LordFall

This post is for @Leo Gura and really any other that believe in an AI crash. I will seek to prove that this is basically impossible and AI companies are already in the too big to fail category and ChatGPT moving towards military industrial complex instead of a business to consumer model is a proof of that. The whole reshoring manufacturing of America over the next 10 years is based on their tech supremacy. Remember the whole meme of american workers retuning to work in factories? Obviously that will not happen and the US will aim to be a robotics and automation leader, which it's already well positioned to do. A K shaped crash will absolutely happen and will serve in further squeezing the middle class into nothing as their labor becomes literally obsolete. Leo your idea that AI value is based on AGI is misguided. AI value prop is based on enterprise workforce. The whole overinflated valuation of the market is based on the premise that AI agents can replace human employees en masse. That premise is still up in the air but as someone who works with AI tools and automation daily I'd say it's already a done deal, the macro forces are just too powerful and humans not adaptable enough. It's also heavily based in the military industrial complex really as you print money to make top tier weapons with which you secure global trade and force countries into doing commerce under your umbrella and get rich off of financialization and exporting the USD. The US has just proved in its Maduro operation and its Iran strikes that their military supremacy is as unchallenged as ever and the whole tech-AI industry fits right into that. Having said this I would say that claiming that an AI bubble crash is imminent or even likely has a MASSIVE BURDEN OF PROOF under it and I invite anybody to try and make an argument and case for it. I'm pretty confident that the corporate layoffs we've been seeing will keep accelerating throughout this year and it's highly likely that Trump and his Tech buddies will introduce some sort of UBI promise this year with the primaries to secure their votes and burry their epstein scandal further.

Also to keep it to a more grounded topic, reminder that 2.3 billion people on earth face moderate food insecurity and hundreds of million are in crisis level or worse. Industrialization has already freed up most of away from agricultural concerns and the coming waves of agricultural automation will I believe help alleviate global food insecurity.

I was talking with Leo today about using AI to make video games and he didn't believe AI would be that helpful so here is my devlog to prove otherwise! I have been ideating this world building project for around 4 months now and mainly using AI for generative images and lore building but I fundamentally wanna make a game out of it as I think that medium is more powerful than something like just a manga or an anime which I do also plan on making eventually. I don't have experience in game development, my main related skills would be in marketing and content creation. I tried my hands at unity a couple months ago and it was I mean not too bad but really frustrating and I got as making this square on the blue background that you see below but it was a very empowering feeling. I really like this video that I watched here That basically warns you about trying to take on an overly ambitious game project and making your dream game right away and instead trying to ship modular projects that work and are profitable and build upon that over years to eventually build your dream game. I like this idea especially as my dream game is a VR web 3 MMORPG, and mmos are notoriously hard to build but I want particularly one with a well developped economy that ties into the real world so I think that will encounter even more novel issues. My current idea is to make a simple 2D roguelite game as a MVP test project and build upon my ideas from this foundation. I think it's possible to bootstrap by myself with just mostly my time and a few hundred dollars of budget in tools to kick things off. I'm gonna use the Unity engine as it's free for startups and seems like a powerful engine both to make the 2D version of the game and eventually transfer the game assets to VR. I think there is a very powerful feedback look that's able to be utilized these days where you take on a project and document yourself building the game(in this context but can be anything) and that serves as your initial userbase and community to launch the game when it's ready. I've followed a few people that did it this way and it seems to be a very powerful way to bootstrap your own game studio basically. I used to play a lot of League of Legends and did got paid for it for a while. Made it to challenger which is top 0.01% of playerbase and that was really fun and I feel like Riot did a great job building a community in their game that was the biggest in the world at that time and I met many friends in real life that also played the game so it was a great social experience as well. I feel that they built a lot of cool stuff around their IP like the show arcane, esports world championship tournaments and local leagues but it fell short of what I think a gaming ecosystem could be. I'm a big believer in web 3 and eco investing in a gaming ecosystem with your playerbase instead of just squeezing them for cosmetics in exchange of a fun consumer experience. For example as a league player I invested something like 20 000 hours into my account, got a lot of rare cosmetics and high rank badges and emblems, spend like $2500 of my own money in the game and if I tried to sell my account it would be worth like $500 at best where as in other game ecosystems like Eve online and games like Counterstrike your time investment is translated to actual assets that are worth tens of thousands of dollars in some cases. Multiple people in different ways talk about the downfall or collapse of the gaming industry, I think it's dramatized as the profits are still there even though a lot of layoffs and downsizing are unfortunately happening in the industry but I do agree that gaming as a whole has stagnated big time. I think web 3, AI agents and VR/AR offer unique opportunities to supercharge the industry and bring it into a new era of glory. Riot Games actually ruined my favorite champion in League of Legends through a rework and thus it actually ruined a big part of my enjoyment of the game so that's also part of my motivation in wanting to develop my own game. There is a massive MMO project that just collapsed last month and I find that very sad as it was a very ambitious project that had a lot of hype in the community but it was ultimately mishandled through overambition, lack of transparency and corruption. I aim to take some of their good ideas and learn from their mistakes. There is also another game that I enjoyed playing that did operate for a while Spellbreak which was a really fun mage PvP game that ultimately fell short of its potential. I really like this mage PvP system so that's a big part of the inspiration for Legend of the Abyss that I wanna carry out. Their mistake was also making it too competitive and not casual friendly which was something that League of Legends managed to do very well. Feel free to subscribe to the Youtube channel for the project here. So far I've only posted basic character concept arts and game concepts but I want to start doing devlogs especially if I managed to build community interest around it. I think AI tools immensely empower small teams and creators to accomplish massive thing and I hope to prove it with legend of the abyss. If you have interest in helping out the project and joining the team I would totally be open to having co-founders on it!

