Raze

The problem is they’d lose donors who are against many popular proposals

The exact same as what Biden would do or any other potential democrat nominee would do

Kamala has an advantage over Biden in that she can usually speak normally, and she may be less associated with Gaza but, her major disadvantage is it will be way easier to associate her with wokeness. They tried to do this with Biden but it never caught it. It’ll be more effective with Kamala.

She is VP… everyone knows who she is. That’s her problem, everyone already has a opinion on her, many on the wrong foot.

Obama hasn’t endorsed her, they’re going to the convention

It doesn’t. She’s a career politician and was Vice President.

Biden and his advisors have more experience than you. Their choice is more accurate.

Trump accepting the early debate will go down as the biggest mistake in political campaigning history. If he just waited to do the regularly scheduled debate in September, Biden would have collapsed but it would be too late for him to drop out, and Trump would have possibly landslided the country.

I think they have a chance with victory with Kamala, unlike with Biden who was going to get crushed. But I think if they nominated popular governors from swing states they’d easily beat Trump. If Trump loses I don’t know whats going to happen. His base is going to flip out, Trump might try to run again in 2028 maybe even as an independent and collapse the Republican Party. At the same time most of the establishment media which props up democrats has been cratering under Biden and will probably be even worse off after 4 more years of a democratic Admin (when trumps in office they actually got a big boost), this combined with democrats not really resolving core issues for one or two more administrations could set the stage for a major red wave in the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPg9qYMjE3Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhWx9lHPjik

The population is basically trapped under three pillars, but they can’t remove one pillar because the other two crush them. Military industrial complex and other lobbies buy politicians - but you can’t regulate them because they buy the politicians who make the regulations The politicians make war and won’t regulate the lobbies - but you can’t vote them out because the media blocks the public from knowing what they’re doing and crushes opposition The media blocks the public from the truth through manufactured consent - but you can’t stop them because you need the media to educate the public to want change but the media itself is stopping this

It’s called preselection.

He didn’t say he manipulated them in that sentence

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Hillary Clinton had far more celebrity endorsements in 2016 and the secular community is larger than the Christina community The issue is you’re concerned with “beating” them and manipulating the public to vote for your side, rather than doing things they actually want so they naturally vote for your side because your side would rather do what it wants . Then it becomes a game of who is the best manipulator rather than who is the best administrator.

Why are you assuming it’s dishonest? It’s possible to have one night stands where both parties aren’t interested in anything long term. Some people even sleep with their exes. I doubt the women he slept with were super into him either.

There is a way, the president has a bully pulpit, Biden isn’t using it or can’t. How can Trump take away your rights or money, what evidence do you have he plans on enslaving 90% of the country in camps? Why didn’t he do that when he was President?

Clinton had worse approvals than Trump and lost to him, Trump had worse approvals than Biden and lost to him. The electoral votes in Florida in 2000 were decided by a extremely small amount of votes, no accurate model can predict that, at best it should call it 50/50. His excuse was that he predicted the popular vote with Gore won by a better margin, but that disputed his 2016 prediction. Lichtman said the keys are based on popular vote as late as Oct 2016 this is how his keys match up for Biden. This has nothing to do with “data”, it’s entirely subjective - why does he list midterm gains as an advantage for Trump? You could argue democrats made gains because they picked up a small amount of seats - why is no primary contest a win for Biden? There was technically a primary. It was small and largely silenced, but it did happen. - why is no third party a win for Biden? RFK is set to do the best a third party candidate has done in a long time, it’s looking like Hreen Party and Cornell West will probably do better than progressive third parties have done in a long time as well - why is strong economy a win for Biden? Most Americans view the current economy as negative https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/views-of-the-nations-economy-may-2024/ - why is no social unrest a win for Biden? We are having plenty of protests on Israel - why is no scandal a win for Biden? Hunter Biden’s laptop was a scandal. The Democrats act about Biden’s health collapsing at the debate was a scandal. - why is uncharismatic opponent a win for Biden? Trump is highly charismatic. His fist pump after surviving the attempt on his life is the biggest example of political charisma in perhaps our entire lifetimes. The keys are also way to limited. What if a presidential candidate has all of these on lock, but comes on tv and airs a video of himself abusing children, by your logic since he only loses the scandal key he must still win. But that makes no sense, one shocking thing can overpower everything else.

No they didn’t, Reagan had a approval rating of 58 prior to the election His keys aren’t based on data because whether many of them apply or not is subjective. They succeeded in past elections because he subjectively labels them to fit the winner. He failed to predict 2000 and argued it’s because the keys predict popular vote, then he predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 and he didn’t but he takes credit for predicting Trumps victory anymore. It is a mediocre prediction mechanism.

The closest poll listed for Truman to this date says 40 approval 44 disproval, your link shows Biden at 38 approval 56 disapproval. More importantly Truman’s approval increased significantly before the election, no indication that’ll happen for Biden. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020 The link I sent you which I am sending here again showed the average of polls pre 2020 election had Biden winning +7, the actual result was he won +4, so they overestimated Biden in 2020, not Trump. Elections that happened 40 years ago and in completely different scenarios are not relevant. What matters is recent polling and long term trends, both do not favor Biden. Your own pasted paragraph here points out how this was a rare event caused by a bad debate performance by Dukakis. The only similarity here is Biden also had a bad debate performance, so again not helping your argument.

He said his system was based on the popular vote but Trump didn’t win the popular vote. https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/ Nothing about his system is based on data, just a subjective definition of what qualifies as keys and missing the possibility of important information like when most people don’t think the candidates brain is working. The choice is lose to Trump badly with Biden, probably still lose but with better odds with Kamala, or probably win with someone else.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201007203743/http://vvhs.vviewisd.net/ourpages/auto/2013/3/20/58198633/keys to the white house.doc