Lyubov

Political order and Political Decay to understand up until 2016, then from there the author’s model breaks down and it’s up to us to apply what we are doing here to understand.

This is the problem with Republicans. They are completely incapable of long term systems thinking, they are stupid undeveloped people. “You have to start somewhere” so short term political wins is better than a near certain clash between Europe and Russia in 5 years from now? It’s not in good faith. What evidence is there anything about this conflict coming from Trump or Putin that they are compromising in good faith?

Putin wants to bring the borders back of the Soviet Union and he will use violence against small NATO countries if he thinks there won’t be consequences.

Why would Trump serve Putin? What is the benefit or cause for Trump to take orders from Putin as if he is beholden to him for something?

what alternative?

The result of this? We don't know because we don't have a crystal ball, the fine balance of everything is being shaken up. There will probably be more conflict but also some problems might be resolved from it. We will have to see. I think USA will become weaker overall and there will be zones of influence instead of the globe working towards rules based order. We already have different internet from China, we will see the China sphere expand when they move into Taiwan, USA will throw fits with it's democratic partner states like Canada and Mexico who it no wants more control over, and Russia will regain some territory from the Soviet times and have more say over Europe, which will develop it's own army and potentially meet Russia in war in the baltics or Ukraine for a second time, I don't see this peace deal lasting if there is one.

I personally think the best way of understanding this is not by throwing around labels like devil or saying Trump is a Putin puppet. Trump aligns with Putin because he has a dictator perspective, he sees himself above the law and respects Putin for that. Trump has a isolationist world view because he thinks the ally countries are ripping the USA off and keeping tensions between Russia going. He has a very simplistic world view of things about how he wants to throw blame at anyone bringing complexity and nuance to an issue and hearing all sides and would rather just side with who he vibes with. It's the same as voters, how they vote off vibes, Trump lives his life the same way when it comes to policy and governing. He thinks slimming the country down from these engagements will make America more effective and he doesn't have the development to actually realize governing these issues requires deep complex thinking and coalition building. He's on the side of Israel and sends weapons there because their lobby buys his campaign, Ukraine doesn't do that and isn't able to lobby the same. He also sees the modern Europe world view as a threat to his authoritarian style, which they back Ukraine, and Trump is a petty contrarian as well so of course he's going to just play big table bully. Trump would rather just cut some dirty big power deal with Russia or China without any dialogue rather than work with smaller ally countries under the democratic process which is what's necessary in order to have so many allies and alliances like the USA does/did.

Europe equally fucked up as well. Trump has been salivating over leaving NATO for ages. It should have been a wake up call the moment you saw he was running again to get your shit in order, way before that, back in 2022. It’s time for Europe to build an army. Not these stupid summits which they never do anything after.

I mean, I don’t entirely disagree with you up until your last sentence which is pointless and a bit ridiculous to say. I don’t see how giving up on Ukraine keeps China from starting a war with Taiwan. This literally shows that with the switch in administration, support can be dropped. Ukraine being sold out basically means all China has to do is start shit and wait for the American public to get tired. Trump won’t do shit about anything. NATO is dead at this point. USA has tarnished its image beyond repair after Trump diplomacy. I don’t even see how anyone can see this leading to diminished perks for us as citizens. I await the eventually war in Asia and USA citizens just sitting by surprised.

It’s difficult to have a productive discussion on left criticisms usually because a lot of contrarian and dishonest Trumpist brain rot capitalizes on this. Self reflection of the left is something that should only take place and be open to people on this level of development, otherwise lower stage right wing weaponize it.

You label it as escalating, I see it as defending against an aggressor country that attacked another country. You don’t get to play the victim card when you yourself are the aggressor. In addition Putin is the one escalating while Ukraine is defending, the very logic of escalating doesn’t apply when you are the defending country having another one come into your land and try to topple you.

I think Trump will try something when it’s time for the next election. He will either try to call the elections off and put JD in as a fake president while he rules de facto or he will try to twist things so radically and make up some reason to stay in. And it will cause some crisis because the entire system is grid locked and rotted. Jan 6th basically proves the entire Republican base thinks he’s above the law and can do anything. He will try something again most likely.

Dems really need a strong leader, the entire dem campaign should be about arresting and imprisoning Trump, they don’t play dirty enough.

Because it’s clear these peace talks are disingenuous and ignorant altruism born from the ineptitude and near sidedness of the Trump administration looking for a quick political victory. This is an issue that requires contemplation and a strong coalition of everyone involved especially NATO and the countries that comprise of it. Arrogance and overconfidence from the orange man, repeating the same silly talking points that “this never would have happened if I was president” which his brain rotted moronic voters eat up. Just a terrible way to go about ending a massive and nuanced conflict that could spiral again into a bigger one, which if Trump does indeed rush this and give concessions to Russia there’s a good chance Russia will attack Ukraine again and this time Europe will probably get dragged in. No one is against peace talks. It’s just clear to anyone with half a brain who has done some research on every aspect of this that the USA is going about this the entirely wrong way. I don’t have a crystal ball but given the damage that has been done to the trust of NATO / USA, Putin is going to rebuild his army and test NATO in 5-10 years form now, probably attack a Baltic state or enter Ukraine with European peace keeping troops, and dare the USA to respond, which they probably won’t given the direction this administration is going. No one is against peace talks, they are against appeasing an aggressor that has zero intention of peace, Russia is clearly not serious at all about peace talks, they want capitulation. Russia knows it can sit and play the attrition game and it’s only a matter of time for the grid locked and dysfunctional western political process to fuck up and fall apart. So what does that mean for the future? Europe building an army, Ukraine a constant conflict zone and the real possibility of Europe vs Russia in the next 5-10 years.

It’s blatant corruption but I do think Elon has some higher values compared to say an oil tycoon who just rapes the land. He helped create a EV car company and has spoken on climate change. He’s definitely corrupted but I would rank him above most Trump bureaucrats based on development. Much of the Trump camp is pure fundamentalist brain rot. Elon has stooped down to them but still serves some purpose.