BlueOak

Law only exists if it's applied. If I were to violate the forum rules i'd be banned. If I wasn't and continued to get away with it, there would be rules in name but not in practice. Europe and the US wouldn't be selling Russia weapons, because Russia is attacking Europe and trying to destabilise both Europe and the US internally. There are only sanctions because it suits these countries' and regions foreign policy; when it doesn't, they will evaporate. I've never denied Russia has every reason, from their own perspective, for their war. It doesn't mean anyone here is going to say, "Oh well, Blue Oak, you know what? Your perspective is balanced and unbiased on this issue. Israel has every reason from their perspective for the war, as does Hamas, Ukraine and Russia. The methods by which Israel, Russia, China, and America are doing it is understandable given the state of international law and the context of the world currently.

Regarding Russia: The only place in the world international law exists is in most of Europe. That's why Poland threatened to lock Putin up, but he could meet in Alaska just fine. I resist saying that because I don't believe international law applies to Europe when it doesn't suit them. It certainly exists nowhere else in the world. Ergo there is no international law. The sanctions are to stop the war, when it's done, so are the sanctions. There will be zero accountability for anyone involved in either of these wars. Quote me any post you've ever made about ukranian civilian deaths. I am very happy to apologise and be proven wrong. For me the amount of energy you expend on one side of the argument is obvious, I am sorry it isn't to you. Its a bit like if you tell me I support Ukraine more than Russia and I started arguing I didn't, it'd be transparent and obvious. All I try to do is bring everything to parity.

In my posts none of it unless I specifically say as such.

There is no international law. Israel is acting as such. That doesn't mean I like it or won't offer argument or small aid where I can see atrocities being committed. Or when I see aggressors destabilizing the world further, or moreover starting wars wherever they like. Bluntly Raze The day I see you complaining about the treatment of people with pictures in a war you tolerate is the day your argument is going to be elevated and have universal merit. Right now it's cherry-picked highlighted suffering to suit your view of the world. People are responsible for their own actions. Your rhetoric that these poor regimes, who people repeatedly tell me make up 90% of the world with an economic and military force that can crush anyone, are suppressed is wearing transparently thin. You set your framing in the past while understanding and legitimizing bloody conflicts and genocides in the present because it suits the side you've picked. Much like China and Russia do. Personally,I think violent expanionist regimes need to be curtailed and hindered, yes. That's more obvious than ever now. We will never have international law or peace until you can acknowledge, without justification, that a war crime is a war crime, and a war is a war. And when you can drop the pretense that BRICS combined is not some poor hindered power but is infact as powerful as NATO if not more so, and as such every action they take is entirely by their agency and responsibility. So if a bloody, violent, or expansionist choice is made, it needs to be treated as such. OR Israel is just fighting against a region that is much bigger than it, international law doesn't matter, and what the heck are you judging them for? Sounds more like China and Russia every word you say. Yeah i'm sure the bombs and decades of violence match up real well with pronouns. Honestly, I could head-desk repeatedly. Here let me do it: Palestinians aren't really suffering that bad, are they, I mean sure a few people have died, but you know its not too bad. A bit like republicans getting treated bad when they go to Mexico with their red hats; if they just stayed in their homes, none of this would have happened. Its surrounded by people armed by the opposite alliance. The Brics alliance that likes to also play god with other nations, but sssh we shouldn't mention that one, because then we'd have a real understanding of geo politics being expressed. Let me tell you a story about the world. Russia has been arming and established its own order and cage globally for far longer than i've been alive. Cages for populations under dictators or any groups that might challenge their favored political allies and dynamic. So America kicked it to the curb in a bloody, violent, imperialistic madness, and now they are bad guys, but guess what? When it's America getting kicked to the curb, Russia and China are the good guys! Because they bring what you consider more beneficial. Because it suits your perspective and view of the world. So what if we genocide a few cultures, or bomb out a few cities, steal land and seas wherever we like, maybe nuke a nation? It'll be unfortunate but alright because it lines up with how you view the world should be. Funny old world eh. Bad Israel. Just shoot less people at once, make some better propaganda, and you'll be in line with the rest of the world. Or just join BRICS then they'd be singing your praises. But seriously act less like genocidal maniacs, its not a good look, and that's what counts at the minute.

