Aramara

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About Aramara

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    Mesopotamia
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  1. Jesus got killed because he proclaimed the divine authority as "Son of God" several times in front of the Pharisees. It wasn't politics but blasphemy that got him killed. The only element of politics in his death is the fact that religious authority at the time persuaded the Romans by lying that he claimed to become a king. But it was the blasphemy that instantiated this all
  2. No, we will probably see a short-term boost in the economy (more akin to throwing diesel on the fire) due to the R’s textbook policy moves over the past 25 years or so that are best described as “short term gain, long term pain.” Trump will throw diesel on the fire whether the economy needs it or not. But there will always be a “price to pay” for that approach; and if tariffs go forward as promised - that will settle timing and amount of the price that will need to be paid. I am already seeing that investors assume this is coming as well. Treasury yields are going up already. There is some correlation with decent economic data that can cause this too; but investors are altering portfolios already based on “short terms gains coming, but long term pains (inflation)” will be coming along too. A lot of foreign investors are grabbing dollars now too for the ‘ole “switch-a-roo” to exchange dollars back to native currencies when the dollar loses strength on the foreign exchange market (dollar will strengthen in the short term, hit the inflection point where a stressed economy and inflation take hold, dollar starts to lose value against foreign currency; convert back to native currency - end up with more native currency than started with). Note: dollar is already strengthening as numerous foreign investors are trading for dollars, american stocks, looking for securities, and so on. So no personally I see the opposite where we're gonna see short-term boom in stock market and a crash right before Trump steps down. Trump in the end is a business man and he will do ANYTHING to have the stock market boom even if it comes at a price for later administrations to solve.
  3. Absolutely. What I hope to see is that the 2010 naive utopian leftism that's been sprawling in universities finally collapses, similair to the hippie movement in 1960 - 1970. Only then we get to see true Democrats that can intellectually progress our society values. Or at the very least compete against the right to create a healthy discourse. This extreme focus on gender, sexuality, race, credentials has led the democrat party into an absolute gutter and complete alienation of the working class (especially young men).
  4. Embracing Christianity / Christian values and rejecting the conformity of LGBTQ+ has become the new punk rock counter culture of today's youth. Very surreal to witness
  5. This tweet (by a Democrat strategist) is a perfect encapsulation of the mistakes the left keep making over and over: obsession with racial identity obession with gender identity obsession with elitist credential zero self-reflection or humility The world needs a sane and intelligent left to act as a counter-balance to the excesses of the right (and vice versa). I hope they finally take stock, drop the divisive identity politics virtue signalling BS and actually return to their core higher values of social cohesion and kindness. I also expect the 2010s naive utopian leftism to decline in popularity similair like the 1960s-1970s hippie movement collapsed in past. The left won’t disappear of course, rather it will be much more matured and grounded, opposed what we have seen with SJWs in 2010s and echo-chambers of early 2020s.
  6. I see you only picked up smoking since 3 months. I remember my first couple months where I really enjoyed smoking because of its novelty. But the longer you keep at it the harder it will be to quit. I started smoking 7 years ago and quit like a month ago after multiple unsuccesful iterations of quitting. My greatest advice to you is.. quit now ! The money you burn, the health you jeopardise, the teeth you ruin, the time you waste and just the overall personal hygiene going down. Really it's not worth it for just a single minute of temporary high. Best to do it just cold turkey and sit with the unease for 3 days. After that your body will very quickly adjust. The best part is food tastes amazing again because tar blocks your taste-receptors. Good luck
  7. 1. How is it overrated? To some extent it is already our reality no? With companies like Meta and TikTok that use machine learning to train models that accurutely predict your next mood shift based on your entire user profile. These companies know exactly what tickles you and when to show a specific ad for the best possible conversion. I am only envisioning a continuation of this techno-feudalism where the AI gets a little bit more invasive and the boundaries of data-privacy dissolve a tiny bit more. Doesn't automatically imply that money as a concept is gone for good. Even in a world where money is diluted. Humans will always find a way to barter together maybe in the form of digital cryptocurrency tokens. 2. AI may not have emotions but it reflects and amplifies the biases, fears, and repressed elements of the human data it’s trained on. Also you can't just "code" in coping mechanisms. You can only detect the vulnerabilities after a model is done training during a process called "red-teaming". This is when a team of researchers are inspecting the AI to observe for strange behaviours and phenomenas which is called "model collapse". It's when an AI starts off fine generating an answer and then mid-sentence it collapses and generates some eerie and strange outputs which some AI Researchers intepret as artifacts of emotions. They then try to reinforce and beat that behaviour out of it but it's not an exact science like coding and math is, also it costs these AI labs billions with no measurablity to it. Till this day we've had a real hard time in aligning and steering these models. Just look at the epic fail of Google trying to align their model with woke diversity principles and then it refused to generate a white person.
  8. A machine ultimately has way more computational resources, higher throughput and bandwidth to reason across all domains. Humans are constrained in time, energy and genetics to scale their learning and thinking like an AI does. Therefore we hold AI's capabilities and accuracy rate to much higher standards than a human. Pre-GPT we always defined AGI as a virtuoso AI that is a master at any intellectual task. This is how DeepMind and most of the estabilished AI labs approached the ultimate AGI objective. Now with OpenAI stealing the show and Sam Altman claiming that AGI should basically be "a median human". We've degraded the term AGI to the 50th percentile of humans while for decades it represented a virtuoso and multidisciplinary master. All these new AI labs that use this non-standard definition of AGI is all done to attract in more investor money which keeps the hype circus going on. If you can redefine the bar and lower it then yea sure we can reach AGI in 1 or 2 years. But when it comes to an AGI that can do any intellectual task a human can we are still a couple major breakthroughs away.
  9. There's two looming risks that are at play with AI The first one is rich tech-elites that will integrate AI so deeply into everything in that you can't go back without using it (pc's, internet, smartphones, etc). Then they will mine every little thought of yours and be able to monetise it. Something in the realm of Brave New World and 1984 The second one is AI could become a mirror of the collective unconscious of humanity, including all its repressed elements manifesting a digital version of a Jungian shadow. It's like the whole of humanity is joined as one entity and then imagined as a Digital Jungian shadow. The things which we as humans have suppressed in our collective psyche for centuries will now build up inside this black box. I call it a black box because AI / Machine Learning researchers know how neural networks work and how they learn. But till this day we don't know "why" it works and how it compresses the world into a large blob that reflects a world model.
  10. I don't think you need to teach someone how to use AI. The beautiful thing about AI is that it adapts to your question context and is completely personalised. Best way to learn is by just spending a couple minutes everyday having a small conversation about a deep complex theme you want to explore. Then you will get more of a "feeling" with it and develop a muscle on how to best use AI as a tool.