Hardkill

Actually, if there is any consolation, the VP has the greatest name recognition compared to every other politician holding an office throughout the whole country, second only to the POTUS.

Well, he now said that we should united Harris even though we lost the incumbency advantage to at least save the no contest key for the party. We now cannot afford to have a blood miserable chaotic open convention for the Dem nomination. If that happens then we will 100% lose like the Dems did in 1968, 1980, and 2016! I really hope you’re right, Leo.

US History has shown that VP candidates have never made any real difference in the electability the of the ticket. A good VP candidate only matters for improving the party’s chances for winning the following presidential election by having a strong heir apparent or consensus nominee for the next presidential election. A great sitting VP only matters if the sitting president dies in office or is forced to resign. In that case, that VP immediately would take over as a truly transformational president like how Teddy Roosevelt took over as president in 1901 after President McKinley was assassinated during that time. A second example was when Truman took over as president after FDR died in office in 1945 and became one of the ten greatest presidents in US History. A third example was LBJ taking over as president and become such a progressive transformational leader for the country after JFK was assassinated in 1963.

They all got what they wanted.

The Devil has won, Trump, Putin, and Orban, have won… We must all brace ourselves for the looming apocalypse.

Allan Litchtman said on Twitter: "Biden has dropped out. But the Democrats could still salvage the contest key if they unite behind Harris!"

An open convention would divide and weaken Harris and the Democrats, which will cause them to lose to Trump and MAGA in 2024! Look what happened in 1968, 1980, and 2016!

Then again, most Americans don't want Trump.

I hope so.....😭 I am very terrified about this being a Hillary Clinton 2.0 situation. I also am very concerned about the potential lawsuits that the Republicans are now threatening to do over this.

Many of those same type of advisors caused the Democrats to lose to Trump and his party in 2016. This is a horrendous disaster!

No, Trump now has a better shot of winning, because the Democrats gave up the incumbency advantage.

I am very heart broken about this! The media, the donors, and many of those centrist/establishment Dems who forced him out are to be blamed for this! Poor Joe Biden! I wish he had at least resigned the presidency in order to keep the incumbency advantage for the Democrats. I really fear that there is no chaotic open convention. Then Harris and the Democrats will lose to Trump!

So, are you able to protest against the government in times of need without getting arrested or punished by the government for it?

So, the leaders of the country you lived in didn't use the military or law enforcement to terrorize its citizens to make sure that the people "got in line" with what the ruler or the ruling class wanted?

Besides Leo, has anyone lived in Hungary or in any other corrupt eastern European country? If you have, then how scary was it living in any of those countries?

The radical right-wing SCOTUS essentially granted him full immunity from all "official acts" done by the president and the terror of project 2025. Corporations have become more powerful and more developed than ever before. The Republicans and the far-right wing leaders in our country have become more sinister, more heartless, more unethical, and more insane than ever before. They are all willing to do whatever it takes to bring our country back to a 19th century ultra-Christian nationalist regime and also allow all corporations and wealthy elite to have the freedom to rape and pillage every worker and every citizen throughout the entire country.

I understand where you're coming from. A lot of people have felt that way before. However, my last post explains a lot about some of the keys that @Raze that raze asked. The keys don't work for elections in other countries because each country's election system is different. However, keys 10 and 11, the no major foreign/military failure and the major foreign/military success keys do involve measuring how successful and how unsuccessful the US government and the president's administration has been with handling military/foreign affairs that occur under the watch of the sitting president. Not only has he predicted 10 elections in a row. He also used the very same keys in the very same way for EVERY presidential election from 1860 to 1980 in retrospect with a 99.99% success rate as well. *1876 was another stolen election. You gotta read the 13 keys book or watch the Lichtman YT channel. You'll find the key to be surprisingly very objective. Also, his book give highly relevant background history for each presidential election since 1860. Plus, studying US History in-depth really helps one understand why and how the people in our country have elected our leaders ever since around 1856, which was the year that all adult white male laymen in the US were granted the right to vote.