@Leo Gura Flying cars are out now you can buy one today $200K. Not legal to fly over a city or airspace though

Did you read the article? OpenAI is going public soon so they're not expecting to hold another round of crossover investment. OpenAI is gonna go public right as it gets hit with defence contracts that Anthropic lost so I don't see how this is bearish for them or the AI industry.

According to AI that scenario is possible but less likely than a total war over the middle that lasts years. I hope you're correct but our guy Prof Jiang is much more pessimistic than you are. Next target according to him will be destroying the desalination plants of gulf state countries and leading to a mass chaos across Saudi Arabia and other big cities. Remember Shia muslims are only 10% of muslims 90% are the Sunni their enemies so for them a multi year chaotic war is the goal and prophecy of their religion.

I mean it's a power law meaning that the more this compounds the more women will drop their standards and date the guys that do go out so it's an equilibrium. I think it's mostly good for all parties involved, dating is gonna become more intentional now. If you want a girlfriend the AI will tell you which venues are most popular and help you debrief your nights out and if you can't be bothered then you'll get a high quality virtual intimacy experience as well. For women that date and just want a companion for their life it's gonna be plenty of dudes available like usual and for the ones that have more refined tastes it's gonna be more of a hunt but I think they still find solid partners that they're into. And being in a cool rich dude's harem is a good choice I think for the right woman that will be a very fun lifestyle. A lot of women are bi remember so being in a polycule would be an optimal scenario for them.

Good update on the ammunition situation in terms of the anti air systems in the gulf states and how they're running out.

@UnbornTao Humans also struggle to get basic information right and are less prone towards improving. @Leo Gura Young men struggling with dating is not the only nor probably main market for this. Plenty of elderly people are not in relationships and struggle with intimacy. Women are having a huge dating crisis as well. I don't think you should simply judge it as pathetic incels. It's just the road to least resistance. Equally AI can coach you into getting a high quality companion. What percentage of the population do you think has read a dating book in their life today? Why would they get a dating coach, they'll just take the predictable consumer solution to the problem. It's a weird future but it will be personalized so you get to pick what you want. To me I like the harem idea so I will date many women and I mean why not an AI girlfriend on top seems fun. The sky is the limit.

