BlueOak

Good update as always. @Twentyfirst It's about many things, mostly summed up by two spheres of influence pushing against each other, like most wars between nations that are not due to a civil breakdown.

There was Russian suppression and violent intimidation, which led to the uprising, but you'll have to give me specific instances to investigate before that. As far as I have been told there wasn't hatred, but the region generally dislikes Russian's meddling in their elections and the constant posturing or projection of fear Russia tries - which is understandable, nobody would like it. Generally, democracies want stable democracies. Yes, they work towards that goal. You don't see people annoyed? Georgia comes to mind, as does Chechnya and, to a certain extent, Belarus. It's a matter of how much meddling goes on and how open it is. Are you saying people like others messing around in their elections, or are okay with it? See America's reaction to Israel and Saudi Arabia openly doing so. They didn't let them become independent because those regions were part of Ukraine. They were fine until Russia's militia started working in them, mostly the militias were manned by Russians in the beginning. All done because Ukraine's proxy government was overthrown as an excuse for war. The US has invaded to topple dictators in several countries within the Russian sphere of influence. That's what great powers do, and it's what Russia is trying to do here. Making a case for the equivalency doesn't change anything or make it better. Why are you so focused on making a moral case against the US again? This is a European war. I understand to keep their moral convictions, people must see someone else doing something wrong and say okay, they are bad, so I'll use that to make a point. It falls apart, though, because it's not US troops there, not US land, and the US is more reluctant than the people closer to it. - I don't make a case for morality as the center of a point, or rarely any part of what I say unless I'm being lazy. It's not very helpful because it's a cyclical my values vs your values argument. Even in the absolute best-case scenario, if I give you that, EU policy is going to change if they have to double their military size for a large border with Russia. People don't pay all that money into their military and not use it; Sadhguru makes that point quite well; the way to peace is to defang the warmakers. That won't happen in a large border with a belligerent neighbor. Someone painting a token government in Ukraine and letting Putin call the shots like Belarus isn't enough - Belarus's posturing and weak government is somewhat likely to get a coup against it for the proliferation of nuclear weapons and threats to use them; that's the sort of threat that won't be ignored.

Reserved for Results

Ongoing Polls and Data June Polls YouGov Poll: June 4, 2024 Labour: 40% | Conservative: 19% | Reform UK: 17% | LibDem: 10% | Green 7% | SNP: 3% | Plaid Cymru: 1% | Others: 2% https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024?constituency=E14001452 Reform is still predicted to get a low number of seats with the voter spread.

Important Election Updates: Please feel free to suggest some! Depending on breaking news or headlines and your ideas, these will likely get swapped around. ITV Leaders Debate Sunak vs Starmer Nigel Farage replaces Richard Tice for Reform UK Leadership £2,000 Pound Tax Claim First Minister of Wales No-Confidence Vote Conservative - Reform Possible Shift

I've started a broad-spectrum data/video thread here and mentioned this as the debate/discussion thread.

Early Polling Data 2024: Image 1 and 2 Source Wikipedia Before / After Source: Telegraph Source: Savanta / Yahoo News Other Excellent Sources: https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election Why a separate thread? I’d like to keep this for data, manifestos, videos, etc. I know I can’t control debate, but there is a whole other thread for that here: https://www.actualized.org/forum/topic/101743-uk-general-election-2024/

1, Ukraine have had plenty of small arms now since the aid came. This is why they are back on offense. They WERE starved yes, because aid was held up and it cost them territory and lives. 2, The average age is higher because the minimum conscription age is 25. (It was 27) and Ukraine now has 500,000 more men recruited for the summer. It's hyperbole again, how they describe it, but that's BP in a nutshell. 3. Russia is being hit across the border because it wasn't working at all to let Russia shell Ukrainian cities and forces with impunity. The war would never cease unless they were denied the ability to create it. 4, Yes BRICS is openly supporting Russia. 5, The momentum is not with Russia, it is more of a bitter stalemate, since aid came into Ukraine they have it actually (but only slightly) 6, France already has instructors there. Their death will not trigger Article 5 on foreign territory, this is again hyperbole from BP. 7, Russia has threatened to nuke the UK every month. Things like the Queen's funeral, for example. It's part of the reason we've hardened toward them; if you threaten Western Europe enough, you get this situation. European powers remilitarizing, its been a long time since we had to, this will bring more war on the continent. 8. Given that 30% of Americans support Russia, and probably 40% in total don't back the aid going, it's not America or Biden doing this or that, it's Biden supporting his allies. This maintains their main trading partner and a lot of the wealth America enjoys. If this instead gets past Ukraine, which it will one way or another if Ukraine falls, all of Europe goes to hell, and my gut says there is a good chance of WW3. War is horrible. These people live in a safe dream world thousands of miles from the fighting, and can't see the implications of what they are asking for. All they can report on is how bad war is, and say those fighting are bad people. Notice how it's all anti-Ukraine, though, and completely lopsided in its reporting. @Loveeee

Shenanigans: I picked my words carefully on the color because I tend to agree that claiming ownership of color is difficult. The slogan, I think, might get him in trouble. Though, if we are honest, is the average person going to look further into this? If everyone started doing it, nobody would know who was who.

