Breakingthewall

Jiang desires so hardly the fall of US that he really believes the worst scenario possible, but that would be absolute political suicide for Iran, handing Israel the key to legitimacy in the Gulf. The fanaticism of Muslim regimes is always overestimated, when they are usually corrupt regimes that only seek to perpetuate themselves in power, like any other dictatorship. Power is power, it's equal for everyone. Have they filled the Strait of Hormuz with mines in revenge for the assassination of the Ayatollah? Why haven't they destroyed any desalination plants yet? What are they waiting for? I think that anyone in Iran who ask himself: what is the better option in all senses now? Would answer: change. Because the other options are catastrophic

I think it was, but we never will know it.

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel. I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, new countries were created, and as is inevitable, wars became endemic, as happened in Europe for so many centuries. The US is a stabilizing agent, whether you like it or not. Without the US, Iran, Iraq, turkey, Egypt, Syria, would have fought for power, conquering other countries and clashing incessantly. The US doesn't act as a peacemaker out of kindness, obviously, but because the region has oil, which is essential to the global economy. It's unacceptable that the most valuable resource is in the hands of medieval warlords, or if you prefer, kingdoms like European of XIX century. If the US hadn't been the dominant power, it would have been the USSR, China, or whoever had the military capacity to impose order. Perhaps you think the world today is horrible and the West a malevolent demon. Who are you comparing them to? The Ottoman Empire? Perhaps Japan imperial? If power becomes vacant, who fills it? Righteous saints seeking justice? Saddam Hussein? Gaddafi? The west and the east. Ottoman, Chinese, japan. Chinese just in china of course, but china is an empire, and civil wars caused 25 million of deaths in short periods sometimes. You focus your attention in west empire because it is what remains, not because it's the only I don't hate islam, I think it's a stupidity that is a burden on humanity. It's like if England had a Mormon dictatorship obsessed with preventing people from masturbating because baby Jesus cries, and promoting cousin marriage to lower IQ. I'd think it was utter stupidity. Mental freedom is essential, but it's just my opinion. Of course, a lot of tension and human greed, balance is difficult. It doesn't mean that china is gandalf the white fighting against sauron the black America Satan. Don't you see that it's a miopic view? Russia cooperates because was weak, when it was strong, it conquered east Europe and submit it with iron fist. Sure and US did the same with Marshall plan and more , China dominates with a soft touch because it can't do so with an iron fist, like with the Uyghurs. It's like when Orange calls you to try and get you to leave Vodafone, all friendly gestures. But when Orange is a monopoly, things aren't so friendly anymore. Sure, cooperate after 25 years saying America Satan and then falsifying an elections. Maybe US want capitulation according to your view, but Saudi Arabia for example has the right to sell oil to china if they want, have sharia as main law, join brics, etc. Is it capitulation? No, it's simply that the strongest empire at the moment will not leave its economy in the hands of unpredictable actors. The transition must be smooth, not abrupt. Direct confrontation is not the intelligent solution.

Sure, but those political decisions include expanding its area of influence, financing terrorism and guerrilla groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Polisario Front in Morocco, and basically anything that weakens its Sunni enemies, making it an aggressive actor trying to dominate the region. So it's normal that other countries do the same and that clashes occur. According to you, the Iranian regime is legitimate and the other Arab regimes and Israel are not. Well, that's your opinion. The reality is that in that region, what matters isn't who is more legitimate, but who is stronger. Seems that for you irán and everyone who fights again the great Satan is noble and fair, in Iran they celebrate free elections, Hamas are noble fighters, etc. Well, it's a way to see it, but it's not very objetive. If you listen other people who's in than frequency, you are in a echo chamber and in a giving moment you could think that the ayatollah regime is a feminist democracy that is in poverty due the Americans and bibi

Then , since there was a Western-backed coup in 1953, amidst the tensions of the Cold War. Twenty-six years later, when Iran had a flourishing economy and a developing liberal society, the ayatollahs staged a coup, establishing an Islamic theocracy. The reason for this was the coup that had occurred 26 years earlier. So why didn't they reinstate democracy? Let me guess: because America Satan