Yes it seems our minds got carried away by a philosophical discussion on the value of AI titties and as you guys can read my position is clear, brother Leo is misguided in undervaluing them but to each their own. I think you're correct that governance and policy is gonna shape this whole issue. They could handle it well and if/when mass layoffs occur have social programs in place to operate a transition or there could be more of a slow standards of living collapse until things a breaking point which historically happens at around 20-30% unemployment rate. @Lazarus93 Once again what do you define as AGI? The era of AI agents majorly changing the economy will happen much before AGI. You can already have claude code work on your pc 24/7 and extract economic value on your behalf and buy a whole server to run 50 different instances of it with different objectives that each learn from eachother. Here's a funny one, how soon til we get the first Robot Police robots patrolling US streets? I predict that will be a huge issue with how sensitive policing is in the US but I mean it does make sense in the end perhaps it will be more reliable than human cops. I think by 2030 they start pilot projects around it in smaller cities and by 2035 it's common.

Not a chance. Crypto is being integrated into the US banking and financial system as we speak and is a big part of how the current administration is working to preserve US global financialization. Clarity Act is gonna pass the US senate at any time now. Stable Coin companies own a massive about of US Treasuries and they are in deep with the administration which just gained control of the federal reserve. Trump is gonna print massive amounts of cash to fund his new war and pump the shit out of crypto to make his family trillionaires. I would absolutely get into the crypto market right now, mark my words and hold me accountable to the price of Bitcoin $73K USD today being way higher 6 months from now September 4th 2026.

I think we've already started going towards post labor economics we just have to define a debate on how quickly it'll affect unemployment rates and if UBI systems will be in place. Alex Karp CEO of Palentir is already talking about nationalization of AI and the Canadian Senate is going over UBI bills right now with Bill S-206 so it is a known issue that's already in process. https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1rkavqr/ceo_of_palantir_youre_stupid_if_you_do_not_think/ https://x.com/SulkinMaya/status/2028866859756408867 https://www.parl.ca/legisinfo/en/bill/45-1/s-206

Well yeah you can pretty much guarantee it turns the dating market even more hypergamous and polyamory takes over especially combined with the K shaped recovery that I mentioned in the original post. It's a good thing if you're a motivated man, the average man is doing worse than ever so might as well date many women I agree.

@Leo Gura That's why crypto and blockchains exist to transact outside of a locked national currency system and there are many ways for savy people to get around tech bans like VPNs, Proxies and TOR network. AI gives the average person leverage against state run institutions. An organization of 20 people running $10K of hardware and AI tools can have the impact of a previously $1B organization in narrow focuses I believe.

I mean we have to define the nature of the argument we're having in regards to game dev. All I'm saying is AI agents and AI generative graphics will massively enhance what a single or a small team of developers can do. Really good thing for that industry as well as Movies/Anime that can now be done by a few creative individuals instead of being gatekepts by the big studios that produce mass mass market nonsense. Also have to define what we have by AGI like what is the benchmarks that qualifies as such for you guys? We aren't even close to what massive increases in compute would do with the current architecture that we have today let alone the pile of cutting edge frameworks that have not been implemented yet like Spiking Neural Networks, Liquid Neural Networks and Hyperdimensional Computing. There is just no way that we will see a crash in the likes of the 2008 subprime crash. It's just a different sector of the economy the cascading effects of a few tech companies going bankrupt wouldn't have nearly as big of an effect. The 2020 covid crash tanked the S&P 500 30% in a few weeks and halted the whole global economy and the recovery was swift, any AI crash would be much smaller then that. It's not an or but an and. You can have "sex" with porn just fine right? People will pursue real companions alongside real ones and that will be a new dynamic to navigate and some people will replace it entirely. This is not a hypothetical btw. Apparently a third of american teenagers have tried an AI relationship and over 500,000,000 people in china are in some form of emotional support relationship with a platform. I mean it also changes the definition of girlfriend, you mean someone who you fuck or someone who is part of your daily life? I don't consider Google my girlfirend but I tell gemini a lot about my states of mind and ideas and goals and dreams for the future and it remember them and gives me its thoughts daily. Also consider that the next big consumer platform is augmented reality glasses. So you will have even your AI platonic as a human character that is in the room "physically" with you and could literally go walk down the street with you or go to the club. The transition will be pretty seemless from an agent that you consult on your marketing strategy to your accounting strategy to what outfit suits you better to what you should eat to sitting with you in the restaurant. Whether you choose to call that agent your partner and entangle it in your sex life is up to you but I would seriously bet that pretty much all of us will. That's just one type of alternative relationship that is gonna keep growing. I would call the onlyfans girls phenomena a relationship dynamic of its own, its human woman selling the visuals and idea of her sexuality and intimacy to masses of male and a tech platform facilitating the exchange. There is also couples that fuck eachother and others on camera and financialize their lifestyle that way instead of fitting into a regular corporate/social structure. Prime example Lena the plug and Adam 22. It's a direct result of tech platforms allowing their relationship to unfold in different ways. 21t century is the century of abundance. Abundance of money, abundance of relationship potential. Of course to the average conservative it's doomsday but I mean to each their own version of utopia. You have more freedom than ever as an individual. And you are pretty much now today at the point where you can ask Claude code help me build a $1M/year revenue lifestyle freedom business and it'll work with you daily to achieve it.