Cenk really gets put in his place by Professor Lichtman:

- Even though the Dems won the midterms overall, they still lost more US seats in the US House in 2022, than they had in either 2018 and 2020. All of the US House elections in each midterms best represent whether the majority of people are more inclined to favor Republican control of government. That's just one key. - To get the no-contest key, the incumbent party candidate running for president or the actual incumbent candidate running for re-election has win more than 65% of the votes and delegates in the primaries. Biden won about 87% of the total popular vote and almost all of the delegates by the end of the 2024 Dem primaries. - Yeah, the third party might actually turn against Biden and his party, if RFK jr. gets on enough ballot and polls at least 10% on average. We have to wait and see until mid to late August. - There has always been all kind of protests in certain parts of the country since the beginning of our country. However, in order to turn the social unrest key against the party in power, there has to be such historic widespread unrest to the degree that occurred in 2020 because of the BLM riots, widespread cabin fever from COVID, and Trump's extremely divisive and inflammatory rhetoric during that year. Despite their being some notable protests on the war in Gaza during the late spring and early summer, they've never reached anywhere near the level of social unrest we had in either 1968 over the war in Vietnam and racial riots out in many streets around the country. Plus, the Israeli protests have been petering out. Though Lichtman is still waiting until sometime in August, which is the month when the Dem convention will happen, to make sure that there's no explosion of widespread social unrest before he calls that key 100% good for Biden and his party. - The Scandal key flips against the party holding the white house if the president himself or anybody else within his administration was truly involved in a scandal. According to his book on his system, "Scandals reach the threshold needed to topple key 9 only when there is bipartisan recognition of the problems besetting an administration. The voting public heavily discounts allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the result of partisanship by the opposition party. On several occasions, revelations of wrongdoing became lost in the partisan wrangling of election years." Bill clinton's sex scandal towards the end of his presidency is a prime example of that. Another example, was during the 2nd Truman administration (1949 to 1953) whereas number of government officials who worked for Truman, got busted for being involved a number of scandals. Truman didn't handle these situations well and because he was their boss, Truman was held very responsible for having this happen in his administration under his watch. Both Republicans and Democrats official throughout the whole country totally agreed that Truman should be blamed for all of the corruption that went on in his administration. Hunter Biden doesn't work in Joe Biden's administration and he's also not the one running for president. Hunter has never even been a politician before. Biden's age or supposed health issues is not a crime and it's certainly not an act of corruption. I am getting tired of this ableism and ageism. By your logic, you might as well have said that when first Obama ran for president in 2008, that him being a black presidential nominee was a scandal. You might as well as say that when Hillary Clinton became the official Democratic nominee for president in 2016, that her being a woman presidential nominee was a scandal. - To get either of two charisma/national hero keys, a presidential nominee has to demonstrate such broad exceptional appeal that transcends all parties and reaches across the political spectrum. Trump has a certain kind of charisma. However, he has only ever appealed to the Republican/conservative base. He lost the popular by a lot in 2016 and even much more so in 2020. Moreover, for whatever worth approval ratings have in terms of winning elections, Trump never had approval ratings average of 50% or higher during any point in his presidency. At least Biden started out his presidency with higher than 50% approval rating average. Only Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, JFK, Reagan, and Obama in 2008 won each of the respective charisma keys for each of the presidential elections they ran in. Each of them have higher than 50% approval rating averages at various times during each of their presidencies and each of the won popular vote in each of their presidential elections. Grant and Eisenhower were the only two war presidents since 1860 who won those key based more on them being these once or twice in a century heroic war leaders as top commanders of the whole US military during the Civil War and WWII respectively. Without the incredible leadership of General Grant during the Civil War then Lincoln, the Republican party, and the Union probably would not have won that war and freed all of the slaves. Without the historic leadership of General Eisenhower during the WWII, the US and the rest of the Allies might've very well have lost the war to the Nazis and the Axis Powers.