If a global power controls the economy in great stent, and you're a weak country with resources, and your core values are hatred of that power and the disappearance of its ally as a nation, you risk this kind of thing. The US doesn't steal oil from Saudi Arabia or the UAE; in fact, they sell a large portion of their oil to China. But what a global power won't tolerate is a direct challenge sustained for decades. What would be Iran's problem if it recognized Israel, engaged in dialogue with the US, and acknowledged them as partners? Simply an identity crisis. You could say: the US is a state that steals resources from other states, leaving them in poverty. But this isn't true. If Iran were to cooperate, its economy would improve. The problem is that many Muslim countries base their identity on direct confrontation. Without it, their identity collapses. Obviously, the US is abusive in many ways, but so is China when it benefits from it, as is France in Africa, Russia when it has the opportunity, and all the others. The point is not categorize us as Satan but trying to get the best deals possible for your people

It seems logical that the Iranian people would want regime change after 47 years of theocracy. It's a rather dystopian situation in which the ruling elites have no secondary education, only Koranic schooling. Instead of focusing on economic and social development, they focus on the destruction of the Israeli Satan, that has no direct relationship with them. It's safe to assume that many people might consider this a misguided approach.

If a Muslim government collaborates with the West, as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Morocco do, it's not so dramatic, is it? What is the need for people like Saddam, the ayatollahs, or Gaddafi to constantly challenge power? Perhaps they seek the freedom of their people against the evil aggressor? Or could it be that they can't sleep thinking about the Palestinians they are expelling from their lands? Perhaps, but it seems more like something else. Since they are dictators who have seized power by force and subjugate their people by carrying out massacres at the slightest sign of political opposition, anti-American rhetoric makes them appear as noble Davids facing the avaricious, hook-nosed Goliath, and thus their people, who have the mental development of an 11-year-old, love them and see them as legitimate. Sure, Gaddafi was in his right trying do displace the us dollar creating the dirham gold. And maybe Saddam was right launching scuds to Israel and invading Kuwait, but the point is that you frontally challenge the power, then what do you expect? Hugs? Or maybe that they say: oh well, it's their right, we are evil Jews and we should let them displace the dollar, because it's fair and our hearts are pure and noble, so justice is first, or interest is second, we are the Knights of the Round Table defending orphans. Well, it seems the world doesn't work that way. Knowing it, declaring that Israel must disappear of the map and burning American flags every day seems good to fool fools, but bad for feed your people

Why would do it? To laugh while petting cats? In other hand, it seems very convenient for the Iranians to show the evilness of the demons. A school of little girls. Sure. Well, not sure, just 99% sure

Who believes that nonsense about the girls? The Iranians say that to smear the Israelis, and the newspapers repeat it like parrots because that's what people want to hear.

Tell a 15 year old guy with brain cancer what God can and cannot do in the Middle East. Life is dance of Kali and we should open our hearts to destruction, because it's glorious, same than creation.

I think It's not a good idea because the word "God" evokes a creator. In the absence of limits, there can be no creator; there is only flow. A creator would be an absolute limit. The idea is dissolving the limits, not creating them. Without limits there is no center, not agency, just reality. Then you could say what I am is the reality.

Listening is interesting; it's about understanding from where the other person is expressing. They usually speak from a place of affirmation of identity, which is extremely boring, since conversation becomes a feedback loop. If you're not playing that game, it becomes flat. There are other people who speak from their own truth, but to do so, they need to be in touch with it and not be like a constructing device identity. Usually humans use a huge part of their processing capacity to build identity, then the most usual is finding people that apparently are talking to you but really are talking with themselves

Don't forget that the holy ayatollah, in addition to resisting the evil Jews, also massacred Sunnis in Syria to spread Shiism, and promoted violence in all middle east against sunnis The problem with your Fremen is that they need the Harkonnens, and if there aren't any, they'll find them. Violence is their basis of legitimacy. What is Iran's regime without their mortal enemies? They need them, because without them, they are dispensable, unnecessary. They fuel hate rhetoric to perpetuate their power, because it's their identity. The problem is that then this happens, and everything are complains and victimhood. Why if they would focused in the prosperity of their nation instead of feeding hate? But that's a mess, so difficult. Much more easy yelling america Satan and do nothing productive

The point is that whoever takes power shouldn't be an absolute enemy of the US and Israel, as Iran has been for 47 years. I don't think Trump decided this; he knows nothing about politics. The real power in the US decides, and he obeys. If Iran is achieved that is not hostile to the US, even subservient behind the scenes, the benefit for the US would be enormous: control of oil. China is unstoppable, and no one doubts it, but the US wants to prolong its hegemony as much as possible, which translates into wealth, and they know that China will have to swallow this pill because China is playing a game of patience in which balance is essential.