Leo I don't know what to tell you man I think think you're basically close to 100% out of the loop on this. You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. Why do you reduce AI agents's potential in gaming to quirky dialogue? You could make an alternative american Civil war campaign where the confederates somehow allied with Canada and Mexico against the Union and have a whole alternative history plotline with characters that live out a 24 hour storyline with real strategy and twitsts where players log in to take part of an ongoing campaign. So many cool ideas that were never possible beforehand. The game I wanna make will simulate a fantasy 15th century europe with active AI agents that operate jobs and labor for a crypto token with a whole simulated economy. That level of game has never been close to being possible before. Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. It won't transition to a weird dystopia it'll just empower people to have more intentional relationships on their terms. Human connections will be more powerful than ever. Do you really put human relationships on such a pedestal? A lot of couples you could literally plot their conversations on a flowchart and be accurate in a majority of cases, consciousness has patterns. That's the whole idea of pickup you can go out and have the same conversations over years with 100% different people because conversation threading is pretty similar across people.

Simply not true. AI tools can already be put together to automate simple tasks in common businesses like for example AI receptionists. I would not underestimate how quickly this will spread because of how efficient it is. If I have one dentist as a marketing client servicing 100 of them is a huge expense and will eventually kill margins which is why most marketing agencies have a soft ceilling at around 10M annual revenue. Installing the exact same app across 100 dentists that gets progressively better each month as I enhance it's workflows and new models comes out makes these deployments exponentially scalable. It's not foulproof yet but it's already being sold en masse today, I was thinking of getting into that business. Software companies build AI solutions that AI service providers then resell and that same revolution is coming to enterprise software and basically most of the tasks employees do. Most junior employees are not that useful they do very standardizable tasks. The way LLMs are trained and employees are trained towards reducing errors hopefully towards 0 is a similar framework. The biggest bottleneck right now is model hallucination and lack of coherence that previously bottlenecked long term AI Agent deployment but their capacity has already way improved and is doing so by the day. How much have you played around with these AI models they're way more advanced and useful than they seem. They already reduce workload drastically. I'm starting to use them for boring cashflow businesses but also for my web 3 VR MMORPG passion project. AI agent NPCs in gaming are gonna be a huge revolution and an interesting tangent to the AI boyfriend/girlfriend. You will be able to get an AI girlfriend witch that goes on a multi month long raid with you and remembers all conversations and your daily struggles that you share with her. That same compute memory is gonna be what's used to replace tech workers en masse and soon enough physical workers with robotics en masse. There are so many ways to monetize this that I think the lack of product market fit that most of companies are experiencing right now is very close to ending.

@zazen Sure but keep in mind western platforms are freeer than their counterparts you can't compare them on equal footing. Libertarianism and the freedom of the individual against the repression of the collective is most alive in the united states over any other nation on earth as far as I'm aware. To the point where it's detrimental to themselves but the US can stand on moral high ground in terms of calling out repression in pretty much any other nation state. @Vynce You cannot keep your country isolated in the 21st century nor could you ever really. Isolationist policies will be crushed by alternatives once they come forth. Soon America will start exporting its AI agents that can run without an internet connection and contain the whole internet within them in a $50 device and this will eventually bring down any sort of internet firewall the russian, chinese and north korean included. Our species will be united before the turn of the century. Our incentives towards unity are much greater than towards mutual destruction or even a prolonged cold war situation.

