Lyubov

I have no clue why Russia trusts China lol they are about to be exploited far more by them than the west ever could https://amp.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/27/partnership-is-much-better-for-china-than-it-is-for-russia

It’s just really uncertain at the moment how this will play out. We do know they have done some damage and will have affected the life of millions of normal Russians, even the rich and ruling class will have felt it. Has this swayed public opinion of Putin? It’s too early to tell. Some think it hasn’t and has only made the more conservative wing (Russians not from Moscow, people over 40, etc) double down. Younger generation is greatly affected by it and is in the process of brain draining the country by fleeing abroad. I think when some of the dust settles they absolutely will have stunted the development of Russia some and curbed some influence. Also I think it will have kept this conflict from spreading past Ukraine. We will have to just wait and see.

A no fly zone would be a disaster though. It’s preposterous why this is even being talked about by some. It would not be possible to enforce. I don’t want the USA playing world police and I don’t want to possibly see ww3 start.

No dude, it’s just silly some of the stuff that is considered thread worthy here. It’s like reading joe rogans thoughts on covid. It’s superfluous and just not discussion worthy. I’m well aware I’m gate keeping now which is probably equally as annoying.

I read this, it’s quite good. You can tell their autocratic approach has affected the chain of command and how these complex logistic exercises play out. Russia does not have the foundational system to pull something off like this from what it looks like. They can maybe go scorched earth which I wouldn’t put it past Putin if this starts to threaten his position. Chemical weapons ? He didn’t have a problem with them in Syria when their puppet sicko dropped them on civilians.

The fog of war is strong right now. It’s really hard to know what exactly has happened until we can look back and assess it from multiple angles. While I’m sure the Twitter cheerleaders for Ukraine are over blowing their victories, I also now have my reservations of how capable the Russian army is after some absolutely laughable and baffling blunders. 2-3 days my foot… even if it’s a scorched earth approach.

Every new age idiot with a few subs will get platformed on this forum lol It’s probably the only thing I dislike about this place. Who cares? There are far more intelligent takes

Thanks man !

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BREAK NEWS: Twitter is a dumpster fire and you should wait for trusted official sources to cross check and publish information.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin A great article by a respected scholar on the war. He believes Russia is favored to win this war. A good balance to all the Twitter stuff saying how well Ukraine is doing.

It’s because lots of their military budget is taken through corruption starting from the top down. You can assume for every million allotted for the military there, some percentage is taken before the money is actually put to use how originally intended. It’s why there are reports of Russia’s land equipment being poorly maintained and serviced. Hard to keep maintenance up when that money gets eaten away at by corruption. It’s why they tout their nukes so much and make so much propaganda about their army. They know it’s actually not as good as it really is so they have to compensate.

My chess example was just there as a way to illustrate he is making ridiculous and sloppy mistakes. A more apt chess example that’s similar to what Russia is doing would be losing material unnecessarily and giving away lots of hanging pawns until the timer runs out or there is a draw on the board. Which just goes against the image Putin has cultivated as a cool headed, strategic mastermind. There is legacy at play here. I do think it isn’t too presumptuous to assume that they were expecting to play a flawless and beautiful game. Lots of evidence indicates they were expecting a quick siege and less resistance from the locals. With the way things have unfolded this was not some sort of “dirty bomb” approach where Putin planned to be like some ruthless dictator and just throw half his men into the fire like a mad king. Putin is much more calculated and caring I would say. Russian military casualties are a huge red button issue in Russia and one of the few things that actually hurts his approval there apparently (read this once). I don’t think it’s too presumptuous at all to call what’s unfolding a strategic blunder on Russia’s part. We will have to sit and see what happens. No one has a crystal ball so of course I put little weight into what pundits predict.

I made it out fine. In Europe now. Kinda sad about what is going on. Also been forced to rethink my long term plans. I hope to go back to Russia one day. It’s actually an awesome place to live if you are in the capital or spb.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/ Francis Fukuyama’s take on all of this. Those that know him know he is a very nuanced and interesting thinker on this. He is predicting a Russian defeat.

