Leo Gura

But even if you have infinite free power, so what? If AI cannot replace jobs then energy breakthroughs cannot change that. The problem is going to be this: Companies will try to replace workers with AI, it will seem like it's working at first, but a few years down the road every company will realize that the products and services built via AI aren't worldclass, aren't competitive, making AI almost worthless. That's when the crash comes. This is a debate about the inherent value of chatbots without AGI. Are chatbots without AGI worth trillions upons trillions? I don't think so. But I could be wrong about that.

That is because there is just so much more text as training data. The more training data, the easier it is to fake the illusion of AGI. These tech companies are using the massive availability of intelligent text on the internet to create extremely convincing illusions of AGI that is fooling 90% of people. But without AGI you cannot truly replace jobs, and what can be replaced becomes commoditized and almost worthless. If you can just build a world-class app with a few prompts, then apps are now worthless. Say goodbye to apps-building as a business. What people are not realizing is that whatever AI can do is no longer a viable business. If I can code full self-driving cars with a few AI prompts, then Tesla self-driving is worthless. The reality is that AI cannot build anything worldclass.

I don't think this is a valid argument because nuclear energy takes decades to build. You can't get significant new nuclear energy production without 5-10 years of build-out. This bubble cannot wait that long. A better argument is that all these trillions of dollars invested into tech will somehow lead to a lucky discovery of AGI. For the AI bubble to not pop, AGI needs to be discovered within the next 3 years. Is that possible? Yes. Would I bet on it? Hell naw.

I am going to argue against myself here: It is possible that the bubble will not pop because there is simply so much money invested in tech that there's really nowhere else for that money to go. Where will investors park all their money? Into cash? That's bad due to inflation and low yield. In gold? Gold cannot hold that much money. Also, tech companies are so profitable that they can afford to lose hundreds of billions and still stay solvent. Google makes something like $100 billion per quarter! Google can make back a $500 billion loss in 1 year. Be careful not to assume that a crash is inevitable. It may not be.

The bubble may not last that long. But certainly that's a reasonable crash-point.

I have not. But I worked a lot with visual AI and know its limitations very well. The bottom line is that your chatbot is not truly intelligent no matter how good it is. It can write you some code but it cannot do a job. Nah. A proper crash doesn't happen in a week or a month. A proper crash takes 1-2 years at least to play out. Go back and look at the crash charts for 2000 and 2008. It took a long time for the recovery to start. Recovery does not start within a month because the entire mood flipped. When a true crash happens, the mood of all investors turns bearish and so negative that no one wants to invest, everyone is caught in a conformist doom-spiral for at least a year. When a real crash comes, people will be in so much pain they will vow never to invest again. That is what creates the bottom. When your retirement fund is 20% of what it used to be, that's when the doom comes. A crash should also bring with it a bunch of money-printing and inflation.

High value according to what women need to survive. Women are not so original that they all need something different to survive. They all need the same basic things, which is why they chase after the same top guys. Figure out what women need to survive that they can't provide for themselves and you will know what they're attracted to. Nothing creative is going on here.

@Carl-Richard In psychology there is a well known phenomenon called rosey retrospection. Even WW2 can look romantic in retrospect from a distance. The mind forgets the most ugly parts of the past. What book is gonna portray the rape and pillage of pirates accurately?

Yeah, but attraction ain't logical.

I don't want to give direct investment advice. But having all your money in stocks today is crazy to me.

Problem with Reddit is not the scrolling but the clicking. I don't want to click click click click to scan a thread. Reddit's design is bad. It actively hurts navigation. I use Reddit less because it is so stupidly over-nested. Clicking 20 times to read a thread is wrong.

In general that's very good. But right now the USA housing market is inflated, so I would not buy real estate before the AI bubble crashes. Wait till the AI hype dies down. You will find much better deals. Wait a few years.

Pickup/game trains up both. You need to masculine but not in a way where you are verbally and emotionally unexpressive. You can be stoic in certain ways, but not in your facial and verbal expression. You need to be able to hold emotionally stimulating conversation. Logical conversional is what kills attraction. But you can be masculine in the other ways. Bottom line: Don't be so masculine that you're boring, robotic, and serious all the time.

I call this: Every culture whitewashes its past. "Slavery was actually good for the slaves." It's also a great example of how cartoonish self-bias is.

Of course. Because women are emotional creatures. They don't care about anything else. But still. They are attracted to raw masculinity too. They will sleep with stone-cold men just because of the masculine vibes. But then later they will regret it because that stone-cold guy will not be capable of intimacy, which she truly craves. Who women sleep with and who they stay with are different things. They will sleep with a Terminator but he's not boyfriend material. Women are looking for a paradox: a stone-cold guy who is also very intimate and emotionally stimulating.

Yes. Warren Buffet is majority cash right now. He's been that way for 2 year. So have I. Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities. Yup. If you made a profit. I would rather pay tax than sit through a 50% collapse.

Mostly out of my ass. However, less than 99% of mankind has Awakened, so it's safe to say they ain't got the talent for it. You need to somehow explain why Awakening is so rare and difficult for most people. The explanation cannot be: they just aren't trying hard enough -- because that begs the question. Why aren't they trying harder? Why aren't more people Awakening effortlessly? Why do most people fail to Awaken even after doing multiple hardcore meditation retreats? Why aren't most meditators God-Realized? Yeah, but human beings don't have an upgradable luck stat. If I could pay money to upgrade my luck stat in life, I definitely would.

Yes, exactly. It is a tool that requires an expert tool-user with true intelligence and creativity. I have no problem when a truly intelligent and creative person leverages AI to speed up work. That is healthy. I did most of that 1.5 years ago. But I still have a bit left in stock and crypto. I need to sell it all before it is too late. I was hedging my bet a bit. But even that hedge now looks too risky. The crash could happen any day now. I would not be surprised if it happens tomorrow.

Sorry for your loss. But 13 years is a solid full life.

Guys. Do not just copy and paste AI here. I want to see your own original thinking, not parroting AI.

You are right, but I err on the side of caution on such a serious issue. Seeing how the human self is entirely imaginary is genuinely very challenging for 99% of people. It will not happen easily unless you are very lucky, and I never suggest people make luck a strategy.

Even that is too optimistic. A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs. If 70% of jobs are replaced, you better be prepping for WW3.

It's God-science, which is harder.

If AI bubble pops, crypto markets will nose dive. Crypto will be hit the worst. Sell your crypto before AI pops. If AI pops, Bitcoin will go down to $20k, I predict. That is the perfect time to re-buy it. Although re-buying cheap tech stocks is even better.

That will not work for most people. Not even close. You are taking for granted your spiritual genetics.