the end of his presidency. Lincoln, was in appearance arguably the lankiest US president ever. Coolidge was the president with the lowest recorded weight not just since 1860, he held the distinction of being the lightest US President ever at 148 lbs. Height: The keys worked in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison became the shortest person since 1860 to be elected president at 5'6". James Madison was actually the shortest president ever in US History at 5'4" during the early 1800s. Abe Lincoln was the tallest elected president not just since 1860 but the tallest elected US president ever. Religion: The keys certainly worked in 1960, when JFK jr. became the very first Catholic ever elected US president. Biden became the 2nd Catholic in US history to be elected president.

True. However, Andrew Johnson lost the Democratic nomination for president in the 1868 Democratic Convention. So, he couldn't run for another term as president. Moreover, even though Johnson was a Democratic president, the Republican party was still technically the incumbent party holding the White House during Johnson's presidency.

Yeah, even Lichtman himself has conceded that it's absolutely possible that his model could stop working one day. He even has said that if certain major fundamental changes were made to our country's election system such as abolishing the electoral college or something like the implementation of ranked choice voting nationwide for all elections then the 13 keys system could very well be obsolete or made need to be significantly modified in some way. One way the keys might not work anymore is if at some point in the future the major political parties, the Democratic party and the Republican party were dissolved and replaced by brand new major political parties. That's one reason why Lichtman decided not to have his system go back to any time in America before 1860. The Republican party was originally founded in 1854 and even then it still wasn't developed enough yet as a truly major opposing party that would be able to truly compete with the Democratic party in anyway in the country until 1860, the year that Abraham Lincoln was first elected president. Another way that the 13 keys might become useless is if there are no battleground or swing states anymore in the electoral college. In such a scenario, it would be very obvious as to which party was going to win the presidency because without any possible battleground or swing states then it would only be a matter of which party holds all of the safe states that altogether total up to 270 or more electoral votes. Then again, if either such scenarios that I just mentioned above where to happen in the future, that might actually lead to both parties, especially the GOP, to be forced to go back more to the center or become much more similar to each other nationally in order to be competitive again.

Democrats tried using the advice of these same kind of elite political consultants gave during the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s for "winning" high profile races. Yet, how has that been working out for the Democratic party?

Jonathan V. Last's arguments against the keys were very weak and unconvincing. He doesn't understand or know that the key are not as subjective as he thinks. He also doesn't seem know or understand US political history well. Also, he and the other guy he was talking to in the vid digressed into talking about other stuff that Lichtman has done in his life that has nothing do with the keys. At the end of the day, guys like Last and other in the Bulwark are just a bunch of hucksters from the failed political consultant class who have been notoriously for getting so many things wrong in the past just like virtually every pollster, pundit, the political consultants, and advertising and media strategist out there have been terribly wrong in the past. In fact, they've caused Democrats to lose way more elections to lose than they should be. Yet, they still keep making fly by the seat of their pants opinions on all kind of election cycles because punditry, polling, campaign consultant, and advertising and media strategizing have all become part of a big businesses for making money. Hence, some have called this the political industrial complex.

Yes. That's a good idea. That's how my dad has been making for our family for many years now. You have to be a smart, knowledgeable, disciplined, and methodical buy-and-hold investor like Warren Buffett has been all of his life. Steer clear from fast trading, crypto, and questionable tech stocks. Only do fundamental trading, which involves choosing stocks that you clearly see have solid prospects for long-term growth. Btw, even though a lot of stocks are overvalued, the stock market isn't so inflated to the degree that it was during dot.com bubble in the late 1990s to 2001.

Wait, couldn't you have just hold on to some good stocks like Procter and Gamble?

The Fed is extremely likely to cut interest rates this month. The question is by how much.

No, there were several months of net job losses per month from January 2008 and through the election year. Plus, the first quarter of 2008 had a negative GDP. Also, a number of top independent economists by around 2007 December had already predicted that it was clear at that point that there would be a financial crisis around 2008. They knew that something was terribly wrong with the economy, but of course Bush and the Republicans ignored it until it was too late. Not to mention that the Fed which was run by that libertarian Republican Alan Greenspan during the first 6 years of Bush's presidency, was too hands off with the matter. I mean anything is possible, but I’ve been following many of the top independent economists out there, top executive bankers, and the Fed. None of them see any truly serious warning signs now of the economy crashing on the horizon. Also, the US economy is still creating a decent amount of jobs per month. Now, it’s more possible that we could have a recession next year if the Fed doesn’t act quickly enough with lowering the interest rates.