I think you make some good points but are ultimately incorrect. Western values are not "western" they are basically the bastion of democracy and standardized democracy in a box. This is why western and particularly british culture was so efficient at colonization because their culture is built on harmonizing a great group of people. You cannot make a credible towards the legitimacy of the Iranian government while ignoring that they govern WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF THEIR PEOPLE AND HAVE TO SHOOT THEM TO KEEP THEM IN LINE. Say about them what you will but 1 person getting shot by American authorities creates national crisis. In other big states like China this level of government repression is accepted and carefully handled and managed. If you gave each individual human on earth freedom of speech, autonomy and leverage to act against it's government most national governments on earth would crumble but the western ones would be the most resilient as they already most represent the will of its people. Not that it's a perfect system the US and the west as a trust based societies are collapsing but a great part of that is due to harmonizing global populations mostly successfully.

Right now I do actual photoshoots with light retouching with Photoshoot/lightroom/Faceapp. It's been shown to me though that people can replicate full photoshoots with just living room face pictures at a fraction of the cost and similar if not better results so I have to do my own tests and be able to produce the cutting edge AI pictures to remain industry leading. I thought it would come up as fake but unless you go overboard I know a guy who got a GF off of fully AI pictures and over multiple dates with different women didn't come up as a topic of conversation.

I have to learn how to produce high quality AI pictures of clients and also some kind of real life socialization component to stand on top of the marketplace. I do dating photography as one of my businesses.

You think they're doing it out of the concern for the mental health of their citizens? They have their own platforms like VK, OK.ru and Telegram. They do it to control the tech platforms their citizens use for maximum tracking and surveillance. Just like China does and how Trump made his own apps. Smart strategy but bad for their citizens. You would hope as a citizen to have access to global communications network and news. If China undid their great Chinese firewall it would probably singlehandedly bring down their regime. I believe all these closed systems will soon fall and humankind will unite under one system. Cryptocurrency and blockchains are the start of such a system.

I've been working on my business for a couple years now and I like some stuff about how I'm positioned (photographer + personal branding for single men) but there's a few things I don't like about it mainly the small ticket price per transaction and the client quality. I currently have one main client who I recolated to a new city to work with and it's been a really cool experience as he's a multimillionaire in his mid 40s so every conversation with him is a learning experience whereas when I deal with my average client it's more of a coaching experience which leaves me drained at the end of it. Alex Hormozi talks a lot about ideal so it's something I've been thinking about for a while. I also have been looking into AI agents and how to use that to improve the leverage in my business and give me more time freedom. I have a friend which I met here in Canada that now mainly lives in Madrid spain and we've been talking about business we could do together and I got the idea of an expat business to help people tired with the cold climate in Canada to have a more fun European lifestyle and relocate themselves or diversify their assets into it. I don't have too much experience in the financial industry but it is an area I've sent hundreds of hours studying over the past couple years due to my interest in crypto. My main business skillset right now is 1) online lead acquisition through ads and 2) content production. If I enhance those 2 skills with the AI agents and pivot my niche to the expat business to aim for a higher lifetime value per client, I came to the conclusion that a main moat I will have over my competitors is transparency and truth. It will ultimately come to being a people and relationship based business where truth and integrity is paramount otherwise the value proposition I would offer is nill if not negative. It's a cool way to think about it as I see a lot of people on here overthink morality, ethics and truth in your business. Ultimately what you're selling in life is your time and how you allocate it to the other humans on the planet so I think that as long as I keep my integrity high and my value high to my new customer segmentation I think it'll be a success. I will keep you guys updated on this new business venture and if you're interested in reading or watching my thoughts more in depth I have a business journal I started in the journal section of the forum a couple of weeks ago tracking my progress. I hope to inspire other new and current entrepreneurs in identifying their north star values in their own entrepreneurial ventures and how deviating from them can ruin the foundational value of our products and services.

Awesome that's a good start. A good tip is to start posting 2 reels every single day about it. Depending on your editing skills it should get you 200-1500 views per reel. You can post 2 a day and then also repost the same pieces of content on Tiktok/Youtube shorts and now you have 6 pieces of daily content daily so 42 weekly, which is probably way more than you're doing now. It's a simple content workflow I've been using for the lifestyle podcast Youtube channel I manage and it works pretty well in terms of value per time of work invested.

Which part of what he said do you think is demonstrably false?