This made me smile for some light comic relief. A political candidate in the UK sent out political messages in his two main competitors' colors. With the slogans Labour for Largan and Reform for Robert. Labour and the reform parties are two of his biggest competitors this year, to the left and right of his party, though they are all primarily right-wing. He is playing on the fact that a lot of the public doesn't read into things much, they would see the red or light blue colors and associate him with them. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/labour-police-derbyshire-reform-conservatives-b2555306.html Technically, the conservatives are claiming it is within the law, but the people I saw this with had a grin on their faces because it's so blatant that it's funny. He's being investigated for possible election fraud, it was the gall of it that made me smile.

The video is an American speaking about European wars. Speaking to the Colonel, well duh of course leaders fight each other when people try to push them out of their place. Historically this is what European countries do when a significant European power tries to shift the balance of power inside Europe. They fight. The US is not driving the response; this video should help show you that because 30% of America is pro-Russia, and more like 40% tries to resist further aid. We Europeans just haven't had to fight in Europe for a while, but we are heading back to that time, with BRICS pushing for it, and America's reluctance. And Putin frankly keeps threatening everyone, committing cyber attacks, assassinations, etc, so he's getting what he's been pushing for; many European countries are openly hostile to him.

The West has allowed Ukraine to hit behind the border regions of Russia, so Russia can't just sit there and shell a city or keep invading repeatedly. TBH, I'd want them to hit every airfield in range, but that's not how this war is being fought; NATO is doing exactly what is required to make a stalemate, and no more than that. Romania is no more in danger than it was when Russia started this. NATO will keep Russia at a stalemate, and allow no more or less than is required to do it. Not to say there is no danger for all of us, but if the war remains in the east of Ukraine, it's a good distance from you. If it reaches the west of Ukraine, then the war, if it continues unchecked, is on your border and in your home. While it is far away, Romania is in little danger of any long-range strikes and is at a good distance from any potential Kaliningrad or Baltic flashpoint. But still, investing in the military right now is something every European country should be doing; they are just reluctant to do so because it cuts into everything else. - That is part of the reason they want Russia to stay where it is. Otherwise, they'll need to double their military's to defend a large border against a belligerent neighbor.

Thank you. I don't know much about Mexico living so far away; I understand the cartels are a problem, and I occasionally see a documentary, but not often. Your question would depend on how much someone identified their politicians with their faith. It is not one I can answer for Mexicans as a whole, even to offer a general overview. In England, for example, the question of which faith someone worships as a politician only carries a little weight. Like America, gender and skin color here carry more significance, but even then, not as much as, for example, ideology or scandal on stage greenish issues. For example, a leading Welsh politician was recently savaged for taking a donation from a firm that violated recycling laws twice: Atlantic Recycling. This will be discussed far more than his faith, skin color, or political ideology. It has been enough for a no-confidence vote; it's the difference between America's more stage orange population (who tolerate a bit more corruption) and England's at least thin veneer of trying to touch green publicly on things like recycling.

Growing up, people tend to role model their futures based on what they see in reality. I don't know Mexico's culture well enough. Is it full of optimism and opportunity?

I don't assign the full weight of independence to Belarus; they are a satellite or proxy state of Russia, but it is a violation of the treaty. It was assumed the weapons would be under Russian control, and I wouldn't be surprised if this statement was rolled back; it seems to be overstepping their authority. Either way, Poland needs them now. As covered above, NATO weapons can be used in Russian border region now, primarily to stabilize the Kharkiv frontline.

The rest of this post is here, sorry, as I was having problems with the quote system. Its going to be shorter as I lost the reply. We all live in the mind. Intuition alone doesn't help in discussions, as strangers don't trust or know you well enough to interpret it. Almost everything I talk about is systemic, I can go into more detail and often do, but it'll require deeper factual analysis for framing to be of use. Facts can be manipulated. Sourcing and intent matter, they can also be questioned and refined. Long-term climate destabilization, global wars, the authoritarian slide, general social unrest, and the undermining of the legal system are bigger long-term threats than anything, and most of these are linked together. The family dynamic is certainly a concern, but things like immigration are caused by the above; immigration is a symptom of danger or a lack of something. I am not American; my interest in your political race is summed up already above and in other posts here.

Let's break down what you said, as God is often used in this way to bolster an opinion: If I am looking from the Meta/God perspective and can't see something, I must be lost. This is an absolute statement referring to everyone else from or through the perspective of God (Everything). Hence, I made an absolute reply. A relative one would have been, I believe that it's in the best interests of the wider whole or God. This would be your relative opinion of the broader whole, or god, source, whatever. You could respond with, well, that was implied, but I try not to take my own invented implications from others' posts, only what they tell me. There are few times outside the spiritual forum that I will ever bring God into something unless someone else does so first. Most concepts we talk about are not enhanced by claiming God's perspective on something should be X or Y.