Approval ratings don't matter. Even Michael Moore who has been a life long political activist and foresaw Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020, says that approval ratings have become worthless, especially in this day and age. Otherwise, the Dems would've lost badly in 2022 midterms under Biden's watch. Besides, Reagan still was considered too old and showed real signs of early stage Alzheimer's at the age of 73 (which was like 83 years old for those days). The mainstream and social media has unfairly dramatized and demonized Biden's age issue, even he has done a terrific job as president. No, again, he predicted the 2000 election correctly and proved to US commissions on Civil Rights how corrupt right-wingers on SCOTUS rigged it for Bush. It was an incredibly close election and it was legitimately not handled fairly by the courts and many ballots were thrown out through voter suppression. Read it up on the official government website online. Furthermore, ever since 2000, the electoral college has increasingly skewed more and more and more unfairly in the favor of GOP presidential nominee winning the electoral college without having to win popular vote. That's why beginning in 2004, Lichtman begin predicting only the winner of the electoral college in 2004 for following presidential election. He didn't predict that Trump would win the popular vote in 2016. He predicted that he would win the electoral college, thereby winning, the presidency back then. You gotta read his whole book and watch his YT channel. He's more than happy to answer any of your question for a small donation fee or joining YT channel membership.

The arguments that Cenk made were not as strong as the professor's. Cenk also comes off as being so arrogant and foolhardy. The professor has even more common sense and understanding about these matters than Cenk does by far. Lichtman's in-depth analysis and understanding about US politics rivals that of John Mearsheimer's analysis on international politics and military affairs.

He predicted Reagan's victory in 1984, back when most people thought that Reagan was too old and showed serious signs of Alzheimer's. Besides, Harris as the VP has always been Biden's backup in case he doesn't make it for another 1, 2, 3, or 4 years. Everyone knows that. Most people in this country would at least rather have Harris be president than some convicted felon psycho egomaniac monster that Trump I am sorry Leo, but I have to disagree with you on this one. With all due respect you're not a top US historian and you haven't lived nearly as long as he has. Moreover, your track record of prediction elections hasn't been as great as the professor's has been. He also has predicted as many Republicans wins as he has predicted Democratic wins for presidential elections since 1984. Plus, his system and expertise has worked in retrospectively for every presidential election since 1860. You thought that Ron DeSantis would be a threat to Biden in 2024, and yet he turned out to be such a weak candidate in the 2024 GOP primaries. Lichtman actually could tell a couple months out from the end of his campaign that Desantis had no appeal and that none of the candidates could beat Trump for the GOP nomination. He predicted that Trump would be impeached during his first term as president and also foresaw Trump getting convicted in the NY election interference case. Optics and vibes only matter the most in every non-presidential election because most people don't pay attention to any of those races and most people who their state level, local level, or congressional level leaders are. However, everyone in the country knows who the POTUS is and everyone know who the presidential candidates are in the presidential general are by Labor day. If you think that optics and vibes alone will save Trump this time, then you are sorely mistaken. If presidential elections were solely based on optics and vibes alone, then Trump who ran a much more energetic campaign than Biden in 2020 would've won re-election back then. Teddy Roosevelt, who was one of the most charismatic presidents in US History lost to Woodrow Wilson, who had much less appealing vibe as a candidate, lost in the 1912 presidential election. I respectfully ask you have an open-mind about this.

I really wish there was a way to mobilize many millions of people to do a civil rights movement against the Supreme Court and the Republicans in Congress like MLK and Malcolm X did in the 50s and 60s. How can political activists ever fight back against MAGA if Trump gains "absolute power"? I am very terrified of our rights and our money being taken away from us by the right-wing. I am already imagining 90+% of the whole country being enslaved in MAGA concentration camps like the way Nazis imprisoned and murdered the Jews, the Polish, and anyone else who stood against their evil regime.

He gave a really bad speech at the RNC. It's wasn't just racist, xenophobic, and divisive as part of his M.O. His speech was not even captivating at all. He sounded he was slurring, had low energy, and sounded more psychotic than he was either in 2016 or 2020. In fact, all of his most recent speeches have shown that he's not as charismatic as he used to be. He now comes off as an mentally unstable old man who's still trying to grab absolute power, and needs to be seriously sent to either a mental institution or a maximum security prison. He's become like that old Mad King in GoT.

Why would the US economy be better under when he totally fucked it up under his watch during his first term as president?