aurum

This is foolish. If you think American foreign policy is bad now, under Trump it will only get worse.

Speaking of moonshots

It's not really that we are talking past each other. I understand their argument and I think they understand mine. We just disagree on certain nuances. Here is their position summarized: "Trump won because people were fed up with the establishment and wanted change, which he tapped into. The democrats could have won, but they selected a more status quo politician like Hilary rather than Bernie. Bernie was actually more popular because he was more anti-establishment and promised people the change they wanted, but he was disadvantaged by the primary which only caters to and is biased towards DNC insiders. Here is polling showing how well Bernie would have done with independents, which shows he could win a general. Here is an article showing that the DNC colluded against Bernie. So if it wasn't for DNC corruption and the two party system, Bernie would have won." ^ It's not a totally unreasonable take. I can see how someone would draw that conclusion. And there's some truth to it. But I am arguing that there are subtler distinctions that are being missed here. If the DNC is corrupt and colluded against Bernie, that is actually proof that he wasn't electable. He couldn't even appeal to enough democrats, which is why they colluded against him. But let's relate all this back to Biden before we derail this thread with Bernie again. BOTH of you believe that Biden doesn't have a chance to win and should probably be replaced. This is not a coincidence, given how you see alternative, anti-establishment candidates like Bernie. You think these people can win. You think people want these candidates. And what I'm suggesting is that's not how it works. Centrists win elections. By the simple fact that elections are about who appeals, often on a superficial level, to the most number of people. That's democracy. And most people are in the center. They are not radicals and they're not progressives. They don't even follow politics all that closely. Of course alternative candidates can still sometimes win elections. But usually their victories tend to be more niche. The more broad you go, the harder it becomes for that strategy to work because you will start alienating more and more people. And the presidency is the ultimate for general appeal. Then you ask, "but then how did Trump win the election? He was such an anti-establishment radical who won because people wanted big change!" And that's exactly why I tried to bash you over the head with the fact that actually Trump catered to American culture quite well. He fits what a lot of SD Blue / Orange people want and plays into the culture war perfectly. There's nothing mysterious about this. Also, consider that Trump WAS, and still is, widely unpopular. He couldn't even become a two-term president. And who did people react and replace him with? Sleepy Joe Biden. One of the most establishment politicians we have. Of course it's possible Trump wins in 2024 and I will have to eat those words. But nonetheless, that Joe Biden won at all shows that most people are not looking for extreme candidates. It's simply not possible for them to succeed. Especially not when it comes to sustainability. You have to appreciate what it actually takes to win a presidential election. No fringe, alternative candidate is capable of this. You have to recognize that, otherwise you will be forever supporting moonshots.

No more on this. We've derailed this thread enough.

That is not change! To call that "change" is a joke. You can use that word if you want, but it's not really change. Change actually requires a new way of doing things and evolving to higher values. Change would be if some evangelical preacher suddenly became an atheist. That would be some serious change. Which is exactly Trump's promise, when you peel off all the bullshit and spin. None of that is what makes someone anti-establishment. To truly be anti-establishment, Trump would have to actually confront deeply held American values. Which of course he never did. Bernie did though. Bernie challenged America. And he lost for it. I will grant you that an "anti-establishment" message can have a surface level appeal. Certainly, Trump was able to tap into people's dissatisfaction. Trump is a narcissistic manipulator and he will twist things however he needs. But if you cut through all the bullshit, fundamentally MAGA people did not want real change. They still do not. That is why it's popular. Trump has no interest in challenging anything fundamental to American culture. That would just make things more difficult for him. The easiest path to power is just to play into what most people already believe in.

Of course I do. It's in the title: MAKE AMERICAN GREAT AGAIN. Again. As in, before. As in, what it was. As in, traditional American values. Trump's whole appeal is to the SD Blue / Orange system. There is nothing radical about this. That IS what America has always been about. Listen to some Trump voters. They pine for the good ol' days. When men were men, and women were women. When we were about Christian values. When people recited the Pledge of Allegiance. When you could drive your gas-guzzling truck and not these liberal woke electric vehicles. Everything about this is establishment. Get it?

No he doesn't. That's your whole misunderstanding. Theoretically, of course you are right. But those things aren't what Americans actually care about. Religion is part of it. It's really the entire SD Blue / Orange value system. YES. Some are. But of course some are more developed. We have a lot of Green people as well. All that would require education and development of the average voter to appreciate and understand. It doesn't matter if your policies are theoretically better for people. What matters is optics.