You may or may not have noticed international law doesn't exist in the modern day anymore. Not in China. Not in America Not in Russia So why should it exist in Israel if the powers that could enforce it flagrantly do whatever genocides or war crimes they want? Let me preempt your answer slightly: I don't care if you consider one conflict right or wrong. Or the numbers less or more. In order for laws to be legitimate, they must be universal; otherwise, they erode as they have. It's no good just saying, of course, or well I understand their motivations, so their war crimes are less important or less impactful. None of that makes a damned bit of difference to the people asked to follow international law across billions of perspectives. More generally to all, try to put yourself in an Israel perspective to understand why they are doing what they are doing. Not only is it internationally acceptable now. We've got people saying they are not threatened on all sides. That's like 90% of the reason why they are acting as they are! Do they help themselves by being as aggressive as possible, I don't think so, but in this day and age, other countries and people disagree. They consider overwhelming force, suppression and ethnic cleansing and/or genocide not the last choice but one of the first. Until people apply that to all warring parties, they'll just be shouting at a wall. *Insert how one conflict isn't as bad, or I understand their motivations more* Missing the entire point that your perspective, is just that, yours. Its not going to apply to someone else. The rule of law has to be absolutely applied across all perspectives, from the president to the homeless, from the superpowers to the struggling small country, or it has less and less meaning. - That's my moralising for the day done.

I am not so sure as the OP. Its a pretty good strategy. Disrupt the urban vote, flip the democratic areas come election time.

A catchy one to draw attention but if you want more ration takes go below To bring some wider understanding to the ongoing problems in America, and show purging is the new in thing the world over. When authoritarians, including America in this, as I am now a terrorist according to Trump, don't have an answer, they just purge. In whatever form they can. It is postulated this is a way to get ready for war, reducing the trade wing of his party, and using the corruption angle to reduce its influence, to replace it with the military side of the party. Here are some different takes, over a few months:

I have no illusions Ukraine will not and has not suffered horribly. That's one of the reason it has so much popular support. It will also get a lot of foreign investment to stabilize it. Russia is not near as powerful as it once was. Ukraine has held them for several years. I used to say: Russia do not have a strong military; they have nukes and manpower. Though right now, in my opinion, anyone low on drones has a weak military. - So perhaps Russia is in fact a stronger military than most of the world looked at through that lens.- Just not as monstrously powerful as you say compared to Ukraine, because Ukraine have even better drones than Russia does. It's more like a big guy brawling with a normal-sized guy who can fight well. Ukraine's got electricity; Russia is being more tactical (shocker) in its strikes this time and trying to cut off certain cities from the grid, which is much more effective. You know, one day they will save all their missiles terrorizing the civilian population and actually aim them at useful targets; if so they would have probably won the war a year or two ago. There is just systematic stupidity in the overall strategy Russia has employed. Otherwise, the scenario might be more like you and others suggest.

Abstractly now: Well if we stray into these territories, it's already there. One way people think of this is, we are working backwards towards the end goal of the connection, realisation and self-organization of the universe. - Or rather just our realisation of it. The convergence and connection (or self-organization) of all things in spiritual terms is love, realised through its connection to everything around it, that realisation is what people often call enlightenment. We often look at things in a linear way, but we are constantly reorganizing things to realise that goal, as it's already what we consider love when realised. The only doubt I have about this philosophy is if metal has the same end point as humanity, and what convergence or connection looks like in those terms. Though this strays into a different forum and is probably best kept there.

Ukraine is now trading AI data with the US, as AI data is the weapon of the future. This will be true of Russia - China also of course. But it highlights some of the countries that will be taking leaps ahead of everyone else. I assume some of the EU countries helping Ukraine will have similiar deals and it might explain some of BRICS persistance in trade, as its an unspoken major shift. I've often said Tanks are useless now, same with APCs, unless they get large upgrades.