Lichtman has always been told since 1984 that you "gotta change your keys" because "we have a black man for the first time in US History running as a major party nominee in 2008 or because we now have the rise of the cable tv and talk radio in the late 1900s/early 2000s or because we have the rise of the internet and social media since the 2010s and so on and so forth. Additionally, he never said that he is predicting that Harris will win by a landslide. He only predicts the winner of the electoral college. Of course he has said that he's not so arrogant to say that his election model can never been wrong. However, his model has proven to work. I don't see how the economy will crash before the election, especially given that there are now only less than two months left before the election? You predicted that Trump would lose the 2020 presidential election many months before that election. Also, what about the fact that Trump has caused himself and his party to lose in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023? How do you know for certain that this election will be very close? How do you know that you may not be overestimating Trump this time? Btw, we gotta stop trusting the pollsters, pundits, and the campaign handlers as being the most right on elections. The vasty majority of them have a had terrible track record of understanding and foreseeing elections.

So is Trump and yet most people didn't think or realize that he would become president in 2016. Again, you don't know for certain how electable or appealing a candidate until they have tried their hand in the campaign trail for the primaries and the general election.

Liz Cheney has now endorsed Harris: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/video/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-endorsement-digvid So, has James McCain, the son of the late GOP John McCain. James who is a military veteran like his father was and was a lifelong Republican like his father until he very recently decided to register as a Democrat and support Harris/Walz: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4859950-jimmy-mccain-trump-arlington-harris/

There have been times where I meet a random new girl I've been attracted to at a nightclub or bar and within about the first 5 to 15 minutes of interacting we make out and I rub her breasts and butt. They've never shown any visible signs of discomfort or distress when I get physical with them like that. Sometimes it leads to me getting a phone number from them. Other times, I would continue to make out with them until they leave without seeming upset or uncomfortable with me for whatever reason and then I just never see them again. When does making out or getting sexual with a girl with a girl you just met like I have before come off as being desperate?

This is one big reason why you don't ever know for certain who is the most electable for president or vice-president until each of the candidates have been tested in the white heat of the primaries or the campaign trail. McCain campaign's team in 2008 thought it was a great idea to have Sarah Palin as his running team because she had a certain kind of charisma or appeal, was a governor of a state, and could relate very well to voters in the South and Middle America. Yet, in the end she ultimately turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for McCain.

Hell yeah! Check out my thread:

Man, I can't wait for Walz to annihilate him in the VP debate, just for kicks!

I think Trump is going to be toast. The enthusiasm for Trump isn't what it used to be and Vance turned out to the worst VP pick in US History. Even worst than Sarah Palin. The enthusiasm for Harris and Walz is about as high as the enthusiasm for Obama was in 2008. Plus, the Republican party has become so unpopular, perceived to be incredibly incompetent, and has been terrifying too many people. The Democratic party on the other hand is perceived to be normal, functional, competent, and representative of the true majority of the Americans today. "We're not going back!"

Again, his system has worked for virtually every presidential election since 1860, despite the enormous changes made in our society since that time. Gotta read his book to understand how his system works. I think you will be amazed by it. "Forget the polls, forget the pundits, keep an eye on the big picture" "It's governance, not campaigns that counts in presidential elections." How will you feel if/when he turns out to be right with this election?

This is total nonsense:

Yeah of course! It is totally an incredible sea change! Also, thank goodness the Democrats did the right thing by not having an open convention for choosing another Dem nominee for president and instead uniting strongly behind Harris! Otherwise, they would've probably lost the no-contest key, which would've very likely spelled defeat for them like what happened in 2016. Btw, Michael Moore, who also predicted Trump would win in 2016 and Biden would win 2020, feels really optimistic about Harris/Walz. He also put up pics of various Harris/Walz yard signs that have been made and that we can use ourselves. https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/i-asked-you-delivered-here-are-your

He still hasn't decided yet whether either of the Foreign/Military keys are true or false. Regardless, even if both of those keys turn false, Harris would still be predicted to win because she won't lose more than 5 keys.

Yeah, but conservatives in America, especially those on the far-right, have pushing so hard since the 1980s to eliminate any checks on their right-wing rhetoric, even if it causes mass chaos and confusion for the public. I think that right-wing libertarianism has been the true culprit. Mature liberals and progressives, who are generally smarter and more sophisticated than conservatives and traditionalists, want there to be fair regulations on all information and content from both the left-wing and the right-wing.