Leo Gura

It is too profound for darkness for me. But might work for you. I find you get more out of it eyes-open.

That possibility is certainly not lost on me. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. But buying into a historic hype cycle is crazy-stupid if you worked hard for your money. Investing requires sober, conservative thinking. Not hype, hope, and greed. If I miss the AI boom, that's not going to hurt as much as crashing out. So I err on the side of caution. The upside now is too low and the downside too high.

I would argue that calling it intelligence is disingenuous because it has memorized 2000 years of human knowledge. That allows it to fake intelligence very very well. It is like you trained a computer to memorize the answer to every multiple choice test that has ever been written. And now it sure seems like it can pass every test. But that is disingenuous because it doesn't actually know how to pass a test. There is a fundamental disconnect between intelligence and cramming LLMs with more data. These are not the same thing at all. No amount of data makes you intelligent. But if you memorize all of Wikipedia, you sure can pass as intelligent in most circles. But not in my circle.

I don't think anyone knows. It's all just guess-work. AGI could be 5 years away, or 50 years away, or 500 years away. Or maybe computers will never be able to do it. I don't know. If AGI happens, you should expect bad shit to happen. I don't mean that AI will hurt us. I mean humans will eat each other alive. So I am hoping AGI will not happen soon. Our political situation is not mature enough for something so serious. The bubble popping is the best case scenario here. Look, in the end, your guess is as good as mine. On this AI topic I have no particularly special position to speak from, like I do on the topic of God. Mostly I just want to avoid losing a bunch of money in a hype cycle.

That is not happening with current chatbot. Only if AGI.

Well, Hallelujah.

Correction: I had the bottle, but looks like I threw it out at some point. I decided not to use it. You never know. It might do more harm than good.

The situation is that I do research more than coaching.

I have a bottle of liquid gold on my shelf.

Okay, but if everyone can do that, it has very little value. Anything that's easy becomes worthless in business. The market will get flooded with mediocre AI slop creations. Why would they be worth anything? Today you still have an edge because AI is so new that 99% of people don't know how to use it yet. But in 10 years every fool will be using it to create slop. I don't think you guys quite appreciate how serious this value-add issue is. If AI can truly do what humans do, then humans have no value-add, which means humans are no longer necessary. You better hope for your sake that AI cannot replace you. Because if it can, you're as good as dead. Not because it will kill you, but because you are useless. If you think that you will get to be useless and still survive, you're kidding yourself. Useless things don't survive for long. Do you really think these billionaires care about helping useless things survive?

He was giving you the wrong chemical You can't trip balls on gold.

Correction: Earlier in this thread I said the gold EFT is called GDX. That was a mistake. It is called GLD.

Did you become a Jedi?

The problem I find with using AI to do creative work is that you end up wasting way too much time trying to get the AI to create what you want, and it never really creates what you truly wanted. But you wasted 10 hours fiddling with the knobs. By the time you invested 10 hours into it, you're hooked. But it isn't really creating what you wanted. Such a process is the death of creativity and spirit. Rather than being truly creative and skillful, you are just manipulating knobs to get half-assed approximations of something good. Using AI is almost like gambling. At least that's the case for image generation. It takes hours of trial and error just to create one usable image.

Interesting. I hope it's worth it.