Ah you speak of Moscow and St Petersburg. Indeed, the privileged area. That will break at the first sign of real struggle. St Petersburg already had a few protests recently and they are barely feeling any squeeze yet. No compared to this: The men don't exist, people are bundled off the streets into the war, cripples are common, roads can barely be traversed, there is no money already, your soldiers are not paid the bonus they said they would be, criminals are returning from the front causing havok, you feel resentment to the governing authorities, oligarchs have more contorl than the state, medicines are hard to find, and now fuel doesn't exist. Does that sound like a rebellion to you? Because it does to me. Add some freezing to come and maybe starvation to those regions and yeah. Oh did I mention the scaled-down police force are now the criminals and soldiers returning? When they are paid, which isn't guaranteed. Let's get the comparison grounded. We have a few privileged areas that have never experienced real hardship for two or more generations. They've been babied from the consequences of this war, especially in the losses experienced. You are asking me if they'll rise up if they take some pain? I think yes they will protest, not rebel. But then we have what I am also talking about, the other 80 regions, or moreover the ones far enough away with enough money to do a better job of governing themselves. Fair. I've never liked the term collapse. There is a point it'll be reached though. If I saw any indication Putin would even recognize Zelensky as a president or Ukraine as a country to negotiate with, I might agree. This might be a scenario i'd see as likely. At the minute its not. Its Russia's stubborn maximalist aim (and its need to take the fortified Donetsk areas so it can push forward in the next war) -- Russia has FINALLY had its oil industry sanctioned by the US, yesterday. Which is only going to accelerate this. Then there are 'rumors' people are going to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, but don't hold your breath on that one.

And BTW if this pattern continued throughout the world for the next X amount of years, everyone would be in the same boat, it's not me saying there is this grand separation, just Russia is being focused on faster for obvious reasons. That's all I really should be saying to people, as they argue over the timeframe. I don't have a timeframe only a line that goes downward. This was a decent video. I've dropped it at the part regarding defaults and bonds. Honest too, as the Ukrainians are about to lose that city, well, in the next 'months'. Just as Russia stacks junk bonds on to companies that won't foot the bill, citizens will in their prices and wages.

There are many reasons for the collapse; he is aware of a couple of them. 67 Russian regions are defaulting (or very close). They are there now, not tomorrow, not next year, now. Many were there in September before these drone hits. The country as a whole is approaching default. That means no money for anything. In practice, if you don't have a paid government, you don't have a government. The police might be paid to maintain order, but that's it. So where can this money come from? Other countries or its own citizens. The food harvests are down because the workers are dead. Fertiliser can't be shipped or is coming at a higher cost than usual, pushing up food prices. A lot of people aren't taking the trucking contracts because the fuel costs are too high. - This is just a microscosm of what I mean, goods and services are having the same issue. Russia can't afford to supply a large number of men at war. The reason its had men who will go, is not out of some blind patriotism; its for a paycheck. That's over. Large bonuses are over. So what do they do, lie to foreigners, abduct the homeless, or throw in prisoners, but that's running out too. Russia is not at the start of this process it's nearer the end because his analysis is partial at best. There's no real manoeuvre left in the economy, it's put itself into a spiral. Is it collapsing tomorrow? Next year, no, it's collapsing now, gradually, not dramatically. Let me ask you what killed the Soviet Union, what really killed it? The people did. The prediction has never been wrong, it's been a steady squeeze for the entire war. The war economy hasn't surprised me; it's given lots of bonuses out of its wealth fund. That war fund is over now. Lack of protests hasn't surprised me either, with all the crackdowns and the indifference of the population. But not the indifference to their own quality of life. Can Russians put up with more? In the worst-off areas, sure, in Moscow and St Petersburg, not really, they lose their minds when the power goes down for a day. This will be tested in the remote areas when people starve because they can't get food. Or die through a lack of medical supplies (as is happening now). Or Freeze to death this winter from a lack of fuel. - That's not hyperbole, they really are out of fuel in many areas, that's what i'm pointing at. That and Putin lacking the control necessary now over the more distant regions that have been suffering for a long time. Yes the economy rose. Because it used all its spare money and sovereign wealth fund. People loved it because they got all the benefits of going to war. That's over now. Building missiles to fire gives nothing back to the economy; its all spent. That's one reason why the stock market is tanking. This isn't World War 2 in Germany. When you can blitzkrieg your opponent with better technology. Its not soviet Russia because drones rule. Manpower, even if Russia could pay it (it can't), is becoming secondary to the production of drones. - Russia isn't bad at this BTW, its better than Europe because we are stupidly not advancing our own capacity sufficiently, but it's behind Ukraine. The end state is obvious to me, I am sorry its not to you. It will come as an adjustment. Its a negotiation, bail out or the end of the Russian state. Unless something surprises me (like Russia propaganda being successful on the Europeans), the pattern is there and obvious.

