Ferdi Le

Hey Folks, I recently checked out the odds of the 2020 election and apparantly you can double your money with betting on a democratic victory. I think a democratic victory is more likely than that and hence think it might be a bett worth taking. Some of you probably have to modus operandi of thinking that betting is low-consicousness. I contemplated this as well, but concluded: Why not make a buck out of Trump being defeated in 2020? I can think of worse things to do quite frankly. The odds of Republicans winning is 1,7. So they see a democratic victory at less than 50%. I think that is a underestimation and would say they carry 2020 with a probability of 70%. Remember, Trumps won some rust belt states with only a couple thousand votes. What do you think?

Jesus I dont understand this obsession with Amazon FBA. Why dont you build a semiconductor company? Or a health insurance provider? Or a car supplier? Or some chemical engineering company? All I am saying is that building an Amazon FBA business is not a great, innovative idea and being successful in that is not particularly easier than being successful in any other field. It might even be harder because so many people do it. Try to find a job that pays you 20$/h and then strategically build your skill set. But dont waste anymore time now with trying to build some business in the body (and PLEASE dont waste money on some online products that teach you to do amazon FBA)

My point was that winning Wisconsin was not necessarily Trumps strength but the Democrats weakness. Of course there will always be some 3rd party voters, but Steins votes quintupled from 2012 to 2016, which means that Democrats did lose some of their voters to the Green Party and it was not just the regular Green Turnout. Which underlies my initial point that Trump win in Wisconsin was due to a combination of strategic blunders from the democrats and if they correct them, they will be able to carry those states again.

@Bno Tulsi would be amazing. I hope he remembers that she supported him 2016. Yang being in the cabinet would be tremendous as well. He is (mainly) a one issue candidate and if he could make UBI without having to meet Putin or playing this entire Commander in Chief BS, would be a much better use of his time

@Bno You think Bernie might take Yang as running mate? I really like Yang but he would need some serious momentum to actually have a shot. His support is steady and solid, but no serious growth.

Yes you are probably right. I just hope the democrats dont make such fallacies again. They have solid candidates now. I think Bernie, Yang, Warren and Buttigie would all have a solid victory. We will see what happens

Johnsons effect is not nearly as certain as Jill Steins. ALL of Stein voters would have voted for Democrats. The same can not be argued for Johnson. I quickly looked uo a study in which they say he took votes from both parties equally. I by no means am an expert on the rust belt. But considering that Democrats made a MAJOR STRATEGIC BLUNDER and Trump still won by only a couple thounsand votes, makes it just extremely unlikely that it is going to happen again.

Clinton would have EASILY carried Michigan with Stein votes. Clinton would have had 253 Electorals Votes with just a couple thousand votes more. Trump victory is a bloody miracle.

Clinton would have carried Wisconsin with Steins votes. I would argue that the Libertarian Votes are equally from Trump and Clinton. Remember, Clinton was largely unpopular.

@Arcangelo I mean can you comprehend that Hillary did not visit Wisconsin at all after the convention!!!?? This is basically one of the 5 states that decided the election! Trump can get 100% in Alabama, Montana and Wyoming. This is not of any impotance. The democarts had a terrible candidate and completely negelected the states that ultimately decided the election. How in the world do you think Trump will pull this of again? He only won those states with a slight margin. Without Gill Stein, Clinton would have won those without actually going there. Now they will invest heavily AND will have a better candidate AND the green party wont sabotage as much (because removing Trump is in everyones interest). The more I think about it, the more unrealistic #Trump2020 seems

Keep in mind that Trump fooled them with massive luck. Imagine a slight increase in voter turnout for democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc. Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once!! (after the democrats convention). Do you really think they a doing the same strategic blunder again? Give me a break.... Trump in 2016 is like a hacker who fooled a security system. But now 4 years later, when they fixed the security gap and he just tries the same thing again, he is merely going to look like a fool. Most Americans are sick and tired of him. Just see how he cherrypicks every poll that favors him. Rasmussen sometimes has polls that give him a slight lead, he immediatelly tweets them. 2 days later, they see unfavorability up 6% and he ignores it. Most people see through this. I think he could even lose Texas and Florida or Arizona if the democrats play their cards right. The only real danger is Bloomberg running as a third party, Biden being nominated and exposed because of this Hunter story or Trumps massive financial advantge. But then again, the bookmakers see democrats chances at below 45%, which I think is delusional.

