Hardkill

Even though I've been finding TYT to be more and more obnoxious Cenk did make a very important point here in this vid about how conservative media for decades has been working the referee by accusing mainstream media of liberal bias. Moreover, this strategy has successfully led to mainstream outlets giving undue attention to misinformation and conspiracy theories: The Majority Report did a job of pointing out how much Megyn Kelly gaslit her viewers on why Trump lost the Trump debate:

May he rest in peace. He was a uniquely talented actor.

A (former) prosecutor vs a criminal

Can you imagine how much worse he would've done without a muted microphone?

Harris destroyed Trump in that debate!

The Fairness Doctrine used to enforce diverse views point on every news channel and on every political outlet before it got repealed in the late 1980s. It also prevented the emergence of political media echo chambers or epistemic bubbles. I wish the government could somehow bring some version of that back.

Well, this is very depressing. One of my greatest fears is that the people and the government may not be able to stop the rich and big corporations from taking over our entire country before it's too late. I mean I don't think that's going to happen, but the possibility of that happening just went up a lot in my mind now.

Campaign finance reform has been a mainstream issue for decades, with various efforts and proposals aimed at addressing the influence of money in politics. Yet, I don't see any real progress having been made on this issue at all, even after Bernie Sanders and the progressive movement began to rise to prominence in 2016. Also, what happened to Wolf-PAC?

So, then what has been the point of Wolf-Pac and all of this big talk about how we need to get money out politics?

To be clear, he didn't say back then that Biden would absolutely win. He said that a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose if he stayed in the race and that Biden staying in the race would've guaranteed Democrats both party unity advantage and incumbency advantage. He also was very worried that Democrats would end up making the same mistake they made in 2016, whereby they had no incumbency advantage and lost the no-contest key because of how Bernie Sanders bloody fight with Hillary Clinton weakened and divided the Democratic party. Luckily, the Democrats learned from that mistake by uniting strongly behind Harris. Also, what about the fact that Cenk wrongly predicted in 2020 that Bernie would win the Democratic nomination? What about the fact that he and Ana also wrongly predicted that the Democrats would be annihilated in the 2022 midterms just a few weeks out? Here is Cenk going off on Election Day for the 2022 midterm, yelling about how the Dems totally blew it and ruined their chances in the midterms:

The 2000 presidential election was widely disputed. Lichtman, in fact, proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights in his report that racial voter suppression in Florida, notably by officials such as Governor Jeb Bush at the time, impacted the outcome. Additionally, it's important to remember that the controversial decision by the Supreme Court prevented a complete recount, which would have shown Al Gore winning Florida by a thin margin. https://www.usccr.gov/files/pubs/vote2000/report/appendix/app10.htm You know, Lichtman has been frequently asked by international observers whether his system's applicability extends beyond the US. Unfortunately, he says that his system is not readily applicable in other representative democracies. This is due to differences in election systems and each country's unique political history, which diverge significantly from that of the US. I mean, It's definitely possible to tweak Lichtman's 13 keys system to work for other Western countries. For example, if you want it to work in the UK, you could get some top UK history and political science experts to modify it in a way that would accurately predict the outcomes of every UK parliamentary general election.

A lot of undecided voters these days seem to be very disappointed by the fact that candidates these days talk less about policy and substance than they used to.

What do you think about members of the squad like Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush having lost their seats in Congress to more moderate Democrats? You think this is a sign that progressivism has been losing some of its steam?

Okay, got it. Thanks!

Yeah, I kinda thought that. So, what you’be been saying throughout this entire thread is that there are many degrees of progressivism or leftism. On a scale from least to most left-wing/progressive and from most pragmatic to most idealistic: Pod Save America, BTC, More perfect Union, Meidas Touch, Destiny, IRI, PoliticsGirl, and others like them are the least left-wing or the most pragmatic group of progressives. TYT, Secular Talk, Majority Report, the Humanist Report, Krystal Ball, Vaush, Michael Moore, and others like them are more left-wing and less pragmatic than the above first group. Hasan, Jill Stein, Cornel West, Rashida Tlaib, that InfraHaz guy, communists/socialists, and others like them are the most left-wing and the least pragmatic group of left-wingers.

Alright, well I hope so. I just wish that they were less hyperbolic, sounded more hopeful, and were more pragmatic, like Pod Save America, BTC, More Perfect Union, or Meidas Touch.

Well, do you think that TYT has been helping progressives/liberals and Democrats win the messaging war against MAGA, the corrupt conservatives, and corrupt neoliberal Democrats?

Yeah, I do believe that Cenk's political stances aren't far left. Marxism is indeed too far to the left. But does Cenk have to come off as a blowhard who sounds so extreme a lot of times?