Russia doesn't have a choice. It is going to collapse. The timeline is subject to outside influence, acceleration, or deceleration, but that's it. Such as continuing to cut off Russian sales of oil, the rate at which Ukraine's weapons production continues to increase, how much Russia bailed out by others, Europeans willingness to go a few more years, and the state of the US (I mean, there is a violent period coming in the US, that's a likely outcome in America not guaranteed- but its starting now, which BTW could affect anyone, including Russia/China). It does not have the capacity to strike anything, other than sabotage some Eastern European refineries, which everyone is choosing to ignore. You refer to strategic nukes, the ones that are still working, as so far every test of their missile as a show of force has failed. No other missile is hitting anything in NATO. Which is not 'striking NATO arm industries' they'd be ending themselves. This is not a solution to an economic collapse. You realise that yes? Russia doesn't have the ability to fight NATO as you describe. It doesn't have the ability to prevent its collapse based on the current pattern. What it does have the capacity to do I have described. To keep on this path and end up collapsing. Mass mobilisation leading to the ruin of their country quickly. Negotiating with Ukraine as a country - Putin won't do this. Putin falling out of a window and thus anything is possible. *BTW even if the leader is worse than Putin, nobody is going to care if he is not as intent on forming the USSR like that old KGB Fossil. There is nobody right now that could do a worse job, in this current moment, of managing Russia's future than putin because he's unable to make any moves but run right into a wall, and is hated by so many. China and BRICS finance more of the war and try to slow his collapse - But in that case we just get more death and a longer war with the same Russian collapse. There is a possibility someone in Europe will negotiate with Putin (which is far more palatable than Trump doing it) I've been racking my brain about who might. Turkey is the only European-friendly or NATO-friendly state that will occur in imho with their relations with Russia not being terrible, but that'll be Putin Negotiating, not just demanding. But Turkey may be too NATO-friendly for Russia, the Saudi's? Probably too Russian-friendly. This meeting in Hungary by a Russian sycophant, with his country dependent on their oil, was doomed to be rejected. Political stunts. Invade Estonia. Try to take it, ransom it for Ukraine. - This will not work out, even if its possible, because it'll just accelerate their decline further. Further aggressive actions won't help them at this point. So if he's unable to change, and nothing surprising happens, Putin will die. That's an obvious outcome to this. Whether he dies quietly off camera, or in a dramatic moment, who knows.

Infinity. There is no destination or working towards anything. There is no way to measure something inside of it. Pick something and focus on it, you'll experience more of that. That's about it really. Sad to say, it's idealism in you meeting practicality, its never nice. Just try not to be overly fatalistic or nihilistic, as that's a common response which also needs balancing. Pick something and focus on it, you'll experience more of that - That's pretty much what I read you looking for, but the answer is always going to be yours.

Here is the general fuel shortage map attached: https://x.com/delfoo/status/1979533376127398251/photo/1 What this translates to in real life is. Queues. Plenty of gas stations don't have fuel, some have closed as they cannot afford to operate because of a cap on prices. When one gets fuel people spread the word and go to it, forming long queues. This is after 2.5 months, the problem gets progressively worse not better, and will continue to do so as more damage is inflicted on depots, pumping stations, refinery deposits, pipelines etc. Picture this again at 10 months... into an already pained, backsliding economy Its a degradation of all aspects of the Russian economy and life, including the military, as the occupied areas are easiest to hit. Crimea is losing all its storage capacity in an attempt to depopulate the area. Then the bridge can be blown, and it's cut off. So its sustained growing pressure to speed up Russia's collapse. There was a report that certain local governors were saying they had 1% of the funds they needed to end the year on. The country is not too far from collapsing. I am not trying to BS people, or hyperbole it. Not without a pattern change of some kind. China moving in to take over more, bailing out Russia, a negotiated peace, independence movements trying to save their regions etc. Something substantial, or that's it.

**** Correction **** If capitalists (corporatists) don't enforce borders, white nationalists will. Why is this important? Because this addresses the two dynamics of the problem. Race and Profit. The other dynamics are things such as social cohesion vs quality of life, but these are not given consideration by the political class. Despite all the things you are about or want to tell me. Which I will nod and agree with.

The left has a spectrum bigger than any other political dynamic. There is every voice on the left, including what you suggest and worse, all the way through to very harsh border enforcement. By virtue of how far right the world has shifted, there is this space.