Yes of course. But typical orange does not have multiple Psychedelic Experiences. He even atended ayahuasca retreats. He must have faced his devilry in those trips, or am I missing something? Then again, maybe I am doing the same....

Watching impeachment unfold is like watching a game when you know the final score.

What are your thoughts on it? Recommend it? How much formal logic and mathematics is necessary to understand it? How would you rate it on the spiral (solid stage yellow book)?

So this work is a role of the dice after all? I remember this line from your "Motivational Speech for a Profound Life"

Sounds intriguing. Would you mind to elaborate?

2019 was very volatile for me personally. Started out ok, got pretty bad at around April-Juli and picked up momentum again in October. I was not really in the place to set goals in 2018, but you of coruse always implicitly have some goals/ intentions. I would say I delivered on some, outperformed on some, and failed at others. Financially, 2019 was pretty good. Gained of knowledge in many areas which is great. Gained clarity and improved infrastructure. Health-wise was not so good. My nutrition was okay, but I got some problems with my body which I cant seem to fix since a couple of months (but it would be kinda unfair to balme 2019 because I probably seeded these problems in 2016-2018) What are your goals for 2020?`:)

Hey everybody, I recently rewatched the Netflix-Documentary "Betting on Zero". It is about a MLM company called Herbalife and about Bill Ackman how shorts Herbalife (he bets money on them being worth nothing). I really like the documentary because it is well made. What i find interesting is how Bill Ackmann is portrayed. Of course, the documentary is kinda biased for him, but nevertheless he seems very interesting to me. He basically used for pretty egoic way (hedgefund investing) in order to stop devilry (he even wanted to donate the profit to the victims of Herbalife - but he did not make a profit because the stock rose). For people who watched the documentary, would you consider Ackman to be a stage yellow investor? Especially in the debates with Carl Icahn that they showed - he seemed much more developed and needless to say extremely intellegent and strategic.

I know it is a little bit long, but worth watching. Amazing insight into how orange scams work.

C++

I would not educate them too much. Most "normies" simply want to enjoy the altered state of consciousness. Listening to their favorite songs on LSD Eating fruits on LSD Maybe watching cartoons or just doing other funny stuff Of course this is not effective nor optimal for tripping. But most people authentically want to do these things. In once tripped with a friend who was not into consciousness work and he got pretty pissed when I critisized him listening to music. I was kinda indoctrinated by Leos video where he basically advises against all the activities above. But remember that you have a completely different background and experiences. Most people simply find it too counterintuitive not to do fun stuff when it is even more fun on LSD. So I would say: Make sure that the setting is solid (not going to a nightclub, making sure they have no obligations the next day, make sure everybody is in a positive state and not depressed at that time). So basically preventing some kind of catastrophy Be ready to asist them wen the trip goes south And if everybody is in a good state, let them do their trip intuitevly, not judge any "stupid" behaviors After the first trip you can pick the friends who seem more eager to really do work with psychedelics and introduce them to what this would look like.

In which city do you study? I think you mentioned something about being in Germany. Hannover? I live in Berlin btw

Hey man, very nice journal. Gave me some inspiration for how to journal myself. What are you studying btw?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG9TMn1FJzc Don't take survival for granted.

Dont underestimate how well China is doing. I would argue that Tencent is almost Google level when it comes to their paradigm. Not only are all their products revolutionary and even more advanced than Facebooks products, their offices are also highly advanced.