@Raze these are my final statements about this because we are derailing this thread with Bernie and getting off-topic. You need a sufficient amount of general appeal to win a primary. Yes, Bernie probably appealed to independents in polling because he was more of an outsider. But that's not enough. If you cannot win over the people in your own primary, that shows how little support there actually is for your campaign. You are not going to win a general. The idea that Bernie didn't have enough popularity to win his primary but suddenly would have enough popularity to beat Trump is backwards. Actually, in a sense they did want the establishment. That's what the promise of MAGA is: Make American what it used to be like. Appeal to traditional, conservative Christian values. Fight the "woke" Green culture movement. Embrace capitalism, business and deregulation. Patriarchy, nationalism and white people. This is what we've always had. Trump is exactly what appeals to a mainstream American audience. This is what a huge percentage of Americans believe in. Trump feels like AMERICA to them. Bernie Sanders appeals to none of that. He is in opposition to it. Trump gives the veneer of change, which appeals to people. While Bernie Sanders was actual change. Fake growth vs real growth. The entire "change" that Trump promised, and continues to promise, is essentially to resist SD Green people like Bernie. And he won, even against someone who wasn't as radical like Hilary. That's how much people are interested in maintaining the status quo. Trump is even more status quo than Hilary. The point is that Bernie had less mainstream appeal than either of them.

That's exactly where you have it backwards. Bernie did not have enough general appeal to even win a primary. That's really the correct interpretation. If you make the election even more general and extend it outside of a primary, he would have done even worse. Really consider how radical of a candidate Bernie was for most people. Think about how polarizing he was, and how strongly people reacted against him. Think about how much genuine change he represented and the threat he was to the established ways of doing things. And not "Trump" change, which is really just about faux appealing to SD Blue values, but actual higher values. Then think about Biden and Hilary, both of whom were more established, mainstream, status quo politicians. Who weren't going to push for as much change and who seem like more safe, traditional politicians. THAT is why they beat Bernie. I didn't say "only". I said they had the most mainstream appeal. Which is true. The reality is that even without a two-party system, only one person can win the presidency. And Bernie would have still lost. In a three-way election between Trump, Hilary and Bernie, Bernie comes in last.

Hilary was more electable than Bernie. Yes that's exactly right. And what is the proof? It's the fact that she beat Bernie. No theoretical polling matters when we have the actual results of actual elections. Again, the fact that primary voters are a small fraction of the voting base works AGAINST Bernie. Because the more voters you include, the more mainstream appeal you need. Hilary and Biden both had more mainstream appeal. So they won. The end.

Just because you win over some independents in polling does not mean you will win a general. Look, I like Bernie a lot. In many ways I like him better than Biden. But you have to be realistic about electibility. If Bernie was the more electable candidate, he would have won. Period. Everything else is cope.

That works against Bernie. Because Bernie was more of a niche, radical politician for people in the US. The more general and more people you include, the less of a shot Bernie had.

And that's a great example of how polling can be misleading. Bernie couldn't even secure the democratic nomination, let alone beat Trump. For all the progressives that were upset about Bernie losing, in retrospect I think we need to consider the fact that Joe Biden actually had the better shot of beating Trump. So if you don't like Trump, you should in a sense be happy about Biden's victory. Because otherwise you'd have another 4 years of Trump.

Actually I'd rather we'd debate this. If you think Biden is going to get blown out, then I have to assume you also think it would be a good idea to replace him. This is a serious discussion that needs to be had. It's not something to just shrug off as a difference of opinion.

Bernie is a SD Green progressive, which is unappealing to most people in the US. If he seems like such an obvious choice to you, that's because you are also likely around SD Green.

Interpret the polling how you want. I don’t think a blowout is going to happen.

This is an exaggeration. That's what we've got to work to prevent. Hence why I'm writing what I'm writing. Some of that is probably inevitable. It's more a matter of whether it's enough to actually make a difference. If you are so sure Trump will win and that Biden can't, then please present your superior, alternative solution. Otherwise there is no point going on about this. Just campaign for Biden the best you can and let it go.

Don't turn this into an attack on democrats. Biden's admin was highly successful for the past four years.

Like who? There is no one more popular.

These debates don't matter much in the end. If he dies in office, then Kamala will be president. That's a far superior outcome than Trump winning. I don't like Biden's age either. But this is where we are at. Whether or not it's insulting is irrelvant. Politics is highly pragmatic. It's like you are stepping onto a battlefield. Gavin Newsom is an interesting alternative but I've not seen any indication he will be running. Nor do I have a sense that doing so would even be feasible given our time constraints. Nor do I believe he would necessarily be more popular. So unless somehow that all changes, calls for Biden to step down are just hot air that divide party unity. Some people are doing just that. Right now things are focused on the debate, but people will move on. Speculation. We don't know that.

It won't. His only chance is if Biden dies before the election or drops out. But neither of those things seem likely. In addition, I'm assuming the Dems would just run someone else. In which case he'd still be out.

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance. If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go. What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump. Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well. Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term. Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

That changes nothing in terms of the point I was making.

Absolutely not. Biden has a perfectly reasonable chance of winning. That was true before this debate, and it's still true now. It's very hard to blow your chances that badly, especially when you are the incumbent. You are also not appreciating what kind of campaign it takes to get someone elected president. There won't just be some "issues". It's a complete fantasy. If you have concerns about Biden, that needed to be addressed months or even years ago. The time for these kind of conversations is over.

You have a lot of concurrent issues, so working with someone with a broad scope / skills would probably be a good idea. What have you tried?