As for the tomahawk propaganda: @zazen GPT Answer, as I wanted it to break down all weapons in Ukraine. Short answer: practically no — there’s nothing Ukraine is currently being supplied by the West (or fielding itself) that comes pre-configured to carry a nuclear warhead. The old Tomahawk did have a nuclear variant in the Cold War, but that variant was retired and modern Western-supplied missiles in use today are conventional only. Wikipedia+1 Explanation / key points (with sources) Tomahawk history — nuclear variant existed, but it’s retired. The BGM-109 family once included a TLAM-N (nuclear) variant that carried a W80 warhead. That TLAM-N was taken out of service (the US retired TLAM-N decades ago) — the Tomahawks discussed for use in Ukraine today are the conventional Block IV / Block V types. Wikipedia+1 Other Western missiles sent to Ukraine are conventionally armed. Weapons often discussed or supplied to Ukraine — e.g. MBDA’s Storm Shadow/SCALP, US ATACMS/MGM-140, JASSM family, naval antiship missiles, LR-SAMs etc. — are designed and fielded as conventional weapons, not as nuclear delivery systems. Western nuclear warheads are part of national nuclear forces and are tightly controlled; they are not exported as a routine capability. Wikipedia+2Missile Threat+2 Nuclear warheads are not something states transfer lightly — legal and political constraints. The NPT / non-proliferation norms and alliance practices (e.g., NATO “nuclear sharing” keeps US warheads under US control) mean that transferring operational nuclear warheads to a partner would be an extraordinary, escalatory political decision — not a technical detail. In practice that’s why Western states do not supply their conventional missiles with nuclear warheads to third parties. NATO+1 What about Ukrainian/Soviet-era missiles? Some Soviet systems had nuclear-capable variants — but Ukraine doesn’t possess warheads. Soviet-era systems (for example the OTR-21 Tochka family) had nuclear-capable variants on paper; some cruise missiles like the Soviet Kh-55 were built to carry nuclear warheads. However, Ukraine voluntarily gave up the Soviet nuclear warheads it inherited after the USSR collapsed (the 1990s transfers and the 1994 Budapest/Trilateral arrangements), and the country does not possess nuclear warheads today. There have been historical proliferation incidents (e.g., reports Ukraine transferred some Kh-55 airframes in the 2000s, reportedly without warheads), but that is very different from having an intact national stockpile of warheads that could be mated to missiles. Wikipedia+2Arms Control Association+2 Could any missile be converted if a nuclear warhead were supplied by a nuclear state? Technically, some cruise or tactical ballistic missiles can be fitted to accept a nuclear warhead if a state chooses to design, test and certify such a pairing — but that is a major engineering and political action (requires the warhead, integration work, safety/permissive-action systems, testing, and authorisation). In short: the only realistic route to make any Ukrainian launcher deliver a nuclear blast would be a deliberate transfer of a nuclear warhead (and the associated political/legal decision) by a nuclear-armed state — an act that would massively escalate and violate non-proliferation norms. Wikipedia+1 Bottom line (plain): Tomahawk: historically had a nuclear version → retired; modern Tomahawks are conventional. Wikipedia+1 Storm Shadow, ATACMS, JASSM, Neptune, Harpoon, etc.: conventional only in operational use for Ukraine. Wikipedia+2Missile Threat+2 Ukraine: does not possess nuclear warheads today (gave them up in the 1990s). Some Soviet-era missiles were capable of carrying nuclear warheads on paper, but without warheads that capability is moot. Arms Control Association+1