Because no rational or intelligent military strategist would of put their military into a position that Russia currently has theirs in under the circumstances they were in. It’s like moving your king in front of your pawns. People who know chess will instantly spot the blunders and know there are systemic problems on Russia’s side, even if they don’t know all the details and the exact inside story. It’s just such a complete blunder that it exposes all the issues in Russia’s autocratic power structure. Putin has filled his regime with imbeciles so no one was ever clever enough to overthrow him. His defense minister is a construction foreman. In turn this has lead to it hurting the synergy, progress and development of the government. Top down autocratic power structures have their pluses and minuses as well as their Achilles’ heel when it comes to their survival and this is such a situation that’s exposed a lot of this. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin was being fed all sorts of bullshit about how modern his military is then not taking into account all the corruption going on bellow him. No one knows exactly what’s going on in the kremlin but this has clearly exposed they have some serious problems coming from the top down.

The problem that I have with them turning off monetization with all Russian accounts (saw this on the news) is that a lot of opposition voices and thinkers are affected by this which is unfortunate. There is good content coming out of Russia that is anti war and targets the Russian population. These people who are making content that isn’t supportive of an autocratic invasion and trying to expand the minds of the population are now being punished as well.

Russia is blocking all of meta now except WhatsApp lol

The more I’m seeing this war unfold the more I’m seeing what a logistical disaster and clown show this is on the Russian side. I do wonder what would or could have occurred (hypothetically) if a younger Putin was ruling Russia. I don’t think he would have invaded. I get the sense Putin is getting old and there is just something incredibly dangerous about a man reaching the age of “I’ve had enough, I don’t give a fuck anymore.” This is just very much unlike Putin. He had a reputation for being a sort of cautious and strategic mastermind. This is very much a legacy play now for him I think as well where he’s sort of painted himself into a corner. I wonder if he remotely envisioned what’s going on as a possibility before invading or he found himself with his pants down on accident.

This less about understanding Putin and is now 5 days old but it gives a decent rundown of the more micro logistics of the battle itself and why it’s been a disaster for Russia so far. Hope they do a new one soon.

If we were to take a really broad sort of overarching geographic meta perspective on this I think people will notice that a lot of this comes down to the fact that Russia is both a)geographically very vulnerable to western forces, where they can easily roll into the steppe. And b) Russia’s level of development is in contradiction / vindication of what lies west to them. Countries around them democratizing directly threatens the overall societal structure of Russia. So of course Russia wants some control over these neighboring states. This conflict very much boils down to a clash of stages. Orange center to the west, blue center to the east.

Eh, again I think this soft power argument does have some truth but it’s somewhat overblown cause Russia definitely had some cards of their own. Russia could of played to their strengths and avoided a lot of this if they focused fully on getting Europe hooked on Russian gas. Finish Nordstream 2. Putin coulda sat in his mansion and watched Europe guzzle away and further dismantle their nuclear and coal power plants. Green initiatives were pushed there which were kinda built in the EU around getting energy from Russia. In a way this was half done but I think some imperialist intentions are at play here. I’m not sure I entirely buy the argument Russia woulda been a non aggressor if NATO didn’t expand.

If Russia wasn’t a corrupt security concern for all the smaller countries around it that willfully and freely joined NATO for their own protection none of this would have happened. It cuts both ways. The thing is the whole “Russia wouldn’t have invaded if NATO...” was kinda vindicated when Putin set up a narrative in his 45 minute speech where he basically wanted to rebuild the Russian empire, not even the Soviet Union. So whose to say they wouldn’t eventually have had imperialist intentions some 30 odd years later after the Soviet Union and hypothetically, NATO, ended in lockstep.

It’s hard to really tell that. He’s ruthless for sure but I don’t think he needs to be “pathologised.” Any dictator in an authoritarian society will come off like a psycho to outside eyes m. If you’re part of the mafia you will have to grow some very thick skin. Examining his overall development is bette to understand him than looking for conventional mental disorders to label him with. I’ve listed some reasons but I think he’s feeling older and some physiological changes have taken place in him. He’s isolated a ton these days. I could easily see his survival fears and his resentment of the west growing out of proportion during this time. He has no one to counter or challenge him when he creeps towards stuff like this.