You're not being ironic? 😅 I'm glad it resonates. I try to remove the personal or emotional aspect from the equation to understand as clearly as possible how politics works, which is an expression of how human beings work. It's fascinating to see how highly functional, complex structures form using individuals driven by basic passions as their raw material; how these individuals connect like processors to energize the political entity, how the entity provides them with the identity they need, and how the entities relate to one another. All these related entities create the necessary tension for the system to be dynamic and progress exponentially toward brutal levels of complexity. It's the same as the evolution of biological life on another scale; reality seeking coherent patterns of complexity as far as possible.

Going crazy is basically lying to yourself to adapt reality to your emotional needs. At a high degree, you're schizophrenic; at a lower degree, you're like most people. Sanity is eliminating your emotional need of the equation, which clouds your vision, thus restoring clarity.

The US and Israel have recognized this moment as their last chance to neutralize Iran, as its alliance with China and Russia grows increasingly solid and open. If they don't attack now, in a few years Iran will be far better armed, Russia might be in a position to provide direct support, unlike now, when it's preoccupied with Ukraine, and China could supply state-of-the-art weaponry and satellite support. Israel cannot allow this; it's an existential threat, and the US would be severely harmed by a strong Iran dominating the Middle East. It's now or never for both, and they won't stop until the Iranian regime falls. Is it fair or unfair? That's irrelevant; it's strategic. We'll see what Iran's capacity to respond is, but knowing that the US and Israel are gambling with their future, the outcome is inevitable. Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz, but by doing so, it will harm China, its essential ally, the most. China will be harmed if the Iranian regime falls, but it will be harmed even more if there is a long war and economic collapse, since China doesn't want power but economic development. The fall of the ayatollahs will only be a minor setback, insignificant in their 40-year plans; therefore, logically, China would want a quick end to the conflict. It will protest vehemently and do nothing. We'll see what Iran can do. Perhaps more than it seems, perhaps it is much weaker than we think. The best thing for the world is for it to fall as soon as possible.

It's simple. There are people who are left-wing and anti-American, so for them, the US and Israel are always evil incarnate, no matter what. Then there are other people who are right-wing, and for them, Muslims are evil demons and the US and Israel are the forces of good, no matter what. It's like in Lord of the Rings: Sauron is bad, Gandalf is good. It's simple! They are simple people and they like everything to be simple; that's how they feel safe. In this forum, they lean more to the left because spiritual people tend to be more left-wing, so they support the Palestinians against Israel. It's like supporting a football team, a matter of identity. It's funny because they think they're analyzing reality when what they're really doing is trying to reinforce their identity, but they can't see it because are emotional, that's why they need to reinforce their identity. Its like a circle of, let's say, not objectivity, to be kind

That's true, but it's funny the fact that no one mentions Chinese oppression of the Uyghurs, who number 30 million and have been Muslim since the 16th century. China is systematically erasing their identity following a clear and well-defined program, and is declaring Islam a mental illness. The entire Islamic world hates Jews for the abuses they have committed again Palestinian, but no one in the Muslim world says anything about China, which is erasing a Muslim nation from the history. Isn't that interesting?

Yes, People turn to spirituality because things have been difficult for them; they haven't been able to adapt, succeed in relationships and careers, they're depressed, and they see spirituality and enlightenment as a way to overcome all that with an affordable work. Then they convince themselves that they are consciousness ,enlightened, whatever that implies "better than the normies", and thus their ego is at ease.

Agree with that. To begin serious spiritual work, you need to be consistent, focused, and have great clarity in your worldly life. But usually, the opposite happens: since your worldly life is a mess, you throw yourself into spirituality, and then, well, you know how it goes.

The war was decided before negotiations even began, before the protests in Iran started. The question here is what China will do. Most likely, it won't do anything; nobody wants a large-scale conflict. There's much more to lose than to gain. If I had to bet, I'd say the Iranian regime will collapse soon, but who knows, maybe things will turn out differently.

Maybe that idea about reincarnation is true, but maybe it isn't. We don't know the structure of reality.