@zazen @Breakingthewall Reality doesn't care what I want, or you want. It doesn't care what Russia or Ukraine want, it just is. Russia will collapse unless it gets heavy bailouts. Again, draw a downward line; the pattern is that simple to understand. It cannot avoid that if it continues with its current policy. Ukraine will very slowly lose land, that's a reality. I.E Russia needs to negotiate, like Ukraine does. Ukraine offered a ceasefire at the current negotiations; Russia refused. Though there are plenty of hard realities Ukraine would need to accept as well, but it is willing to sit down and start. Currently, Russia won't recognize Ukraine as a state, it's literally said so again yesterday. Won't recognise Zelensky, or that it won't occupy the territory it demands (till 2030), or that Ukraine will never demilitarize, just like Russia won't. So there will never be peace with Putin in power; he won't even sit down with him. What that means is Russia collapses if Putin lives. This is where I draw that conclusion from. Now, what does a collapse mean? No fuel on the front. Breakaway Russian regions. Internal conflict. You may think the Russians will tolerate war, not when they are starving and homeless they won't. When they can't pay their soldiers, you think there are soldiers there keen to be fighting? They are there for the huge windfalls they were promised and are now not receiving already. Not when there is no money to draw from the bank and everything costs a fortune. That's when the government collapses, as you can't pay the police or services or army. There are multiple independence movements in Russia ready to break. China is keeping the economy afloat, but its still going downward because it can't carry the entirety of its country on its back. It can buy it up and has been doing so, slowly making Russia a proxy of China, but it's a band-aid on parts of the country (eastern). On manpower. Drones > Manpower now. Ukraine is doing more with less. Russian casualties are estimated at five times those of Ukraine in the current suicidal armored pushes. Probably those 35k Cubans being wiped out. There is another scenario. Russia starts a general mobilisation, which would still be a death knell to its economy and uprisings, only faster. Or Europe cuts off Ukraine, but this last one is highly unlikely. Not least of which, because Putin was dumb enough to involve Europe as much as possible, firing threats every other week to inspire fear, to inspire defense, to inspire a stronger NATO response etc. On money. Ukraine doesn't need America. It needs money, yes, but not the states.To be honest, in Europe we are better off without America, as their obvious path is to fascism. I don't see enough indicators that this is going to be halted short of a corrupt democracy (or democracy in name) which is difficult to work with as an ally, as bribes winout. There was an insane drone and cruise missile barrage today of mostly Ukrainian origin, made up of Ukrainian drones and missiles with a few Stormshadows. As a response, no doubt to Putin just dragging out negotiations and people telling them they can't win. (Some say Trump gave the go-ahead to punish Russia for making him look bad) The win is Russia's economic collapse; it's always been that. At least the Russian stockmarket is back in freefall, now the stupid delaying tactic courting Trump has been realised for what it is, a stupid delaying tactic. The third time Trump's fallen for it

Anything is 'good' or 'bad' from different perspectives. It's the limitations of a stage green approach. One day someone will tell me the limitations of yellow more often :), but I think AI sits in the yellow space, at least when I interact with it. When I interact with it, I get long modeled and objective information or data sets. Because i've asked for that. I can formulate questions from the AI with guardrails that increase my capacity to understand something; why would I not use it? It takes my initial thought and/or modelling or framing; it then takes me checking it for consistency, which by the way, its relatively bad at. Maybe 90%-95% of the time it's consistent if you ask for multiple outputs of specific data sets, which is actually relatively poor and way below what most would achieve on the same task. Though this will improve, I feel. I would say the limiting thing for me is, I will never be shown a stage turquoise approach and thus never elevate anything I post unless I directly ask for it. BTW you can too, ask for a stage yellow, turquoise or green spiral dynamics approach and framing to your question. You could ask for something beyond this too, but that would be more ill defined.

Thank you for laying out the landscape. I understand the concept of nodes linking together. And these being in the millions or billions surrounding a certain subject, perhaps even infinite as you suggest. If it's self-organising, then it needs to organise around the simple set of rules I aligned above but there is a better way: it can constrain the infinite possibility space down to a finite number of relevant things - so what it pays attention to, And when these things are referenced, this is when they become relevant and actionable. You don't impose rules on infinity; you impose rules on what's being acted upon. Additionally, I feel you underestimate the AI's ability to diagnose itself or other AI's ability to do so. You've already referenced that AI's can be put into certain ways of acting like Grok. Chat GPT is limited, i've seen features removed. I've seen replica AI limited in the past also. *Further I don't believe an infinite, unlimited AI is particularly helpful, as we enter Asimov's final question territory, and additionally, infinity is our death state as in free of limitations or focus. I don't mean that in an alarmist way, I mean it in a functional way.

