zazen

Those patterns are definitely observable - they exist because human nature is constant enough to create probabilities, but consciousness adds variance. A good way to look at it is the container vs consciousness. The container shifts odds, but doesn't always determine destiny. Structures/systems/containers are the bones and meat suit (container) humans operate within, but it's the brain soup of the psyche, culture and consciousness that moves within it and directs towards better or worse outcomes. So a intersection of fatalism and agency. Structural constraints (nature) sets the stage (incentives and pressures) within which the psyche behaves (plays on the stage). Usually humans behave more similar than different, therefore patterns emerge. So I guess we could weight it more towards nature determining outcomes,than nurture shifting towards different outcomes. For example from Chat GPT: ''The term “Thucydides Trap” comes from political scientist Graham Allison, who examined 16 historical cases over the past 500 years in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power, ending in war. Here are the facts from his Harvard Belfer Center study (“Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”): Out of 16 cases, 12 ended in war, and 4 did not. That’s about 75% war, 25% peace.'' Variance showing not all power or positions of power are abused: You can be so honourable that even your rivals respect you. That’s why there are fewer “greats” however. As you point out observable patterns show up - because nature acts out the same more often under the same conditions than not. Exceptions get the adoration because they “transcended” nature or more so exercise it with some conscience (that separates man from animal). Man doesn’t simply default to nature but can determine and exercise will upon it - nature is the starting point not the end point. “When Saladin retook Jerusalem in 1187, he was in the same structural position as the Crusaders a century earlier: a victorious conqueror standing over a defeated, occupied city. The conditions were identical — military triumph, religious rivalry, opportunity for revenge. Yet his response could not have been more different. The Crusaders, when they took Jerusalem in 1099, massacred Muslims and Jews indiscriminately, bathing the city in blood. Saladin, in contrast, pardoned the city’s Christians, allowed orderly ransom for captives, invited Jews back to resettle, and guaranteed protection for holy sites.”

“Ukraine cannot win its war with Russia and should negotiate peace terms with the Kremlin, according to Britain’s most senior army officer. Reflecting on Ukraine’s chances of success against Russia, he said: “My view is that they would not win.” “Could not win, even with the right resources?” he was asked. “No,” he replied. Pressed further by The Independent, he was asked: “ Even with the right resources?” “No, they haven’t got the manpower,” the former commando said. In his first long-form podcast interview, Lord Richards, the only British officer to have commanded massed US troops at war since 1945, said the outlook for Ukraine was not good. “Unless we were to go in with them – which we won’t do because Ukraine is not an existential issue for us. It clearly is for the Russians, by the way,” he said on World of Trouble. “We’ve decided because it’s not an existential issue, we will not go to war." Sobering truth from 36min - 50min from UK’s top army officer. Another good one:

Thank you 😄 News from just today: Ceasefire broken already it seems.

Very relevant video on this topic of Kishore Mahbubani ( former president of UN Security Council) and a polish scholar discussing double standards and how to deal with Russia / China and Multipolarity.

That’s what I said - people just assume moral development by a single topic / metric - which is that their political system of governance is democratic. It’s like thinking because tribal communities in the jungle democratically vote on who the next elder is or who gets to eat the first bite of the hunt - that this means they are morally developed because they let everyone vote on things. Meanwhile they do ritual sacrifice like the Aztecs to get the rain god to give them good crops for next year lol

It’s not just lack of courage but also lack of foresight and cunningness which is required in geopolitics. This isn’t a game of jenga for the soft hearted liberal types who think their above survival and power dynamics - only to ruled by the power of US imperial and corporate interests at the cost of their own interests! You gotta be a Bhudda (benevolent) Machiavelli in this game or it’s simply not for you. https://x.com/acea_auto/status/1978800942859608529?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ From the European Automobile Manufacturing Association: “We are deeply concerned by potential significant disruption to European vehicle manufacturing if the interruption of Nexperia chips supplies cannot be immediately resolved.“ Also: https://x.com/theothersideru/status/1978559267423846507?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ “Italy stops extradition to Germany of a Ukrainian man suspected of masterminding Nord Stream sabotage A second Ukrainian suspect remains in custody in Poland, which is still reviewing a separate German extradition request This comes just a day after Poland demanded Germany stop its Nord Stream attack prosecutions, arguing they are not in the interests of Poland or NATO“ Self-mutilation and industrial sabotage lol exactly why I’m leaving Europe like many others. Can’t save the ideologically blinkered. Any wise and tactful leader would dedicate themselves to a path of extricating themselves from dependencies slowly whilst “maintaining” relationships with those you depend on until you get a stronger hand. You don’t just cold turkey yourself like it’s some smoking addiction - or else your Christmas turkey may literally be cold this winter for some! Arnaud on Nord stream commenting on a Polish minister who’s said Thank You America after it was blown up: https://x.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1979373210849443970?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ

EU hypocrisy. This is why people don’t simply say Israel’s crimes or US-Israel’s crimes (big/lil Satan) but Western crimes. Roughly 10% of the world population (the West) want to cozy up to the global majority (who are aware of colonialism and imperialism) and have them pick, plug into and stay within the Western led eco-political order vs BRICS building a new one. Yeah, I wonder why their hedging ..

Still formulating my thoughts on it but found this interesting. Here’s what I think so far: A sort of spiritual and spiral dynamics supremacism exists that subtly degrades in their own grading - other civilisations and “religion”. This has been used by empire to justify empire and still is today via interventionist neoliberal democracy spreading. Just like the idea of coming from below vs from above - I think one can approach “organised religion” from above also. After studying plenty of non-duality, Osho (in my anti-religion phase lol) etc I actually came to understand religion (its depth) a lot more and find an appreciation for it. I get that religious literalism and superstition can be irrational because it takes what should be a metaphor for reality as reality itself - but can’t crystal alignment new ageism be just as irrational? Muslim prayer according to the suns timing is seen as lesser than Sadhguru prompting seekers to pray at the “auspicious” time of 6:20pm local time..because Western new age has validated one but not the other. Marcus Aubrey needs to sign off on fajr (Islamic sunrise prayer). At the same time - I don’t see any of these as total nonsense either. They can be ritual or psychics guard rails, as long as they aren’t mistaken for reality but ways of engaging with reality ie the menu is not the food. Organised religion basically socialised spirituality into a social operating system for society. The issue comes when the two get conflated (spirituality with society/survival) which unfortunately happens for many. But awakening to that doesn’t negate the value in that organisation or that one can engage in society from a place of spirituality - which is what aspects of organised religion try to inculcate. It’s like spiritual libertarianism, similar to political libertarianism - attractive from the get go (because freedom always is), but then you realise the short comings in a lack of organisation scaled up to and extended towards a social order itself. Humans can’t unneed what they need - one of those needs is structure. We literally are the “formless” existing in the structure of “form” to begin with. So when societies develop structure it’s shallow to view them as mere constructs or un-realities that need transcending - as if you can escape form altogether. Even an enlightened master is in-forming you of his awakening, in the form of words, through the form of his body, before he leaves that very form we think needs transcending. Where are we transcending to? Can you go anywhere but here? It may be semantics but perhaps the word transform is more accurate. As in transforming how to live and engage with form, not seeking to escape form all together. What we have is a formless reality (Oneness, God) that transcends the duality of form - but we don’t transcend that form, only transform in it by awakening to that which transcends it. In the same way, we can be awakened in “organised religion” - while realising it as a spiritual form-ality. Just as the world of form (material) is itself a formality (means) for the formless (spirit) to live through and enjoy. The form of religion can then be approached from above as having a strong belief (in an operating system) held loosely, whilst its essential kernel of spiritual truth being grasped tightly and in total. There is a meaning people and societies find in all this that shouldn’t simply be discarded or taken for granted. People find meaning in having a means to an end (purpose), but how is meaning sustained after reaching that end? By having that end be endless - which is God itself. That makes life not just a means but meaningful for many.

Being a democracy doesn’t automatically confer the moral development people think it does - this is simply conflation. The US was a democracy when slavery was a thing. It’s a political system of organising society - not a moral barometer. Western propaganda has people dick ride democracy as a justification for empires actions against “different” systems that require liberating - only the oligarchs pockets in these so called democracies get liberated. Bae be like

Ewsome Newsome seems authentic

Infighting with some group supported by Israel: Divide and rule, or pretext for continued ops.