Btw, he claimed in that video that he considers himself to be center-left. He also said in an interview he did with PBD that he’s a mainstream progressive and doesn’t agree with radical leftists who are for open borders, defunding the police, obsession with woke terms, toxic left-wing culture war messages, etc. Do you buy that?

what do you believe TYT has accomplished? Do you think that they have been winning in the messaging war against MAGA, the corrupt conservatives, and corrupt neoliberal Democrats?

Age and wrinkles: The 13 keys system worked in 1980 when Reagan won that election at the age of 69 years, which back then became the record for the oldest elected US president ever. It worked again in 1984 when broke the record for the oldest elected president again after winning re-election in a truly historic landslide at the age of 73 years, despite serious concerns about his memory and the fact that most people back then thought he was too old to be president again. The 13 keys system worked again in 2016, when Trump broke the record for being back then the oldest elected president at age 70. It worked again in 2020, when Biden broke the record for the oldest elected US president ever at the age of 77 and got inaugurated into office at the age of 78 years. Before he won the election, numerous people around the country were of coures very worried about Biden's age and mental faculties. When Biden turns 82 year old in a couple of months, he will undoubtedly be the very first octogenarian sitting president in US History. Skin Color: The keys worked for 2008 when Obama became the very first African-American ever in US History to be elected president. They worked again in 2012 when he became the very first African-American ever to be re-elected president. Body Shape: The keys worked in 1908 when Taft became the most obese and the most rotund man to be elected president ever in US History. He was 5 feet 11 inches (1.80 m) tall and his weight was between 325 pounds (147 kg) and 280 pounds (130 kg) toward the end of his presidency. Lincoln, was in appearance arguably the lankiest US president ever. Coolidge was the president with the lowest recorded weight not just since 1860, he held the distinction of being the lightest US President ever at 148 lbs. Height: The keys worked in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison became the shortest person since 1860 to be elected president at 5'6". James Madison was actually the shortest president ever in US History at 5'4" during the early 1800s. Abe Lincoln was the tallest elected president not just since 1860 but the tallest elected US president ever. Religion: The keys certainly worked in 1960, when JFK jr. became the very first Catholic ever elected US president. Biden became the 2nd Catholic in US history to be elected president.

True. However, Andrew Johnson lost the Democratic nomination for president in the 1868 Democratic Convention. So, he couldn't run for another term as president. Moreover, even though Johnson was a Democratic president, the Republican party was still technically the incumbent party holding the White House during Johnson's presidency.

Yeah, even Lichtman himself has conceded that it's absolutely possible that his model could stop working one day. He even has said that if certain major fundamental changes were made to our country's election system such as abolishing the electoral college or something like the implementation of ranked choice voting nationwide for all elections then the 13 keys system could very well be obsolete or made need to be significantly modified in some way. One way the keys might not work anymore is if at some point in the future the major political parties, the Democratic party and the Republican party were dissolved and replaced by brand new major political parties. That's one reason why Lichtman decided not to have his system go back to any time in America before 1860. The Republican party was originally founded in 1854 and even then it still wasn't developed enough yet as a truly major opposing party that would be able to truly compete with the Democratic party in anyway in the country until 1860, the year that Abraham Lincoln was first elected president. Another way that the 13 keys might become useless is if there are no battleground or swing states anymore in the electoral college. In such a scenario, it would be very obvious as to which party was going to win the presidency because without any possible battleground or swing states then it would only be a matter of which party holds all of the safe states that altogether total up to 270 or more electoral votes. Then again, if either such scenarios that I just mentioned above where to happen in the future, that might actually lead to both parties, especially the GOP, to be forced to go back more to the center or become much more similar to each other nationally in order to be competitive again.

Democrats tried using the advice of these same kind of elite political consultants gave during the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s for "winning" high profile races. Yet, how has that been working out for the Democratic party?

Jonathan V. Last's arguments against the keys were very weak and unconvincing. He doesn't understand or know that the key are not as subjective as he thinks. He also doesn't seem know or understand US political history well. Also, he and the other guy he was talking to in the vid digressed into talking about other stuff that Lichtman has done in his life that has nothing do with the keys. At the end of the day, guys like Last and other in the Bulwark are just a bunch of hucksters from the failed political consultant class who have been notoriously for getting so many things wrong in the past just like virtually every pollster, pundit, the political consultants, and advertising and media strategist out there have been terribly wrong in the past. In fact, they've caused Democrats to lose way more elections to lose than they should be. Yet, they still keep making fly by the seat of their pants opinions on all kind of election cycles because punditry, polling, campaign consultant, and advertising and media strategizing have all become part of a big businesses for making money. Hence, some have called this the political industrial complex.