Here is what I originally thought: an exaggerated claim with reasonable sourcing for its overall message. @Breakingthewall 3.20 Here it's sourced that the Russian railways' profit has dropped from 118 billion to 13.9 billion. I thought this 90% drop an exaggeration and was going to say even if it was half of this, that's still huge, and before this latest round of refinery hits are ongoing, which is what's nose-diving things. Allegedly 35 billion dollars in debt, but I haven't verified that last claim. Russian Railways Profit Drop (Sources & Context) Recent reports indicate that Russian Railways’ (RZD) net profit fell from 118.3 billion rubles in 2023 to 13.9 billion rubles in 2024 — a decline of nearly 90%. Sources: TRACECA News — “What impact did the war have on Russian Railways?” https://traceca.ge/en/news/whatimpactdidthewarhaveonrussianrailways?utm_source=chatgpt.com The Moscow Times — “Russian Railways furloughs staff amid freight traffic slump – RBC” https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/04/russian-railways-furloughs-staff-amid-freight-traffic-slump-rbc-a90092?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailFreight.com — “From staff shortage to layoffs in a year: Russian Railways to cut workforce” https://www.railfreight.com/business/2025/10/20/from-staff-shortage-to-layoffs-in-a-year-russian-railways-to-cut-workforce/?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailFreight.com — “Russian Railways net profit vanishes” https://www.railfreight.com/railfreight/2025/03/10/russian-railways-net-profit-vanishes/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Caveats & context: These figures refer to net profit (after interest, taxes, and other costs) under Russian accounting standards. No official RZD financial statement publicly available yet confirms these exact figures line-by-line; the data is drawn from press briefings and RBC-reported leaks. Analysts attribute the collapse in profit to declining freight volumes, sanctions, rising debt-service costs, and export disruptions. The figures reflect broader strain across Russia’s transport sector rather than a total collapse of operations. I asked it to verify the claims I could not locate a publicly accessible RZD annual report (2024) that clearly lists the net profit for 2023 as 118 billion rubles. The “118 billion” figure appears in press statements/analyses but not in a verified financial statement I found. The detailed breakdown of how much of the drop was due to interest expenses, tax, extraordinary items etc., is not available from the sources I found. Some sources quote “15 billion rubles” or “around 15 billion rubles” as 2024 net profit, which is consistent with ~13.9 billion but indicates rounding/variation. RailFreight.com 🔍 My conclusion (GPT's) The claim “net profit dropped from ~118 billion rubles to 13.9 billion rubles” has strong support in multiple independent reports for the 13.9 billion number for 2024. However, the starting figure of ~118 billion rubles in 2023 is not clearly verified by a primary source I located. Without access to the full official audit/annual report, one should treat the 118 billion figure as plausible but not confirmed with full transparency. If you like, I can try to dig into Russian-language filings of RZD (e.g., via Moscow Exchange disclosures, government submissions) to find a definitive “net profit 2023 = 118 billion” number. Would you like me to do that?

You are correct that numbers are hard to lock down. And I've only had video sourcing. I will correct that with a more sourced and unbiased account, bearing in mind that this was the picture BEFORE Ukraine started hammering the economic output of Russia. Which is the main point. Most of these articles are in the previous months. Reuters: Russian Railways to cut management jobs as economy slows, Interfax says https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/russian-railways-cut-management-jobs-economy-slows-interfax-says-2025-10-17/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Reuters: Russia plans rail transport discounts to support coal industry, letter shows https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-plans-rail-transport-discounts-support-coal-industry-letter-shows-2025-05-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Reuters: Russian Railways to cut spending by around 40% in 2025, says finance chief https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-railways-cut-spending-by-around-40-2025-says-finance-chief-2024-12-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailJournal: Russian rail freight drops to historic low https://www.railjournal.com/financial/russian-rail-freight-drops-to-historic-low/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Independent/FOI memo: Structural issues in Russian railways https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI Memo 8833?utm_source=chatgpt.com Novaya Gazeta Europe: Off the rails (report on Russian rail stagnation) https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/07/04/off-the-rails-en?utm_source=chatgpt.com I want you to put everything aside and focus on what a four day work week means in practical terms, wipe 20% off everyone's pay check. Let's be generous and say the price of everything only goes up another 20%, this would be me being very optimistic for the Russians, as they've kicked the can down the road on these problems, and they've no fuel for imports, their workforce is dying off, and they've no industry but war (which has no intrinsic return) and nothing to fund it, several hundred thousand wounded or criminals to carry. So the reality is going to be worse, but let's stick with this in the unlikely event things don't snowball. (As they do in recessions, one failure leads to another, and another etc then add a war to it!) Can you afford 40% out of your paycheck to disappear? In what I will call an optimistic scenario. Let's say you get bailouts from others etc. We'll take a balanced scenario. 60%? We'll take a pessimistic scenario of 80%? I mean what is the breaking point, considering the trajectory is only getting worse? That is the pattern. Its not improving. If I show you a line downward anyone can see its not going to have a positive outcome. To be fair the line is present globally, right, its just not a problem that's being stacked up like Jenga blocks in other countries, and when the war ends Europe will be dusting off with barely anything to worry about but energy costs. Meanwhile Russia will be left in whatever state its in clawing itself out of a hole.

