aurum

I would like to know how Lichtman decides who wins each key. How is he objectively determining who is charismatic and who isn't? With the exception of 1-4, the winner of all these keys could easily be challenged. @Hardkill maybe I'm not familiar enough with his model, but I think @Raze is right about this. The winner of each key is definitely subjective. So I struggle to see this as objective science. Also, is he looking at international elections? What about the data from those? In general, it's hard for me to imagine you're going to be able to boil down something as complex as a presidential election down to 13 keys. Lichtman may have a good record, and maybe it is the best prediction model we have. But frankly predicting 10 elections does not prove the efficacy of his system or make it objective science. We would need way more data for that. Open to counterarguments.

Yeah that really looked bad for Cenk. He is getting ripped in the comments.

That's definitely a good rule of thumb and good starting place. But I want to add a few points: 1) Guys bullshit themselves about how they are doing this, when they are not. 2) You want to be mindful that you're not so controlling of her well-being that you actually end up trampling over her autonomy. She is an adult and is allowed to make her own mistakes. You do not necessarily know what is best for her, or get to make that decision for her regardless. So making sure you are acting "in her best interest" is a tough thing to get right. It's not always that clear. This is especially true in a more modern dating environment where women are more empowered. Ultimately I think the best solution to this problem is consciousness work and trauma healing. This will help show you your specific negative patterns in relationships and how you might be hurting the women you are dating. Then it's on you to do the right thing and use your best judgment in any given scenario.

Some good non-dual insights. Some very bad political takes. And yes, his whole scale and AK method is highly questionable at best. Mostly it's just pure bunk. I think he's a good example of how someone can seem to be relatively advanced spiritually but still get much wrong in the relative, material world. These two things are NOT the same. If you want to understand the material world, it's not enough to be woke. You have to specifically study what you want to understand. And even then you will get a ton wrong simply because you are a biased human with limited information, limited education and limited ability to think beyond your conditioning / culture.

You’re totally fine. I did not assume you agreed with their position.

Raze we've been through this already. I'm not getting into it again.

Yeah that was excellent. Bernie also gave a good take in the NYT supporting Biden. Somehow I think they will be more correct on this issue than a leftist streamer.

Talking about security failures I would think is fine. It does look like the Secret Service dropped the ball quite a bit. Conspiracies about insides jobs, no. That would require actual evidence, not just some internet basement theory.

Because as much as they whine about wokeness, the reality is that woke is winning. Their nationalist, monocultural philosophy cannot work. Just the fact that Vivek did as well as he did shows that culture has shifted. He benefits from all the work of those "woke" civil rights activists. Fundamentally they are in a bind. They know they get slammed for being racist and intolerant. And they don't like to think of themselves that way. So in comes the contradictions.

I support a crackdown.

If Trump uses his newfound power then we will cross that bridge when we get there. Right now he has not been elected. So we need to do what we can, within reason, to prevent that. It’s not like you have to do it all. You are one tiny ant that is part of a gigantic colony. You have like .000000000000001 percent responsibility. Just find a particular role that seems useful. Maybe just talk to family and friends about who they are voting for. Maybe post on social media. Maybe make calls or canvas for Biden. I’ve done political canvasing before. It’s not glamorous but it still needs to get done. And then of course there is the obvious task of voting. Yes, voting matters. Even if that’s all you do, you at least contributed.

The intuition of divine intelligence is NOT the problem. That’s actually the part that is correct. The problem is the corruption of this intuition into thinking that God is helping your criminal conman get elected. This is a tale as old as time. Human’s rationalizing the greatest bullshit in the name of “God’s will”. This shouldn’t even need to be explained if you seriously follow Leo’s work. It’s very clearly laid out in his content how this particular self-deception works. Yes, if Bernie dodged a bullet and we all started saying that this proved Bernie was God’s favorite, that would also be corruption. So let’s not do that. The whole function of God is that God cannot have favorites.

It's not hard to discuss at all. I understand what you are saying. It's just a useless position to take on this situation. Who fucking cares if God intervened? God is everything and therefore God is intricately involved in all things at all time. So it matters not. You're trying to make this moment seem special when it's not. Normally I wouldn't care. But the problem is that the right-wing LOVES this narrative that Trump was saved by a divine intervention. And they don't see miracles like you do. They see miracles as rare occurrences that prove Trump should win. So best what you are saying is fairly pointless since most us here already know God is in all things. At worst, you are just reinforcing Trump bullshit.

Dude you need to grow some balls right now. Democracy is not a given. It’s something that needs to be fought for. How do you think we got democracy in the first place? You have some of the better political takes on this forum. Do not waste that. We actually need people who are informed and who care about these issues right now.

Then your definition of miracle is pointless and not worth discussing.

World changing events like the holocaust? I guess you would consider that a miracle too by your definition. You are supporting the right’s narrative that trump is some kind of god-appointed savior. Which is absurd.

I’m talking about excessive corporate power. Predatory capitalism is exactly what JD Vance will help bring about. Even if he theoretically sees himself as supporting the little guy, in practice he will end up supporting oligarchy. Those are very pedantic points that do not have to necessarily exist for fascism. And if you don’t like the word fascism because it doesn’t fit a narrow technical definition, then call it something else. Call it authoritarianism. It’s an attempt to end democracy.

It is a spiritual forum, not a spiritual-idiocy forum. If God moves the figures on the board, then God also made me shit today. Is that a miracle? Where are you drawing a line for what counts as a miracle?

So what? Fascists are always nationalists. More corporatism is exactly what we don’t need. No. People are screaming fascism because criminal con-man Trump has already conspired to overthrown a democratic election. This alone should disqualify him from ever running again. Not to mention all the news that has come out about Project 2025 and SCOTUS. Reagan was like a saint compared to Trump. At least Reagan respected democracy.

Maybe that's part of it. But also consider that the problem for Trump wasn't that Pence was a snooze fest. It was that Pence certified the election. JD Vance solves that problem. He will likely do whatever Trump wants.

Sounds a bit speculative to me at this point still. I responded to the debate debacle by saying people should let it go. The time frame didn’t seem realistic to me and there didn’t really seem to be anyone else who was a stronger candidate. Also, from an optics POV it looks kind of weak if Biden just drops out immediately after the debate. Trump would trash him for that. Ultimately though, if the Dems feel they would have a better shot with someone else than I support it. I do appreciate the 4 year run Biden had but the future matters the most. The most important thing is that the candidate is able to unite the left. No more complaining about how this person isn’t good enough. No more RFK or protest vote nonsense. No more false equivalencies with Trump. No more “can’t it be anyone else?”. Unite and fight. That’s what is needed right now.

That is a conspiracy. Please be mindful of the standards for this forum.

Latest album was really mediocre in comparison to his older work. He is too stuck on what worked in the past. Still doing Ken Kaniff and Paul Rosenberg skits. Still ending songs with "I'm just kidding X, you know I love you". It all feels stale to me. I was really hoping "Death of Slim Shady" meant he was going in a new direction. He could have explored new territory. Instead it was the opposite. Evolve or hang it up I think are his options at this point.

The devilry of Trump has been pointed out ad nauseam since 2016. And to act like it hasn't is deeply disingenuous. The problem is lack of listening, lack of understanding and lack of taking these critiques seriously.

And it may be much more than just an endorsement: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-07-15/musk-plans-to-commit-around-45-million-a-month-to-new-pro-trump-super-pac-wsj-reports