Agreed - but on a different timeline. They literally needed (past tense) to cleanse Palestinians post Holocaust (existential survival logic) - in order to settle a majority Jewish state in a majority Arab land. But today they have a state, one of the strongest militaries in the region, nuclear deterrence and superpower backing. So the existential survival logic doesn't exist today, only a existential threat to their supremacy and domination beyond their own state. They play conflation Olympics between survival and supremacy - hence the deceptiveness on which an entire thread on the forum exists lol. Though I'm sure in some minds they do feel existential threatened - largely self inflated by their own propaganda, past trauma/paranoia and worldview - but speaking objectively it doesn't exist. Bro we know not all Israeli's are as twisted as the far right but to mention it every chance with a disclaimer is tedious business. Israels predicament is that it was a settler colonial project in response to a horrific Nazi project, but a settler colonial project that happened at the wrong time in history - during a time when de-colonization was happening and where that sort of way of doing things was phasing out of global norms. This means that even if they achieve their aims (largely have) they will be hated by the world for doing so. It’s got a moral and legitimacy crisis for continuing to exist the way it is by not settling the injustice it caused at its inception and continuing that injustice till today. Zio's missed the boat.

What do progressives want? One can be authentic about their values while being authentic about how to realistically achieve the closest version of them in the real world. Values are aspirations, not expectations we should impose on a messy world in which we will imperfectly attain them. Sometimes (a lot of the time) you don't get good things by sounding or solely doing what looks good on the surface. This isn't a moral purity test, life isn't only real social (socialist) dynamics where we can sit in a hippie camp and sing, but is where real power dynamics need to be accounted for. Powers need to be buffered by principles, but power dynamics shouldn't be denied all together or the reality of them. Soft hearted values mean shit without the hard reality of having the power to execute on and maintain them - but the liberal reflex is opposed to the methods because it looks ''mean'', even if the method is the means to the closest version of their ideal ends (social welfare, good living standards, safety from crime, equality under the law) See what Singapore became from nothing and what it took. Governance and civilization building isn't about political purity tests and authenticity as much as it is about political pragmatism, boldness and a benevolent wielding of power. Philosopher king type sheeet. Just came across a Bloomberg article yesterday on Singapore - one of the best pension systems in the world: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/these-are-the-world-s-best-and-worst-pensions-in-2025#:~:text=Singapore has broken into the top tier of an annual,CFA Institute Global Pension Index. Again - what do progressives want?

Likewise not a fan but since we're here - we need to also take into account time scale (not just scale of destruction) and proportionality. Even if we matched the civilian death rate of Gaza (70k) to Ukraine - Gaza's population is 2 million vs Ukraine's 40 million (though a lot fled). The time scale in which those deaths occurred is in nearly half the time (3.5 yrs for Ukraine war vs 2 for Gaza). The per capita civilian death toll is approximately: Ukraine - 35 per 100k inhabitants Gaza - 3'000 per 100k inhabitants Iraq - 600 per 100k inhabitants For the moral lens, the context of these wars matters also. Ukraine is state vs state (great power proxy) war, Gaza is a state vs stateless people ''war'' in which non-state actors have arisen from those conditions to fight the state that denies their people one. Iraq was a empire state (US) going to war against another state on the other side of the planet and based upon fabricated lies. Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza have at least some security logic, US's Iraq war has none except empire logic for empire gain - and based on lies which is especially dark and twisted - destabilising the region into a hornets nest of extremists. Regardless of Russia's historic rhetoric about Ukraine - the security calculus exists independent of it and would be responded too. Which is why I say there is at least ''some'' security logic that can't be denied. Even if Ukraine was as different as Mexico and culturally-historically divorced from Russia - the security dilemma still exists of a great rival power encroaching upon you in a vulnerable geography that's been a past invasion corridor due to the lengthy border and flat lands that allows for it. This is why it's understandable for many, yet not excusable. The fact Ukraine is a civilizational kin state only makes things worse - just as Pakistan being turned into a battering ram against India would be taken personally by India, or Taiwan against China - by rival powers who wanted to contain either of them. Israel's situation can also be traced to at least some security logic (Hamas, Hezbollah, supported via Iran etc). But it's not a existential threat in the same way great power competition is - its a threat of exhaustion from a unresolved political issue that's trying to be resolved via a military solution. The security is also self-perpetuating and exists because occupation and dispossession never ended. They equate the control of those people (fighting for their rights but being gas lighted as terrorist savages for it) with survival, when controlling (perhaps cleansing) them is what's causing the issue to begin with. It's got a element of security logic but is more supremacy logic. US-Iraq - empire logic for gain. Israel-Gaza - supremacy logic with some security logic that's exaggerated. Russia-Ukraine - security logic with some historic rhetoric that's bogus and irrelevant to the modern day. Interestingly just came across Putin speaking on Iraq compared to Ukraine: https://x.com/RussiaIsntEnemy/status/1978500666608742545 Name of the account is so propagandic lool

Baffles me too: https://x.com/ireallyhateyou/status/1978579570333757891?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