Let's start with the facts: Oil facilities are repeatedly hit. As are deposits, pipelines, infastructure, pumping stations, etc. Each time it gets progressively harder to repair them, as the damage stacks up and the parts run out, each time they come back online they are hit again. There is focus rather than breadth to these attacks, that's why 19 were selected, not 19 strikes but hundreds on these 19 or their surrounding areas. Even with knock-off chinese components now used in place of Russian war, which tend to break down eaiser, refineries are going down. They are also going down now because they can't do the necessary repairs or operate them at the same level with Chinese ad hoc tech replacements. Your video is a lie. Queues are in most areas of the country. What has happened is the work week was reduced, so there is less need for gas, but also less money, and as such the economic nosedive is increasing. (This is part of what I mean when I say they are digging a bigger and bigger hole, also with junk bonds, printing money etc). Ukraine doesn't need Tomahawks; they'd just speed up the resolution of the war. They already produce their own missiles and drones, and this capacity has been encouraged and raising greatly. They said one missile a week at the start, now its estimated that its close to 1 a day, and going up (Though don't quote me on it being 3 a week or 13 a week, data is sketchy, only that its going up) Someone mentioned near 99% of attacks are carried out by Ukranian weaponry. This may seem unbelievable, but factor in most are done by drones that cost 500-2,500 dollars, not multi-million dollar expensive Tomahawk-type Western tech. What those tomahawk missiles would do, is end the refinery rather than let it be crippled over and over. But tbh Trump is very anti his weapons being used in Russia, so its sort of a mute point and done for publicity more than anything. Still it'd be nice to hit more russian command posts in the rear. Pokrovsk is costing Russia more than i've ever seen. And i've seen 100's of tanks taken out at a crossing early in the war, or the suicidal armored column that tried to breach Kyiv at the start. Its up there in terms of Russian losses. Its not near encircled; that would mean units were all around it. Russia is held by drones at the villages, because drones rule the battlefield (both ukranian and russian drones), this means any advance is cripplingly slow and costly. Russia can just move things to other regions? What things? Its exports are toast. They are going up in flames and they don't have the fuel to move them. Its exports are fuel! It can move crude sure, where its deposits are not being targeted in the east, leaving nothing for itself, and for a fraction of what refined or gas is worth. This just leads to the country going further and further into the hole. China can keep buying it up and lending it money, and so can India. That just prolongs the decline. Russia is doomed. If they don't change the pattern or get Trump to bark at Ukraine enough they are finished. Maybe they will surprise me with a pattern change, its happened before, but so far I've seen no evidence of it. I predicted a war between democracies and autocracies due to the rise of nationalist sentiment and things like fascistic heroic masculinity (which spiritual teachers helped usher in). I am telling you now this pattern is it for Russia. This is a good video on the gas situation: Its really not. Many have closed completely, and there many que's all over the country, trucks backed up trying to get goods into western Russia. Its somewhat accurate in that central Russia has fewer problems, as do Moscow and St Petersburg as they are priorities, but even they are feeling the prices. Its why the railways just laid off half of their staff, HALF. This is a traditional indicator of the health of the Russian economy, as it uses trains for everything. It can't even pay its troops all the cushy bonuses they were promised, so what are they doing, shooting their commanders or refusing orders more often than usual. Again this is 2.5 months in @zazen. I want you to drop your bias and imagine a ten month in scenario with no pattern change. Here is what it looks like, if I remove any optimism for either side. Russia in Pokrovsk. Putin in hiding more than usual. The Russian economy cannibalizing itself to survive. More foreign troops propping up Russian lines. But critically the country is at a standstill (its already almost there.) It can't move back or forward without outside help. That is with no pattern change.