HelluvaGuy

Let's see if I have magic prediction powers or not.

But that was before Roe v Wade was struck down, so ya never know.

It's obviously your business what you do with your vote but... what's even the point of voting for a 3rd party if you know it isn't going to do anything or make a meaningful difference?

I would treat SD like you would a map. I think Leo also said this in his SD Video series that "knowing SD is like the difference between operating in the world with a map vs without one". Therefore, it's just silly to criticize a map for being a "limited lens" - of course it's limited, that's the whole point! It's still highly useful. Just because your map of the city doesn't have all the exact buildings and statues on them doesn't mean you can't use it to navigate the city. Do not expect a model to do something it is simply not designed to do. The map is not the territory. Also agree with this 100 percent. The idea that anybody watches Leo's content and dabbles a bit in spirituality now means they are solidly in tier two is laughable. This is just peak self-deception.

You misspelled depressing.

This might be his thinking process, but it's a shoddy ratinalization. Incumbent presidents rarely get challenged in the primaries. Just 4 years ago when Trump was running for re-election and was challenged by Bill Weld, despite of that several states just decided not to hold primary elections (and that was before COVID hit). But of course this is hardly a problem for Kennedy because he wasn't the one affected by this at the time.

Considering how close the margins are in the electoral college, yeah, this could be bad. But it's far too early to get all gloomy and doomeristic. Trump was shot like a month ago and everbody was talking about how "oh this totally changes the race now trump will win" and then the polls barely moved. Fair enough, but since 2020 it's the democrats who have been overperforming the polling expectations, whetever it be the 2022 midterms which went relatively well or other special elections held around the country. Hopefully, this is good omens for the presidential election.

You really think so? Biden already endorsed Harris. You think there is going to be some big fight over who gets it?

Are you saying there is no poverty in the west? You'd be surprised.

Agree with this. "No Boundary" is a good start.

Classic pre/trans fallacy. And the next thing you know that same child went to the store and got upset because their parents refused to purchase them some candy. Oh imagine the screaming and the yelling......

The better question is what are you doing debating atheists on reddit lol (especially since they don't REALLY exist, right?) This feels like a pseudo discussion. This should not be about blind belief in God (which really gives you nothing), this should be about direct experience. Otherwise you will simply have dogma, which is what most religion is. And then one should not be surprised when completely reasonable people outright reject the existence of God, because of how disgusted they are with religion.

I had exactly the opposite type of reaction. I read roughly 50 pages and I cannot understand what all the fuzz is about, when muslims claim it is the greatest piece of literature on the face of this earth. Just about every single page, I'm told to either believe or I will burn in hell. You are basically being bullied into submission. I understand maybe this is how spirituality was done in the year 600AD, but we have evolved way past that at this point and have better methods at our disposal.

@Leo Gura I mean... there will always be new folks coming into this work who are lost and confused. Or people who think they know more than they actually do. No need to lose your shit over that every single time lol.

This guy's model is pretty interesting. Has a solid streak too.

It just seems very concerning that Joe Biden had basically no ground game, didn't step foot into many of these super tuesday states, didn't spend money on ads and still won. Delegate rich Florida coming up where Biden is 50 (yes, that many) points ahead. Of course, keep working, keep fighting, obviously. But just know what we are going up against and the odds really don't favour our side.

As Robert Reich puts it, the democrats best chance to defeat a fake populist is with the real deal (Bernie Sanders). He doesn't excel in scenarios when there are 10 people on stage and everyone has very limited time to make their points. But 1 v 1 with Trump? He can call him out on all his bullshit that Biden wouldn't be able to do (because Biden is largely guilty of the same things) and what is Trump gonna respond with? Venezuela? Lol.

@Serotoninluv Warren endorsed Clinton after she had become the presumtive nominee.

@Serotoninluv Excellent points, but there is one additional possibility for Warren, which might be the most likely one - stay neutral, which is exactly what she did in 2016. She could just call it quits and then not endorse anybody, trying to appease both the centrists and progressives.

This is looking dark. Plenty of states favorable to Biden (Florida, Georgia etc) are still coming up. Bloomberg will probably drop out, while Warren sticks around to siphon votes from Bernie. We really are fighting an uphill battle here. We will definitely not hit majority now, so it will be a contested convention, where 500 party insiders will have a say on this. Not good.

Amy dropped out and is endorsing Biden. The centrist vote is quickly gathering around Biden and Warren has no plans to quit the race. This doesn't look good.

It's hard to say. It certainly may help Biden in the sense that now, he can reach the 15% viability threshold in majority of the states, cutting into Bernie's delegate grab. At the same time, according to the most recent Morning Consult poll, plurality of Pete's voters list their second choice as Bernie, so who knows what will end up happening.