I don't know either. Because you brought up god. If you are going to address that concept, I am likely going to address it in the reply. I can be extremely direct and blunt. Usually, I try to meet someone where they are and add something to it. The game you've made up is a series of assumptions with no given factual basis. Polarization has nothing to do with child abuse. They are two entirely different concepts. You are speaking to someone who was abused as a child, not sexually, and I was in a traditional middle-class home. A traditional or nontraditional home doesn't make it a better one. People do. Too much polarization of the sexes, which forms a founding part of society, leads to an inflexible system, prone to inflexible outcomes - Please don't invent or add anything to this reply; it's just the line I've given you. Yes you can reverse this for the opposite problem. It is not the lesser evil. Its putting a criminal in as president. It means Russia and Europe are more likely to go to war, because Trump wants out of NATO and supports Russia. It's delaying and regresses the environmental changes needed to save the planet, which is the real meta-threat everyone everywhere should be voting on; you'll get 4 years of people in power who believe the fairytale of some big weather machine in someone's basement destroying the planet when their house gets burned down or flattened. - Just so they can avoid responsibility or doing anything about it. Then we have things like the Justice system in America getting overridden by Trump, causing it to lose legitimacy; there'll be four years of revenge and unrest. We have a further swing toward authoritarianism worldwide when we are already near fascism in many locations, and that means wider wars. Fascism needs opponents to exist. You are setting up your country and others to move further into an authoritarian state and the world into further tension. You are picking collective suffering on things like climate, homelessness, drugs, crime, war, etc., and you are giving me a series of non-supported feelings. You are talking to me about your feelings not facts. Your dislikes. I get it I have them to, I hate both of them. If you want a hundred things listed regarding the authoritarian shifts going on, I can certainly do them, or I can just ask you to show me what you think the actual left of the political spectrum is and where it exists. Then, put them against your argument that you dislike Biden because you believe a tolerance for other people's opinions on gender equals pedophilia. I hate Biden because he's a corporate stooge, too old to govern, who helped commit ethnic cleansing, and I can show you examples of this, but you can't with your examples. That's the difference. One is feelings; one is a fact.

@strika Propaganda - An opinion. Pedophile - Sources please. Meta/God - Your view is not the entirety of god. You are looking at a reflection of yourself, giving you a different opinion. The closer you get to being in a godlike state, the less you splinter other's perspectives from your own. You accept things for what they are. Vibration of the US? You look at Trump or Biden, the other parts of yourself you don't like, and say they are the bad guys, they are wrong, and the other is bad. That is what causes the splintering in your reality, not the fact that a difference of opinion exists.

Yes. 34 Felonies will give you jail time. But he won't go to jail no because America is becoming an authoritarian state, and its leaders are elevated to a status beyond the common man. The clever middle ground would be house arrest, but I would wager people won't pick that either.

@Gennadiy1981 It's possible to be convicted on all counts. I've been on three juries. One where all were held, one where some of the charges were held, and one where we threw it out. From what I've seen, Trump's lawyers are garbage at law; he keeps screwing over the good ones. Oh, and he can't keep his mouth shut for more than 5 minutes, meaning he constantly incriminates himself.

Egypt is keeping silent on this publicly from what I can tell, though there is some anger on it.

Because this is not historical it's going on right now. Civilians have been bombed by Putin for two and a half years, and his troops have committed numerous atrocities and war crimes against people they know and love. The region itself has constantly been invaded by Russia, and their governments have been messed around by Russian leaders. Germany is not pushing its influence out in the same way Russia is. Russia has never stopped doing this or evolved into a more stable or harmonious neighbor. Right now, it's creating a greater Russia and pushing its sphere of influence out, like China is; Germany is not. If Germany were acting like Hitler or Putin it'd get the same hate. Ukrainians got on just fine till Russia stirred up trouble with its Donbas militias. Almost everyone knew the Russian language; it wasn't two radically different cultures; there were a lot of EX-Soviet similarities. Now, there is hatred, which will exist for a few generations. I couldn't comment if the west and the east were specifically different to be in or around; I mean, the north and the south of England are somewhat different, which brings a bit of tension, primarily done in good humor. I hear it's the same in Italy; some of that is normal across different geography and local customs.

Israel - Egypt clash on the border. I've heard reports of 4 dead but its unconfirmed.

France officially sends instructors to Ukraine to train troops. NATO discusses closing the skies in the west of Ukraine to stop missile strikes and air attacks. France, Poland, the UK, and Estonia want to expand aid. The US and Germany oppose it. So I would really appreciate it if people could take things like this into account when they keep saying this is America vs Russia